The market feels the worst exactly where the best trades live.
Markets feel worst at discount and euphoric at premium.
That’s by design.
90% of traders fail because they follow sentiment.
Trading is hard because you must do the opposite of most people.
Larry bets against the grain and typically…he’s right $ORCL
1/ Larry Ellison has spent 45 years making bets the market called insane.
Here’s the scorecard — and the pattern nobody wants to admit. 🧵
2/ 1977 — Relational databases.
IBM invented the theory and shelved it as impractical. Ellison built the company on it.
✅ Right. Built Oracle from nothing.
3/ 2003 — Hostile takeover of PeopleSoft.
18 months of trench warfare. Analysts called it overpriced and legally doomed.
✅ Right. Launched the acquisition machine.
4/ 2009 — Buying Sun Microsystems.
A software company buying dying hardware for $7.4B. Wall Street was baffled.
⚠️ Mixed. Got Java. Hardware withered.
5/ 2011 — Calling cloud computing “gibberish.”
Then reversing entirely and spending a decade catching up.
❌ Wrong. His clearest miss.
6/ 2016 — Betting Oracle could still build a real cloud.
Everyone said that ship had sailed to AWS and Azure.
✅ Right. It’s the only reason Oracle is in the AI conversation today.
7/ 2025 — $300B of AI infrastructure, funded by debt.
Market response: worst week since the dot-com bust.
Sound familiar?
8/ The scorecard: roughly 3 out of 4 on the big contrarian swings.
But the more useful pattern isn’t the hit rate. It’s the sequence.
9/ He bets → the market punishes him → the numbers show up 2-3 years later → the stock violently re-rates → everyone who sold calls it obvious.
Doubt, then vindication, then the pile-in. Every single time.
10/ The buildout delivers into FY27-28.
The market is voting today on something that reports its verdict later.
That gap is the entire trade.
@leveraged_cat What about a plausible scenario where Larry took a huge bet on AI and comes out on top when the rest of the market realize they need more capex? Don’t fuck with Larry.
@DudeWhoInvests Yes, because Larry has bigger balls than the average investor can gargle. Mr. Ellison doesn’t always go against the grain, but when he does it pays off.
$ORCL Guggenheim
We hosted Oracle CFO Hilary Maxson and SVP, Investor Relations Ken Bond for meetings with investors. The conversation was mostly focused around questions on the AI infrastructure build-out, specifically data center delays, contract structures, and the recent credit downgrade. Ms. Maxson's message was consistent that the build-out is at a materially de-risked stage, reported delays are neither systemic across Oracle’s many data center sites nor financially meaningful, the cost-plus structure of Oracle's contracts insulates margin dollars from cost inflation, and there's a firm commitment to its investment-grade credit rating. We continue to rate Oracle a Buy with a $400 PT and view ORCL as a decade stock.