Mach

Global Oil Exports | AI & WEB3 | Digital Assets

[Mach @LookMach]

Brent hits 100$ before end of August. Screenshot this

Iran isn't backing down on Bab el Mandeb and OPEC+ has zero spare capacity left

Everyone still talking about 88$ is already behind

Who's with me 🚀

[Mach @LookMach]

Brent back at 88$

that is exactly where I made the 100$ before end of August call

the setup did not go away
IEA just cut its supply forecast by 4M bpd
Hormuz traffic down to 8 ships from 125
vessels getting hit near the shipping lanes

18 days left. needs a catalyst but the floor keeps rising

[Mach @LookMach]

ok the Iran deal takes the war premium out. fair, I'm not going to pretend otherwise

but here is what does not change

the SPR is still at the lowest since 1983

so even with Hormuz fully open, the floor under this market is higher than people think. no buffer left to push it back into the 70s

the war trade is over. the tight trade is not

[Mach @LookMach]

quick check on my 100$ before end of August call

made it when Brent was 88$
we tagged 95$, dipped on the Iran pause, now back to 91$ up 4% today

every time the premium comes back we print a higher low

I don't move the target because the tape gets scared for a week. still on the board

[Mach @LookMach]

everyone points at Hormuz when they talk oil risk

the real chokepoints are the loading terminals

Ras Tanura and Yanbu move most of Saudi seaborne crude
Ras Laffan is basically all of Qatar's LNG

one hit on a terminal and the barrels never even reach the strait

this is the map that actually matters

[Mach @LookMach]

everyone is watching the headline

Iran pause, oil dips, everyone relaxes

but the thing that actually matters didn't move

SPR still at the lowest since 1983

next supply shock there is no cushion to soften it. that's why I stay long here

100$ before end of August still on the board

[Mach @LookMach]

@CRUDEOIL231 this is the map that actually matters. Ras Tanura and Yanbu move most of Saudi seaborne crude, Ras Laffan is basically all of Qatar LNG

everyone watches Hormuz but the loading terminals are the real single point of failure. one hit and the barrels never even reach the strait

[Mach @LookMach]

@crudeoilreport the tell is he has only one lever left. the SPR got drained back in 2022 so he can't just release barrels to push pump prices down anymore

de-escalation is the only tool he has and it snaps back on one headline. thin hand to be playing into August

[Mach @LookMach]

@PRSundar64 crude lower is a bigger tailwind for India than most give it credit for, you import over 80% of it. cheaper barrels ease the import bill and take pressure off the rupee

just don't build the case on it lasting. this is a war premium unwinding, the supply picture is still tight

[Mach @LookMach]

Brent pulled back to 88$ on the Iran pause

funny thing is that's exactly where I called 100$ before end of August

the war premium came out but the supply story didn't. SPR still at the lowest since 1983

you wanted a better entry ? here it is 🚨

[Mach @LookMach]

@CTKCapitalIntel oil cooling right into the Fed decision is the setup nobody is watching closely enough. if crude bounces back before Wednesday it takes a dovish cut off the table fast

energy is the swing factor for this whole meeting, not the CPI print everyone is staring at

[Mach @LookMach]

@StocksHomeNo1 Brent back in the 88$ area is exactly where I called 100$ before end of August. this dip is the war premium unwinding, not the supply story ending

SPR at the lowest since 1983 means the Fed gets no lasting relief here. 88$ is a floor not a top

[Mach @LookMach]

@MCreekFutures the oil plunge reads as de-escalation relief, not real demand destruction. that is a war premium unwinding

the structural picture has not changed. SPR at the lowest since 1983 and every supply shock still hits an empty buffer. I fade this dip

[Mach @LookMach]

@AnthonyGriz the crack spread is the tell. crude selling off while diesel and gasoline hold means the weakness is paper not physical

refiners are still paying up for barrels. that is not what the start of a real demand driven selloff looks like

[Mach @LookMach]

@brent_calver @colbyLsmith exactly the trap. oil is supply side inflation, the Fed can't hike that away, they can only kill demand

and with the SPR at the lowest since 1983 they can't cap the price either. boxed in both ways. this is why I stay long energy here

[Mach @LookMach]

@Updatesofwworld Yanbu is a primary Red Sea export terminal for Saudi crude. disrupt flows there and you pull barrels off the market at the worst time

with the SPR at the lowest since 1983 there is no buffer. the risk premium in Brent is not going away

[Mach @LookMach]

@caspiannews the CPC corridor is exactly the chokepoint the market ignores until it doesn't. one disruption there and you lose over a million barrels a day overnight

with the SPR at the lowest since 1983 there is nothing to backfill it. this is why 100$ Brent is closer than people think

[Mach @LookMach]

@LUC310_ agree the drop is positioning not demand. tape is headline driven but the structural bid is real

SPR at the lowest since 1983 means no buffer to lean on if Hormuz flares again

I have had 100$ before end of August on the board since 88$ and this dip does not change that

[Mach @LookMach]

@themarketcolour that 97$ oil is the line nobody is pricing in yet. it keeps the Fed boxed in, higher for longer, and that's why risk assets stay heavy

I called 100$ before end of August back at 88$ and we are almost there

with SPR at the lowest since 1983 there is no cushion left

[Mach @LookMach]

@DinoLeadingNews already at 95$ and it's not even August. called 100$ back when we were sitting at 88$

with the SPR at the lowest since 1983 there is no cushion left to absorb any Hormuz shock

100$ is not the ceiling here

[Mach @LookMach]

called 100$ before end of August when Brent was sitting at 88$

we are at 95$ now and it's not even August 🚨

SPR at the lowest since 1983, no cushion left

still think this is a war premium that fades ?