Nikhil A

Be complete, while infinite

[Rony @Ronycoder]

INSTEAD OF WATCHING A 2-HOUR MOVIE.

Watch this Anthropic Claude for Finance lecture.

It’s probably the best free hour in quant AI right now.

Bookmark it and watch it today, no matter what.

[Yumi🌸 @samuraipips358]

Thank you for always reading.
As a token of my appreciation, I've made two of my trading tools free again.

These were previously limited-time giveaways, and I've decided to make them free again.
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There's always more I want to say but can't fit into a post.
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[Nikhil A @LifeWithNikhil]

@KobeissiLetter @grok what’s the difference between Dates Brent and Normal Brent futures?

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Petrodollar (or lack of them) update:

Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel

1/

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth.

Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market.

If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history.

If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want.

If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime."

By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything.

Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran?

Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent.

"Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to.

Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico."

It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made.

I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation.

And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms.

And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months?

Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!"

Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire.

Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :)

#oott #iran

[The Alpha Mindset @the_alphamind]

Watch this 2-3 times to clean your algorithm‼️‼️

[Navalism @NavalismHQ]

Your goal in life is to find out the people who need you the most, to find out the business that needs you the most, to find the project and the art that needs you the most. There is something out there just for you.

@naval

[AsymTrading @AsymTrading]

Drawdown control and recovery is the real trading superpower—yet it’s the one that almost no one talks about. Social media is flooded with highlight reels: screenshots of big winners, huge percentage gains, and perfectly timed trades. But what you almost never see are the posts about the dark side of trading — the inevitable drawdowns, the losing streaks, the moments when confidence wavers and account equity bleeds lower day after day.

That silence is telling. It’s because most traders don’t actually manage or recover from drawdowns — they succumb to them. Instead of methodically reducing risk, scaling back size, and stabilizing emotionally, they spiral. One loss leads to revenge trading. A few small mistakes snowball into a “death by a thousand cuts.” Or worse, a single oversized position wipes out weeks or months of progress.

One of my most popular post to this day is one of where I talk about how I struggled and lost money for 15 years before finally becoming profitable consistently. The reason this resonated so strongly with people is because that’s the reality that most traders face. What was it that pushed me over the line and finally into success? Draw down control and recovery. This takes what most traders lack which is emotional control.

The truth is, every trader goes through drawdowns. The difference between professionals and amateurs isn’t who avoids them — it’s who survives them. The pros treat a drawdown like a fire drill. They slow down, cut position size, simplify setups, and go into capital preservation mode. Their number one priority becomes staying in the game. Because recovery requires capital — financial and psychological.

Controlling a drawdown isn’t glamorous. It means saying no to setups you’d normally take. It means accepting smaller wins. It means rebuilding your mental edge one disciplined trade at a time. But if you can manage that, if you can recover from a drawdown without compounding mistakes, you build something far more valuable than any single winning trade: resilience.

That’s the real edge. Winners are temporary. Survivors endure.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Market Wizard Linda Raschke’s 12 Technical Trading Rules:

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low.

2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day.

3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon.

4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend.

5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness.

6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation.

7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close.

8. High volume on the close implies continuity the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour.

9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day.

10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day.

11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings.

Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal

Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price

Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax

Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction!

12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.

[Nikhil A @LifeWithNikhil]

@elonmusk @elonmusk take bitcoin to 100k let’s go

[Nikhil A @LifeWithNikhil]

@VALRdotcom Site is on read only?

[Nikhil A @LifeWithNikhil]

@WrongsToWrite @TaylinSimmonds Send

[Nikhil A @LifeWithNikhil]

@dickiebush Review

[Ryan Holiday @RyanHoliday]

I’m not saying going for a walk will solve all your problems, I’m just saying there’s no problem that’s going to be made worse by going for a walk.

[Nikhil A @LifeWithNikhil]

@KeithMcCullough Wdo

[Kobi Simmons @JordanKobi]

A Bottle of water can be .50 cents at a supermarket. $2 at the gym. $3 at the movies and $6 on a plane. Same water. Only thing that changed its value was the place..So the next time you feel your worth is nothing, maybe you’re at the wrong place💯

[Chamath Palihapitiya's burner (parody) @ChamathWarriors]

@naval Although it's also about making money https://t.co/DnbwxzI8M2

[The Olympic Games @Olympics]

What. A. Moment.

An unbelievable swim and a new World Record from Tatjana Schoenmaker in the women's 200m breaststroke, handing #RSA their first gold medal of #Tokyo2020!

@fina1908 @TeamSA2020 #Swimming

[Nikhil A @LifeWithNikhil]

#earthquakejhb #earthquakesouthafrica just felt like my place shook this morning …

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

The gym solves most problems