Lewis Porter

Markets push, processes prevail. PS I’m flying by the seat of my pants, buts at least I’m strapped in!

[Samuel Lee @svrnco]

Jensen and Elon could lobotomize NVIDIA. Spin up a new venture at a $200B valuation, hire away the best 5% of NVIDIA, then leverage Jensen's tight relationship with TSMC to get the best wafer supply.

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@liquiditygoblin Agreed but funnily enough saw one exception Nike outlet selling off Alpha flys 3s for 84£ the other week selling for more on eBay… good arb ?😂

Only really start to feel a slight benefit with leg turn over sub 7:30mi / 4:40km pace anyway. Cheap comforts for volume 👌🏽

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

By nature of being a vol trader, I’ve studied many different market crashes. Not just the common ones in the U.S., but episodes like Britain in 1720, Vienna in 1873, and the Dutch tulip mania of 1637.

There are some interesting behavioral takeaways that aren’t entirely intuitive unless you participate in markets every single day.

One of the biggest for me is that large market moves often need two-way action to develop. Behaviorally, you need participants willing to take the other side, because their eventual need to unwind can help accelerate the move. It’s almost like storing energy that gets released later. To create that dynamic, a “gray catalyst” can be particularly powerful one whose implications aren’t immediately black and white.

Here are two examples that helped produce massive moves in opposite directions that had gray area headlines that led to that two way flow.

COVID (March 2020): What often gets lost in the sauce is that many participants were aggressively betting against the idea that COVID would be severely disruptive. As stocks fell, they bought the dip and sold vol. When stocks kept falling and vol kept rising, some of those positions became fuel for the next leg of the move as participants were forced to unwind.

Looking back, the outcome seems obvious. In real time, the eventual scale of the disruption was far from clear. There was HOPE that it would pass quickly. Headlines about potential treatments, policy support, or a less severe impact repeatedly gave investors reasons to step back in. Stocks would rip 5% higher immediately on that news and hope, only to reverse again even lower when more negative news hit.

Those rallies matter. They give existing longs a reason to stay and new buyers a reason to enter. When the recovery fails, there is another round of positioning that may need to come out. Without that back-and-forth, it can be harder to produce the same degree of forced selling. The uncertainty helps keep replenishing the other side.

Meme mania (January 2021): Companies like GameStop and AMC surged hundreds of percent amid a speculative frenzy and short squeezes. Here, too, there was a gray area. Many investors saw businesses facing serious fundamental challenges, which made shorting them appear rational, especially as their share prices climbed further away from what those investors believed they were worth.

But a compelling fundamental argument does not tell you how far a stock can move before that argument pays off. As prices rose, some shorts covered, while others saw an even more attractive entry point and stepped in. That fresh short exposure created the potential for another round of forced buying if prices continued higher.

The gray area was the gap between the fundamental thesis and the path the market could take. Of course these weren’t great stocks, and the fact that people came in on that helped the waves move higher and higher.

That’s the behavioral dynamic I find so interesting. Uncertainty can keep attracting participants to the other side of a move. As the move extends, their conviction runs into their capital constraints, and an opinion can turn into a forced transaction.

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

48h over, will back in oil&diesel rn. Too lazy to explain, u guys are 69x smarter than my 74 IQ anyway lol. But R/R is way too clean here. Iran is feeling untouchable rn, zero chance they fold to US terms. Fading this "Blue wave = peace" narrative hard. Time will tell if I got a discount or if I'm the clown. Good luck to all!

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@nomad_maker Mentally unwell that’s what & they’re behind a keyboard.

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@irentdumpsters Posting rage bait on the tragedy of a young girl so you can gain engagement…. It’s crass! Desperate on your part

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@tcoste110 Great running! Kudos! Given the swing, you must feel like a different person. I find nothing really beats how running makes you feel and cardio/vo2 adaptations come at any age. I'm hoping to get over to run LA next year if this damn peroneus sorts itself out 🤞

[Hyperliquid @HyperliquidX]

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and trade[XYZ] have announced their plan to use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US traders across crypto, equities, commodities, foreign exchange, and other real-world assets, subject to regulatory approvals. ICE operates NYSE and some of the largest exchanges and clearing houses globally.

In this structure:
+ Hyperliquid serves as the underlying technology infrastructure via HIP-3*
+ trade[XYZ] designs and implements the markets
+ ICE operates the regulated market and clearing structure

Existing trade[XYZ] HIP-3 markets will remain unchanged.

Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.

[Stan Druckenmiller @standuquesne]

I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.

[Crowded Market Report @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt]

A different type of weekly video this time. Please share because more people need to hear the message.

The Most Powerful Lesson I Ever Learned in Life & Trading!
https://t.co/sEbLuKIdlN

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@VolaTim Talk about getting stopped out and the trade running your way

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@trader1sz Orange ranger lmfao 😂😂😂😂

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@TradersTrader1 Your views are top notch mate, definitely doesnt go unnoticed. The bulk on here are more focused on engagement as opposed to doing the real work

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@Jimmyjude13 Lmfao 😂😂😂

[Kieran Duff @kieran__duff]

Advice for discretionary traders: set up a directory on your PC. And every day, just write things in there (like a journal).

Use a voice dictation tool like @WisprFlow, it's so much easier to do it because you can just open up a notepad, voice dictate your whole thoughts into, like "I didn't take this silver trade because of XYZ," or, "I didn't like this market because of the way it reacted around this level."

What you can do is then point all your agents to read those files/thoughts before they do any work.

So, when you're talking to an agent a year from now, it has a year's worth of information about you as a trader, because it's just your thoughts and day-to-day processes written down on paper.

If it has access to all of this information, it won't ever forget a single thing. And it just compounds and compounds.

Get a Claude Artifact built for your trading journal, link it to your thoughts folder and you watch your progress compound.

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

@kieran__duff @WisprFlow Great advise Kieran! Only Issue with voice dictation for me it gets muddled on the Yorkshire accent 😂 but I’ve been doing something similar granting access to my notion which stores my debriefs works very well as can access the day type & conditions as well.

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

5/ Research only - index data, before costs, small sample. Not advice.

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

1/ Research notes: Russell reconstitution and small-cap relative performance.
Since 1990, a beta-neutral Russell 2000 / S&P 500 spread held through the final week into reconstitution day has returned +0.66% per event on average, positive in 30 of 37 years (t-stat 2.9).

[Lewis Porter @Lewis_Porters]

4/ What changes: 2026 Russell reconstitutes semi annually (June + December).
Open question: does the effect split into 2 smaller events, or persist at similar size with twice the frequency? December 2026 is the first observation.