ReflectionDaily

reassessment daily

[Mia @Miaavswpv]

ELON IS SETTING UP HIS SECOND-BIGGEST MOVE

Put the two monthly charts side by side and tell me they don't rhyme

$TSLA: merger news → base → years of chop → one nasty flush → vertical to ATH

$SPCX: merger narrative → same base → and rest of map is already drawn

Back then the $2.6B all-stock SolarCity merge got laughed at.

Bailout, desperate, everyone faded it

Smart money loaded the range while retail screamed top

Same setup now. Everyone's fixated on the unlock dump, nobody's pricing what's underneath

Tesla's $2B xAI stake converting into direct SpaceX shares means TSLA holders become SpaceX holders without buying a thing

That's step one of full merge and Wedbush puts 80-90% odds on it by 2027

The TSLA fractal says the fireworks come AFTER the boring part: base, grind, shakeout, then the vertical leg

Same path on $SPCX points to a +19,120% expansion

Not guaranteed. Fractals rhyme, they don't copy-paste

But ingredients match: merger catalyst, hated dump, market asleep at wheel

Buy the fear, not the headline

[JIMMIE @jimmieX07]

🚨 BREAKING: Selena Gomez, the Texas-born singer and actress, has reportedly slammed Gina Hinojosa over her recent remarks and proposal to drive Elon Musk and other investors out of Texas through higher taxes.

“I have great respect for Gina Hinojosa, but when it comes to the people of Texas, we must put selfish interests and political differences aside. Chasing Elon Musk out of Texas will do us more harm than good. I understand that you may be following the directives of the Democrats, but the interests of your people should always come first. Politics should never be mixed with business.

Elon Musk has provided countless job opportunities for the people of Texas, and that is something we cannot overlook or take away from him. Instead of fighting with him, find a better way to resolve your differences and work together rather than dancing to the tune of the Democrats. You are not elected to serve the Democrats; you are there to serve the people of Texas.

So many states are competing to attract investors, so why should Texas be chasing away the investors it already has? States like Florida would gladly welcome businesses and investments that Texas risks losing.

Hinojosa should be very careful about the advice she receives because I genuinely don’t believe this is the right decision. Attacking Elon Musk is not a fight the people of Texas want. Take politics out of business. Business is business, and politics is politics. If Elon Musk’s businesses are negatively affected, the people of Texas could suffer the consequences. I therefore advise her not to fight our investors but to make peace with them so that everyone can benefit and Texas can continue to flourish.

I encourage the people of Texas to come out and speak up. Hopefully, our voices will be heard and a better decision will be made by our governor. Let peace reign.”

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Larry Page has made many accurate predictions and this is one of them

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

BREAKING: Ron Baron backs Elon Musk to put data centers in space.

“We need more power and Elon’s doing that.”

• Baron says America needs to build more chips at home and generate more electricity. “We need more power. Elon’s doing that.”

• By Baron’s estimate, China has roughly 3× the power capacity of the U.S. and adds about 300 gigawatts a year, compared with 20 in the U.S.

• Baron says Musk is targeting launches in 2027 and 2028 to bring solar-powered data centers into orbit.

• He expects data centers in space to be “significant in 2028” and “huge” a year or two later.

[Pejjy @CuriousPejjy]

Billionaire Ron Baron drops a BOMBSHELL on $TSLA & $SPCX, here's what he said:

On the merger topic, he says there are positives and negatives of a merger but supports it if the BOD's believe is the best way forward. Ron believes his firm will make hundreds of billions of dollars whether merged or not between the two companies over the next 10 years.

Ron Baron stresses that the US needs more power. China builds 300 GW a year while the US builds only 30 GW pointing that China is far ahead in power than the US which is critical in this AI world. He says that Elon building out AI data centres (mainly in space) will help counter this fast. He believes AI data centres will be HUGE after 2028 and $SPCX will benefit greatly.

