Lauri Hälikkä

Macro trading, ex rates & currency strategist.
Economics, financial markets & investing enthusiast.
Opinions are my own.

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

@KakkonenLauri Hei kaima! Kun kerran törmäsin sinuun täällä, niin kysynpä että oletteko miettineet kuinka äänenvaimentimen saisi lukittua piippuun? Vaimennin kun löystyy hieman niin tarkkuus kärsii rajusti - viikko sitten meinasi jäädä kauris saamatta… vaimenninta kun ei aina muista kiristää.

[NATO @NATO]

Repost to join us in celebrating our Ally 🇫🇮 Finland on their Independence Day!

#WeAreNATO 🤝@FinlandatNATO

[Jarcce @RomppainenJari]

Our 12 months in Lapland Finland 🇫🇮😄

[Students For Liberty @sfliberty]

Everyone says their own country should be more like Sweden.

Bernie Sanders built his campaign around it. AOC points to it constantly.

But if you really want to "be like Sweden," you'd have to abolish property, inheritance, and wealth taxes, cut corporate rates, and privatize Social Security with individual accounts. 🧵

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers is usually a better predictor of future GDP growth.

It includes:
Personal consumption: +1.8%
Business fixed investment: +9.8%
Residential investment: +1.3%

https://t.co/NE9qe1f4Ye

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in Q1.

The underlying numbers are very extreme--with an enormous increase in imports and inventories.

My preferred measure of "core GDP" a better signal, up at a 3.0% annual rate (see next)

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

I will adopt these words to my market commentary.

The president said that the reaction to the tariffs was getting a bit “yippy”

“I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy,” Trump said Wednesday about the bond market.

https://t.co/3SxqSe0YAY

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

Parahin @Alko_Oy mikä selittää a) yli 50% hintaeron Ruotsiin ja yleiseurooppalaiseen hintatasoon sekä b) tuon yhden sentin?

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

Finland has conducted a cyber operation in Sweden.

[Eurovision News @EurovisionNewZ]

🇸🇪 KAJ won “Melodifestivalen 2025” and he will represent Sweden in #Eurovision 2025 with the song “Bara Bada Bastu”

[Patrick Collison @patrickc]

Great piece from Mario Draghi: https://t.co/S00hPuY0NO.

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

Gotta love EU. Do everything you can to disincentivize real growth and maximize inefficient public waste schemes to cover up bad policies, resulting in ballooning debt.

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

The Italian SuperBonus: How a badly designed fiscal "stimulus" ballooned to 6 times its budget to cost 12% of Italy's GDP, and what it tells us about the fiscal governance of Europe.

A thread on my Silicon Continent post.
(1/11)

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

@elonmusk Is @netflix making a documentary about this effort?

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

@MichaelAArouet A good working hypothesis is CDU/CSU and AfD neck to neck at around 25% each

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

@AnnaEconomist ”Trump pivot” implies that Trump, together with Bessent, is worried about deficits and long rates. Moreover Bessent wants to issue more long-term debt and less bills which makes him need Musk’s DOGE efforts even more. It all comes together and is very healthy for the markets.

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

@ATabarrok @elonmusk Everybody and their mother agreed the US was clearly on the path to bankruptcy until @DOGE showed up

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

@vonderleyen The time was 15 years ago, just wonder what happened recently that finally woke politicians up to worry the miserable situation Europe is in?

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

The only sad thing about the DeepSeek and the AI race is that Europe has nothing to do with it.

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

DeepSeek and what happened yesterday: Probably the largest positive tfp shock in the history of the world.

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

@KurronenS https://t.co/HRQsimJxxX

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

@CliffordAsness @JohnHCochrane When will John visit Mar-a-Lago @realDonaldTrump ?

[Lauri Hälikkä @LauriHalikka]

So it turns out that AI's economic effects do not differ from other productivity enhancing technology in any way

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

A great post summarizing the (so far, quite positive) evidence on the impact of AI on jobs. In contrast to @DAcemogluMIT's fears, @XJaravel , Aghion and Bunel find:
-Positive, large, productivity effects of AI.
-Positive impact on job creation.