Emotional Investor

Personal wealth manager on Robinhood

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@MadAboutSkin01 how does EV look bad in Ohio? most of the red counties are keeping up fine and Cuyahoga is lagging a bit - and Dems really need to run up the score there to win. it's also going to get redder next week as more IPEV keeps offsetting all those mail ballots

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@KVOhio @RealSKeshel @TonerousHyus he is comparing to 2024, a year when much fewer Dems participated in the primary (it was just Joe Biden running again - this was before he dropped out)

there is no party registration in Ohio, you get a D or R flag based on your primary participation. else you are "unaffiliated"

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@DRvulupa @GrantMa25066011 if you stopped and counted the votes right now, it wouldnt be. but there is still a week+ of early voting where R's will likely close the margin + election day

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@Hadassahnyod @twcroy3 @RealSKeshel are you an 8 year old? you shouldnt be on here

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@1980Khoa would like to see GOP do better next week though. they have to start eroding the Dem mail firewall.

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@GreggDNB_7 @Statismsux @chris_x2k3 @mattforney I can think of multiple races just this year where the betting markets were way off. Francisca Hong primary. Abdul primary (he barely won). Lula in Brazil. Vindman in Florida. Massie in Kentucky. probably some I'm not thinking of too.

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@GabNek12 @earlyvotedata the polling places in the cities stay open later

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@SullisBack @hamn_matt55472 @RealSKeshel @CAtoTX32 in 2024 hardly any Dems voted in the primary

there is no party registration in Ohio, it just depends on if you voted in a primary. otherwise you are "unaffiliated"

there is no 20% swing when you account for that. in fact, I'd say that R's are doing better.

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@mpukita Ohio does not have party registration. you get flagged if you participate in a primary. hardly any Dems participated in the Dem primary in 2024 because it was just Biden running again (before they replaced him)

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@BenStone1066 @MWpatriot01 @wiz_political there is something about Wisconsin that turns these guys into total doomers

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@FullyReporting @TonerousHyus it's just the IPEV trend. it excludes the mail-in ballots

D's do well with mail-in ballots, then R's eventually chip away at their lead with IPEV

iirc, in 2024, R's and D's were essentially tied by election day in early vote. then Trump went on to win state by ~15

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@TonerousHyus @Peachorino we will get another Selzer poll on Nov 1st showing Turek up by 10. it's coming

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@MathewKheyfets @JakeSnake4321 @earlyvotedata you always find a way to doom. why not just take a break for the next two weeks? you cant change the election one way or another

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@chriswithans you should just bet on R's keeping Senate. if Collins and Rogers are winning, R's aren't losing it

and you get around the same odds, with multiple paths

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@captive_dreamer patriot

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@chriswithans they are actually showing a lead for Jon Huster. we dont know how Husted is doing

i will look forward to their polling of Ray Copper next

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@MWpatriot01 OK i guess we will be mystified once again when all these magical Republican voters appear in Iowa for the 6th cycle in a row since 2016 and the polls underestimate them

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@sethjlevy oh wow the polls start to tighten / show the Republican winning the final 2 weeks of October? thats crazy who would have guessed

[Emotional Investor @LeveragedFun]

@wes48103 @TonerousHyus she already did endorse, but it was a very half hearted "vote for all Democrats" sorta thing iirc