Ron Baron says to be patient with Tesla Robotaxis instead of wanting it now. He says the best thing is have a long term horizon and know they are going to the right direction which it is! Ron expects $TSLA stock to 5X in the next 10 years and the most remarkable investment he has ever made over the last 10 years.

[Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful @kevinolearytv]

With midterm elections behind us, here are 3 big predictions for 2027.

First, the trade war between Canada and the U.S. will end out of economic necessity. Second, the Clarity act will finally pass and third, the war in the Middle East will be over.

[Amy @Amy787]

Prepare for two years of political theater.

BUT grandstanding politicians cannot actually hurt Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX.

♦️The President is still the President. He controls the executive branch and has veto power (and pardon power).

♦️Texas is purple, and every Tesla and SpaceX project went through the normal local hearings and permitting processes. The permits were approved because the local residents and officials saw the economic advantage of the jobs.

♦️Markets will stabilize as they realize that this harms other companies more than Tesla and SpaceXSI - which always have a good relationship with local communities. The fundamentals have not changed. Tesla and SpaceXSI can operate independently of the grid if need be.

They will accelerate, not slow down.

[Tom Nash @iamtomnash]

Told you 3 years ago
$PLTR

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

NEW SpaceX Leak Shows MASSIVE Cash Flood Coming https://t.co/ba16TAuQnv

[Nathan Cross @NathanCrossNC]

CATHIE WOOD JUST DROPPED THE RICHEST BUY LIST OF THE YEAR
She’s not whispering… she’s screaming the names that can 10x while everyone else is asleep.

Here are the 5 stocks she just loaded the boat on:

1. $TSLA — Still her #1. ~10.8% ARKK / ~12.6% ARKQ. Robotaxi thesis on steroids

[akari @akarixbt]

This is f*cking insane. SpaceXAI lead engineer (Cursor employee #26):

"99% of people open one GrokBot and call it automation

I run 60+ bots like a real company. At 5 a.m. my Chief of Staff has my day mapped out, PMs hand out the work, QA checks every result, and 45+ workers ship it while I sleep"

In this 30-minute talk, he shows how to turn a single GrokBot into a coordinated team, bot by bot

GrokBot → Chief of Staff → PMs → QA → 45+ Workers

His bots found 35 apartments in Singapore, booked the viewings and negotiated the lease

At SpaceXAI, one engineer with a bot team now does the work of 10

Worth more than any $7,000 agentic engineering course

Bookmark it and watch today

Then read how to build your own team of GrokBot agents in the harness engineering guide below ↓

[Ming @tslaming]

BOOM 🚨 Elon Musk just replied to Shaun Maguire's SpaceX article with one sentence that blows up the scale of the whole conversation. To see why, let’s start with the units.

Maguire's model measures AI data centers in gigawatts. A gigawatt is roughly what a large nuclear plant puts out, and the biggest AI clusters being built today are about that size.

Elon is talking about petawatts. A petawatt is a million gigawatts.

To put that in perspective, all of humanity uses around 20 terawatts of energy, counting every source combined. A petawatt is about 50 times that. Earth just doesn't have the land, the grid, or the power plants to support it.

So where does it go? Deep space is the answer, where the Sun never sets and you can unfold as many solar panels as you want.

The tricky part is getting the hardware out there, and that's where the Moon comes in.

A mass driver is a long electromagnetic track, kind of like a giant maglev rail, that speeds up cargo until it's moving fast enough to fly off into space. It doesn't need a rocket or any fuel, just electricity, and the Moon can pull that straight from the Sun.

The Moon is ideal for this because it has no air to slow things down and only a sixth of Earth's gravity. Escaping Earth takes about 11.2 km per second, while escaping the Moon takes about 2.4. Since energy goes up with the square of speed, that works out to roughly 20 times less energy per kilogram, and that's before you count air drag or the fuel a rocket burns just to carry its own fuel.

The plan Elon has laid out before is to build AI satellites in factories on the Moon using lunar materials, then launch them into deep space one after another.

"Petawatt per year" means adding that much computing power every single year, the same way the solar industry tracks gigawatts installed each year.

