I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on.
There are three main reasons.
1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow.
2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem.
3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters.
Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.
From a source I trust: @SVB_Financial depositors will get ~50% on Mon/Tues and the balance based on realized value over the next 3-6 months. If this proves true, I expect there will be bank runs beginning Monday am at a large number of non-SIB banks. No company will take even a tiny chance of losing a dollar of deposits as there is no reward for this risk. Absent a systemwide @FDICgov deposit guarantee, more bank runs begin Monday am.
Apparently this is a Bahamas account withdrawing other people's funds for them.
They are likely bypassing the internal balance transfers block by selling NFTs on FTX's NFT marketplace -- eg. Bahamas account creates an NFT, the stuck user buys the NFT with their full balance.
*** The original sin of QE (and QT)
QE policies, adopted by the most central banks in the last 15 years, suffered from a sin at birth. This came back to bite this Thursday in the UK.
Confusingly, there are three distinct policies that go under the name of QE.
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Russia is waging war in violation of international humanitarian law. Kills civilians, destroys civilian infrastructure. Russiaʼs main target is large cities that now fired at by its missiles.
📍Kharkiv, Administration building
My 6 key trading rules
1. Wait in cash for proper setups. How long? As long as it takes!
2. Always trade with a stop loss; keep all losses small
3. Never get bold when running cold
4. Nail down decent profits
5. Never let a good size gain turn into a loss
6. Never add to losers
OSX is really fun since M1 with @logseq, https://t.co/u4OhVD0K5m, and @raycastapp. Best productivity setup I’ve had in a decade. Bound common apps to the f1 keys like I had ages ago and wonder why I ever stopped.