Lou F

PROUD GARBAGE American smacked in the Ass🇺🇸 Anti-Woke, Anti-Globalist, Realist, Proud 🇺🇸 2nd Amendment absolutist: No infringements FULL STOP‼️Love Cats🐈‍⬛

[Ryan James Girdusky @RyanGirdusky]

The Supreme Court is putting their finger on the scale of Lula

[Lou F @LouF101]

@earlyvotedata The process of election rigging has started. If the communists don’t win they’ll ask the gangster STF judges to void the #2 round so they can have a 3rd election round. Crooks!

[Lou F @LouF101]

@earlyvotedata Actually the corrupt gangster judges at the STF just ordered the polls open for an additional 2 hours. They’re trying to find enough votes in the NE to re-elect the narco communist 🤮

[Lou F @LouF101]

@earlyvotedata @HashemMelech048 Flavio 52 🇧🇷
X
Narco Communist Thug 🔨 47

[Seth Keshel @RealSKeshel]

Everyone needs to calm down.

Dems CAN win Texas. At least the one race they’re really gunning for. However, it’s conditional on red areas not voting and major swings in the few areas Dems get votes from, and a reversion of the Latino vote bigger than anyone would expect to see ten years into the shift.

But if Rs vote in big numbers they won’t lose.

[Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD @TonerousHyus]

Lmfao a lot of people will be disappointed on this website Nov 3 and it’s important to mock them

[Commentary Trump Daily Posts @TrumpDailyPosts]

Ken Paxton will win handily in Texas. Bookmark this.

[Exit the Left @_ExitTheLeft]

Republicans flooded Texas with Paxton votes today.

Good.

[Seth Keshel @RealSKeshel]

These figures need more insight.

Harris only won 10 counties by more than 5 points. Of those 10, 4 had fewer than 4,000 votes cast in the 2024 presidential. One can assume any big batch from Travis County is bad for the GOP. But with Dallas high prop Dems voted out, remaining votes in Dallas aren’t too bad. Bexar County was won by less than 10 and has a lot of Republicans voting now, and Harris County was won by less than 6, and likewise has tons of Republicans in it now voting.

Only 6 counties fall into the “swing counties” description. Or should fall into it.

In the Trump by more than 5 category, here’s how that breaks down:

4 counties with Trump +5.0-9.9% margin
13 counties with Trump +10.0-19.9% margin
10 counties with Trump +20.0-29.9% margin
10 counties with Trump +30.0%-39.9% margin
18 counties with Trump +40.0%-49.9% margin
183 counties with Trump +50.0% or greater margin

Yesterday was brutal for Democrats.

[Lou F @LouF101]

@DavidD_Chapman @Peoples_Pundit This guy is such an useless idiot! Can’t believe people pay attention to his bs analysis 🤡🤡🤡🤡

[Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD @TonerousHyus]

@RealSKeshel Completely fabricated rage bait for engagement

[True Texas Project @TrueTXProject]

Anyone surprised?

[Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD @TonerousHyus]

Those rural dumps when TX SOS updates are rough. Dallas turnout today is also one of the lowest counties statewide

[America First Insight @AF_Insight]

Texas Trump Counties are firing on all cylinders today.

Now of course this doesn't mean todays vote was R+13ish.

But the GOP definitely want Trump areas voting more and more.

Yesterday only 47% of the vote came from Trump counties, and 13% was from swing counties.

[Desi H-1Bhenchods @desitechsuppoat]

🚨 BAD NEWS IN BEXAR COUNTY! Voting wait times in San Antonio this Saturday reveal a turnabout in the election

The circled areas had all the Democrat front-loading on Day 1, filled with apartment complexes of Talarico supports. But look at the arrows!

These areas on the South Side of San Antonio, the Randolf Air Force base and SOMERSET, TX are now showing wait times of an hour. This is not good news for Talarico! These areas of Bexar turned out BIG for Donald Trump in 2024 and are the highest concentrations of conservative Hispanic voters in the county.

@TonerousHyus

[Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD @TonerousHyus]

Talarico losing is gonna send lefty ET spiraling Jesus. These dysgenic folks just cannot believe it, can’t imagine it and can’t accept it

Everything’s on a cope spectrum now

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

Yep. When the liberal target smart (who are very left leaning modelers) are saying Republicans lead in Texas by 3pts...Ken Paxton is going to win.

[Lou F @LouF101]

@shipwreckedcrew I live here! The Blexas dream lives on with libs because they simply don’t understand or care about flyover rural TX 🥰

[Katie Pavlich @KatiePavlich]

I think Talarico is going to get crushed

[Duane Patterson @Radioblogger]

Collin County, Texas might wind up being James Talarico's Waterloo.

It's a 'burb county at the north end of the DFW metroplex. Plano and McKinney are the big cities there. It's a red county that's been lightening in hue as Democrats move there from other states.

In 2016, Trump won the state by 9, but he won Collin County was 16.4%, R+7.4.

In 2018, Cruz won the state by 2.6%, Collin County by 6.1%, R+3.5.

In 2020, Trump won the state by 5.6%, Collin County by 4.3%, D+1.2.

In 2022, Abbott won the state by 10.9%, Collin County by 10%, D+0.9.

In 2024, Trump won the state by 13.7%, Collin County by 11.1%, D+2.6.

Now here's why Collin is the bellwether. Roughly 5% of Collin County votes early by mail. That's not their preference in how they vote. They have a propensity for in person early voting much more than Election Day.

@Geiger_Capital has been all over this.

Outside of the COVID year of 2020, at least 85% of their population voted early in person, and that early vote was within a point of the final Election day tally. Unlike other counties, in Collin, going back a decade, you really can glean what'll happen on Election Day from early voting data.

Now take current polling. If Talarico is up two statewide, and Collin County matches their shift to the left of where the state goes, Talarico has to win here. At absolute minimum, he has to tie Paxton.

If Paxton is up a couple in polling, Talarico still has to win the county if you account for the Democrat lean. If Paxton wins Collin County outright, even by a small margin, he'll win the state.

Enter @theoelections. In 3 days of early in-person voting, although Texas doesn't release data by party ID, they do release voter rosters, and from that, you can extrapolate.

If someone on the roster that has early voted in Collin also voted in 1, 2, 3, or 4 Republican primaries since 2020, that accounts for 36.4% of what's coming so far.

Voters that also voted in 1, 2, 3, or 4 Democratic primaries since 2020 account for 31%, or a R+5.4% edge after three days. Those that have not voted in any partisan primary since 2020 (a mix of Indies and/or new residents), are 28.2%.

Could a big chunk of those Republican voters cross over for Talarico over Paxton? Sure, it's possible. But it doesn't seem very likely if they have the propensity to have voted in repeated primary cycles. Will every indie/newbie vote for Talarico? Sure, it could happen, but statistical probabilities would tell you the most likely outcome is that 28% will split.

The bottom line is if proven Republican voters are ahead of proven Democrats, and that continues through next week going into Election Day, Talarico will not win Collin County. And if he's not getting the turnout he needs in an increasingly friendly county, he's not going to get that turnout in bluer areas as well and Paxton will become senator.

The blue wave is simply not there.