That's where the last part of his reply comes from. Earth's entire economy runs on about 20 terawatts. If intelligence scales with energy, a system that adds way more than that every year could eventually create more value than everything happening on Earth put together.

For more than half a century, the Moon has been a place we visited and then left. In Elon's version of the future, it becomes the launch pad for the biggest machine humanity has ever built.

[Gregory Ramirez @mlkbfrey]

If you're under 45, I'm only going to say this TWICE.

Investments 10 years ago that are now worth $1 million:

1. $TSLA: $37,000

[Tommi Pedruzzi @TommiPedruzzi]

Delete Tiktok
Delete Youtube
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Like and reply 'SEND' and I'll send you the step-by-step guide absolutely FREE.

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[Mr. Jin @jinseongeo83473]

$SPCX
SpaceX의 2028년을 전망한 세쿼이아 투자자.
그리고 일론 머스크의 반응.

세쿼이아 캐피털의 Shaun Maguire가 SpaceX의 2028년까지의 재무 전망을 공개했습니다.

그는 앞으로 SpaceX에서 나타날 매출 증가 속도가 최근 3년간 엔비디아가 보여준 성장과 비교될 수 있다고 전망했습니다.

그런데 이 분석에 일론 머스크가 직접 답했습니다.

“I think we can do better.”

“우리는 그보다 더 잘할 수 있다고 생각합니다.”

상당히 자신감 있는 반응입니다.

다만 이번 이야기는 SpaceX의 공식 실적 전망이 아니라, 주요 투자자의 개인 재무모델과 이에 대한 머스크의 반응이라는 점부터 구분할 필요가 있습니다.

📌 1. Shaun Maguire는 누구인가?

그는 세쿼이아 캐피털의 파트너이자 물리학 박사로, 2020년부터 SpaceX 투자를 주도해 온 인물입니다.

이번 글의 제목은 다음과 같습니다.

“People Don't Understand SpaceX”

그는 최근 SpaceX의 실적 발표를 바탕으로 사업별 매출과 투자비용을 추정하는 상향식 재무모델을 작성했다고 밝혔습니다.

그리고 자신의 분석에 상당한 불확실성이 존재하며, 세쿼이아가 SpaceX의 주요 주주라는 점에서 편향될 수 있다는 사실도 먼저 인정했습니다.

📌 2. 그가 제시한 매출 전망

그의 재무모델을 요약하면 다음과 같습니다.

• 2026년 예상 매출: 약 515억 달러

• 2027년 예상 매출: 약 2,740억 달러

• 2028년 예상 매출: 약 7,310억 달러

2026년에서 2028년까지 약 14배의 매출 증가를 예상한 것입니다.

물론 이는 기업이 공식적으로 제시한 가이던스가 아닙니다.

이러한 성장이 가능하다고 보는 가장 큰 이유는 기존 발사사업이나 Starlink만이 아닙니다.

바로 AI 컴퓨팅 사업입니다.

그의 모델에서는 2028년 매출의 상당 부분을 AI 인프라 사업이 차지할 것으로 예상합니다.

📌 3. SpaceX의 경쟁력을 어떻게 평가하는가?

Maguire는 네 가지를 강조합니다.

① 조직의 실행 능력

SpaceX가 어려운 엔지니어링 문제를 빠르게 해결하고, 실제 시험과 실패를 통해 기술을 개선하는 능력을 높게 평가합니다.

② Starship의 진입장벽

그는 Starship을 경쟁사가 단기간에 따라 하기 어려운 거대한 기술적 해자로 평가합니다.

단순히 로켓을 제작하는 능력이 아니라, 엔진부터 생산시설과 발사·회수 시스템까지 통합된 기술과 공급망을 의미합니다.

③ AI 컴퓨팅의 원가 경쟁력

SpaceX가 대규모 AI 컴퓨팅 시장에서도 최저원가 공급자가 될 가능성이 있다고 주장합니다.

