Saw some memory FUD resurface on Nvidia $NVDA reducing memory on its shipped Rubin Ultra in 2027 than originally planned.
One thing that needs to be reiterated is that $NVDA is not reducing HBM. They are reducing SOCAMM capacity for its Rubin Ultra in 2027, mainly because there simply isn't enough. Second reason is to lower costs per rack.
Is this bearish? No, it mostly underlines the unprecedented shortage in DRAM, which won't get better in 2027. NVIDIA wants to guarantee that the racks can be shipped, and it does so by reducing SOCAMM capacity.
SK hynix $SKHY, Micron $MU and Samsung $005930.KS are at the forefront to profit from the DRAM shortage, which will only become worse in 2027.
I ran the numbers on the memory oligopoly.
Samsung $SSNLF + SK Hynix $SKHY + Micron $MU control 90% of DRAM.
Add Kioxia + Sandisk $SNDK and you basically own the high end too.
Combined market cap $3.3T.
Next year profits ~$550-600B.
18% earnings yield. S&P is under 4%.
Shortage runs into 2028.
Still feels mispriced.