Meredith Lilly

Full professor, International Trade; Canada-US relations; NAFTA; USMCA; sanctions; G7.

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

My latest for CD Howe on Canada's tricky path to the USMCA review, and negotiating the tariff relief needed from the US to journey forward. https://t.co/dbADBEEFpz

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

My comments in today's @globeandmail on the known dairy issue that will arise in the USMCA review. It's technical and specific, and entirely solvable. Kudos to @HelmoreKathryn for writing this informative piece.

[The Globe and Mail @globeandmail]

Ottawa weighs greater retail access for U.S. dairy industry https://t.co/dXeYfHCxks

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

Thanks to tariffs (esp re: Canada), US aluminium prices are now roughly 50% higher than in Europe & Japan, thus putting US manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage.

Heckuva industrial strategy.

[Canadian Global Affairs Institute @CAGlobalAffairs]

📝In this new contribution to the #CanadaUS #PolicySeries from the @CAGlobalAffairs , @CU_NPSIA and @policy_school, The Canada-U.S. Expert Group examines how U.S. trade and security relationship with China affect Canada.🇨🇦🇨🇳

https://t.co/fNhPvWjhSC

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

As I’ve been saying for months, the consequences of yrs of unchecked steel dumping with new (very high) US tariffs would be increased protectionism in Canada.

To keep Cdn steel afloat, Cdn govts are now faced with BuyCanadian rules or mega bailouts.

[David Ljunggren @reutersLjungg]

Stelco runs a full page ad in the Globe complaining the Liberal government has done effectively nothing to combat foreign dumping of steel #cdnpoli

[Alberto Cavallo @albertocavallo]

US tariffs update: Imported goods cost 5% more, domestic goods 3% more than pre-tariff trends predicted. Data now runs through Aug 8 — and we push the history back to Jan 1, 2024 (Appendix), showing a full year of stability before tariffs broke the trend. https://t.co/BFAmW0frQF

[Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham]

China's Commerce Ministry has extended its probe into EU dairy exports to February 2026.

It was supposed to conclude on Thursday. This is widely seen as one of the retaliatory actions against the EU's EV tariffs.

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

Industry raises valid point that origins of used oil may not be traceable, making country of origin & palm oil content uncertain. Limiting imports on these grounds would be a defensible policy position for Canada to adopt, and would be WTO compliant.

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

In wake of latest canola tariffs by China, worthwhile suggestion here to scrutinize imports of used cooking oil - in order to reorient clean fuel inputs to domestic canola. https://t.co/hDwntN5OF6

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

Goldman's latest (still very early) analysis of tariff effects thru June 2025:
-Foreign exporters absorbed 14% of US tariffs
-US companies ate 64%
-US consumers ate 22%
-Protected US companies also raised prices
-Consumers will see bigger price increases (70%) thru the Fall

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

With Trump, Canadians naturally fixate on the grenades lobbed directly at us. But his domestic moves to reshape global supply chains while enriching the US Treasury have much bigger implications for global trade and geopolitical stability. https://t.co/qmyiK8NbQW via @ft

[UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy @GPS_UCSD]

✍🏽 GPS professor @KyleLHandley, along with fellow economists, on why they are pushing back — w/ data — to convey there is no “emergency” trade deficit with many key U.S. allies: https://t.co/yKvAf6O0Oa @CatoInstitute. #TradePolicy #Economists

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

Join us tomorrow Aug 5th for our discussion the the US's trade wars. Follow the links below to register.

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Tune in tomorrow for a virtual event about the impact of increasing U.S. tariffs and what they could mean for the future global economic order 🌐

🎙️@EmilyKilcrease1
🎙️@wendyscutler
🎙️@thorstenbenner
🎙️@LillyResearch

[Alexander Panetta @Alex_Panetta]

One reason Ottawa has been more nervous about steel than aluminum tariffs: Because the aluminum tariffs are so evidently self-defeating for the United States they get dropped eventually anyway. Steel trickier.

[Thorsten Benner @thorstenbenner]

Very excited to join @EmilyKilcrease1 @geoffreygertz @wendyscutler @LillyResearch this coming Tuesday for a discussion on Trump's trade wars and the new CNAS report.

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

As AI automates junior-level tasks, it destroys the training grounds that create future experts. Who will train the next generation when entry-level work provides no value for firms to capture?
Today on Silicon Continent on the 'AI-Becker problem': https://t.co/73GxWNf1qQ

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

This would be a worthwhile activity for Canada to support if Italy would ratify CETA. It's been 8 years since CETA came into force, and Italy remains 1 of 10 EU economies that has not yet ratified the agreement.

[Canada Trade @CanadaTrade]

📢 #Canadian businesses: Join Minister Sidhu this October for the #CanadaTradeMission to #Italy. 🇨🇦 🇮🇹

Apply now to tap into opportunities in the dynamic Italian market!
https://t.co/QGJxn9EBkL
#CETA
#TradeDiversification

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

"Japanese officials said there was no written agreement with Washington — and no legally binding one would be drawn up", and surprise surprise, they deny giving Trump $550b to arbitrarily spend however he wants. https://t.co/1fR4qlpQoz

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

Further, we can expect these changes to be the minimum bar for USMCA changes. The US’s dairy case against Canada was virtually identical to NZ, and Canada will be forced to now revise its TRQ process for the US accordingly.

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

For close watchers of Canada’s violation of its dairy commitments to New Zealand under CPTPP, the case is now (finally) being resolved. Not surprisingly, these NZ links are more informative than Canada’s.

[Meredith Lilly @LillyResearch]

For close watchers of Canada’s violation of its dairy commitments to New Zealand under CPTPP, the case is now (finally) being resolved. Not surprisingly, these NZ links are more informative than Canada’s.

[New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade @MFATNZ]

Great news for kiwi dairy farmers and exporters – we’ve resolved our #CPTPP trade dispute with Canada 🇨🇦. A win for regional trade showing CPTPP dispute settlement works.

Find out more:
➡️https://t.co/hkvCQGY1XD
👉 https://t.co/3vr6QXgkBf.

[The Globe and Mail @globeandmail]

Canada and New Zealand reach resolution in dairy trade dispute, Ottawa says https://t.co/TapKXJTUli