④ Starlink와 Direct to Cell의 경제성

Starship이 본격적으로 활용되면 위성 배치에 필요한 발사 횟수와 운송비용을 크게 줄일 수 있다고 전망합니다.

특히 그는 2029~2030년에는 Direct to Cell의 매출이 기존 Starlink 사업을 넘어설 수도 있다고 예상합니다.

다만 이 네 가지는 검증된 사실과 향후 실현해야 할 전망이 혼재된 주장입니다.

📌 4. 일론 머스크의 반응

이 글이 더 주목받은 이유는 머스크의 직접적인 답변 때문입니다.

Maguire의 재무 전망을 접한 머스크는 짧게 답했습니다.

“I think we can do better.”

그러자 Maguire는 다시 이렇게 답했습니다.

자신도 그렇게 생각하며, 공개한 전망은 대략 25~50백분위 수준의 추정치라는 것입니다.

또한 더 낙관적인 50~75백분위 전망은 시장이 받아들이기 어려울 것이라는 취지로 덧붙였습니다.

두 사람 모두 상당히 낙관적인 시각을 보여준 셈입니다.

그러나 머스크가 2028년 매출 7,310억 달러를 공식적으로 보증하거나 새로운 실적 가이던스를 발표한 것은 아닙니다.

이 부분은 반드시 구분해야 합니다.

📌 5. 그렇다면 무엇을 확인해야 하는가?

저는 이번 재무모델에서 숫자의 크기보다 그 숫자가 성립하기 위한 전제조건에 주목할 필요가 있다고 생각합니다.

Maguire의 전망에는 대규모 AI 컴퓨팅 설비 확대가 포함돼 있습니다.

2028년 말 지상 컴퓨팅 설비용량이 21GW까지 증가하고, 연간 설비투자도 약 3,690억 달러에 달한다는 가정입니다.

참고로 SpaceX의 공식 공시에서 확인되는 2026년 9월 말 기준 명목 컴퓨팅 설비용량은 1.7GW입니다.

이 전망이 현실화되려면 전력 확보, GPU 공급, 데이터센터 건설, 고객 수요와 막대한 자금조달이 모두 뒷받침되어야 합니다.

또한 Starship의 완전 재사용과 발사 빈도 확대, Starlink와 D2D의 수익성 개선도 중요합니다.

매출이 빠르게 증가하는 것과 그 매출이 충분한 잉여현금흐름으로 연결되는 것은 다른 문제입니다.

📌 6. 마지막으로 생각해볼 점

이번 글은 SpaceX의 장기 성장 가능성을 매우 높게 평가하는 투자자의 관점을 보여줍니다.

특히 SpaceX를 로켓과 위성통신 기업이 아닌, AI 인프라까지 수직적으로 통합하는 기업으로 바라보고 있다는 점이 흥미롭습니다.

최근 SpaceX의 발사사업 전략 변화와 머스크의 우주 AI 컴퓨팅 전망을 함께 살펴보면 이러한 해석이 등장하는 배경도 이해할 수 있습니다.

그러나 사업의 성장 가능성이 크다는 사실과 현재 기업가치에서 기대할 수 있는 투자수익률은 별개의 문제입니다.

세쿼이아의 투자 전망도, 머스크의 자신감도 결국 실제 사업성과와 숫자로 검증되어야 합니다.

앞으로 SpaceX가 어떤 성장 경로를 보여줄지 지켜볼 필요가 있겠습니다.

이번 글은 세쿼이아 투자자의 관점과 머스크의 반응을 소개하기 위한 것으로, 제시된 재무 전망에 동의하거나 특정 기업과의 투자매력을 비교하려는 취지는 아닙니다.

🔗 참고자료 / PRIMARY SOURCES

Shaun Maguire — People Don't Understand SpaceX
https://t.co/mx3hmcmm6p

Shaun Maguire — SpaceX 재무모델 소개
https://t.co/PmGyLZMX5u

Elon Musk — 재무모델에 대한 직접 답변
https://t.co/sL0ngbUc9K
Shaun Maguire — 머스크에게 보낸 후속 답변
https://t.co/slmclPk8MT

SpaceX — 2026 Q3 Form 10-Q
https://t.co/GEJOhrF9Tm
※ 본 글은 공개자료를 바탕으로 확인된 사실과 분석·전망을 구분해 작성했습니다. 특정 종목의 매수·매도 권유가 아닙니다.

[Pejjy @CuriousPejjy]

Elon Musk literally told us how insane growth $SPCX is not only next year but by NEXT QUARTER(S).

If you missed this, here are the VERY important parts of the SpaceX's Q3 earnings call.

Pay very close attention and try to keep your brain from melting.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

True

[Milk Road Stocks @MilkRoadStocks]

Our analyst Vincent expects $SPCX to raise money by selling new shares, and says the stock drops "five to 10% for sure" when it's announced.

He's fine with it as a shareholder.

"Go for 20 gigawatts, raise all the money in the world," because he thinks that compute is worth more than the dilution.

LG then asked if Elon would let Tesla $TSLA slide to make a merger easier.

Vincent said no. A more valuable Tesla gets cheaper outside financing, a merged company has better creditworthiness for SpaceX's capex, and dilution is easier with a bigger stock.

As for the merger, he says "for me, it's not an if but a when," and his own move is "rotating a bit" while keeping exposure to what he calls Elon Inc.

SpaceX is funding one of the biggest AI compute buildouts out there, so how it raises that money matters to Tesla holders too.

FT @WhiteCollarExit @LgDoucet.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Tesla’s Board of Directors has sent a new letter to shareholders:

“Dear Tesla Shareholders,

We have always set ambitious goals at Tesla. Achieving them requires the right team and the right leadership at both the management and Board levels. At our Annual Meeting on December 3, 2026, our three Class I Directors - Elon Musk, Robyn Denholm and JB Straubel - are up for re election.

We have all the building blocks necessary to propel us into our next phase of transformational growth, but we must keep the leadership that has proven key to Tesla's success. We are asking you to vote FOR ALL proposals on this year's ballot - most importantly, the re-election of our three Class I Directors.

Thank you for your continued support of Tesla.

Sincerely,
The Tesla Board of Directors”

More info:

[Gali @Gfilche]

Keynote ⚡ Why I'm long $TSLA & $SPCX

Last week, I was invited to Los Angeles for the LD Micro conference to give a keynote about my two biggest investment positions Tesla and SpaceX.

Many of you follow me for my tech stock/VC investing ... but before all of that, I had a previous life as a micro-cap investor. Yup, I loved finding the tiniest companies at the earliest stages. We're talking back in high school. 2008-2011.

But in 2012, my mentor told me about his test-ride in a Tesla Roadster. This is what let me to @Tesla & realized that despite trading for $3B... the upside potential was MASSIVE.

They were trying to change everything about our transportation and energy systems. No more fossil fuels, via super fast sports cars. I got hooked, and the more research I did, the more I invested in $TSLA. I went all in. This wasn't a car company. It was a technology company.

No innovation like this was happening in public microcap stocks. Frankly, most of them were scam businesses built to dilute shareholders, not build world changing technologies.

So naturally, I became more and more enthralled by tech companies changing the world, and eventually even startups (and now my VC has invested $40M into them!). In short, I left the microcap world and never looked back.

At one point, Chris Lahiji, a great friend and mentor, said Gali, come back to LD Micro, pitch us on Tesla & why you left microcap. So I did. That was 8 years ago, and the stock is up ~20X.

This year, Chris invited me back to reflect on Tesla's progress and offer my newest investment pick; SpaceX.

So that resulted in this talk lol. A high level overview of my investing philosophy and why my two biggest positions are Tesla & SpaceX STILL. Despite being up 20X+ on both, I think they can each 10X from here. Presented at a conference for microcap stocks lol ... two $1T+ picks 😂😂

I had a blast doing this and was honored to be invited back 🙏