Luke

Liquid Investments @ Maven 11 & M11 Funds

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@cookerbruski ball knowledge needs work

[Yogita Khatri @Yogita_Khatri5]

🎉 Edition 53 of my newsletter, The Funding, is live!

Many thanks to @David_Grid, @richwgalvin, @cosmo_jiang, @jackbplatts, @VidiellaLaura, Andy Martinez of @CIG_Crypto, Loren Asmus of @UTXOmgmt, @sanatvc, @LukeLokhorst, and @jdorman81 for sharing insights 🙌

[Citrini @citrini]

The knicks saved the stock market

[Alex Corrino @AlexCorrino]

"Memory is cyclical, everyone knows that, and the recent run up in memory names is an obvious bubble."

That's the easy, reflexive view. But I think the people who hold it are missing the simple scale of what AI is doing to memory demand.

The first clue that there might be more to the memory story came in January of this year when it came out that NVDA's next gen Rubin platform would require 16 TB of NAND per GPU, or 1152 TB per rack, and that required HBM bandwidth for the system would be 70% higher than what had been previously reported.

That was the first time it became obvious to outside observers that memory would need to scale exponentially to keep up with already-known GPU demand.

One under-appreciated fact is that while GPU compute has largely scaled with Moore's Law (doubling in compute ~every 2 years), memory density and speed hasn't. As GPU compute continues to scale, existing memory manufacturers must produce exponentially more chips.

These chips will also need to be faster than ever, which introduces an incredible technical challenge: how can memory manufacturers find the required speed improvements that have eluded them for decades?

When you combine this added technical complexity with an exponentially expanding demand for the product, memory starts to look less like the "commodity" everyone knows it to be, and much more like a high-margin proprietary chip.

This hasn't even touched on memory's role in inference (compute needed for inference is expanding exponentially as well, and is highly memory-dependent), long context, etc.

Agentic AI requires agents to pull massive amounts of data into their context, which increases the number of tokens per "turn" and also the amount of memory required to run them. True agentic systems will require both dramatically higher context, and also many more "turns" or iterations of each task (as they improve an output over and over until it reaches a target quality level). Longer context = more memory per workload, and more "turns" = more workload per output.

To put a specific number on that, Micron SVP Jeremy Werner said recently on The Circuit that agentic AI is causing context length to grow 30x a year.

Michael Dell recently framed the problem in extremely simple terms: H100 had 80GB of HBM; by 2028, accelerators could carry ~2TB. That is 25x more memory per accelerator. Over the same period, he expects roughly 25x more accelerators deployed.

That's 25 x 25 = 625x more accelerator memory demand by 2028.

Everyone knows memory stocks are cyclical, and they always look cheap right before the bubble bursts. But what if there are structural changes happening in the memory markets that could prove the consensus wrong?

Does anyone remember another traditionally cyclical company that has rerated to a growth story due to the demand from AI? Hint: It's now the most valuable company in the world.

Reminder: this is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. It's a framework for thinking about how the AI buildout may be changing the memory market.

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@CavanXy Quick q here why not use CVD to see the direction of the build up in OI? Or you just see it based on were price is trending

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@chiefingza @WClemente https://t.co/WPtWc0nOs2

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@0xY10_ He’s optimizing for the BTC/MSTR price not just BTC, why his buys always seem like top blast

[Cav @CavanXy]

sellers have made goggins look like a bitch

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@Wild_Randomness Another banger

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@Wild_Randomness 😂😂😂

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@0xpostscryptum nice one

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@D3SK_ @RunnerXBT agree, if you go on a ltf you can see the ticks up in OI met with a downside move on perps CVD, all longers are broke and shorts getting greedy

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@RunnerXBT hit my line

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

I’d follow Scott Bessent into war… 🫡

“Why the fuck are you talking to the president about me? Fuck you. I’ll punch you in your fucking face.”

That’s my Treasury Secretary.

[Conks @conksresearch]

Sydney Sweeney to become the new face of forex repo

[M11 Credit @M11Credit]

Excited to announce new composability for our curated Prime Brokerage @FalconXGlobal Credit Vault, built on @paretocredit

Active lenders can now leverage their position and borrow USDC liquidity against their AA_FalconXUSDC Token on the @MorphoLabs money market infrastructure

We’re proud to collaborate with @gauntlet_xyz, leveraging their expertise in curating Morpho markets to further drive the growth of institutional on-chain private credit

[Maven 11 @Maven11Capital]

Today we are introducing the Maven 11 Residency, a specialized program for exceptional founders with bold ideas.

We're offering a tailored experience to guide founders toward long-term success.

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@CL207 Any sauce?

[Luke @LukeLokhorst]

@atalantis7 What do you use for charting? Really clean

[Maven 11 @Maven11Capital]

Incredibly proud to announce the closing of our third venture fund, building on our track record of investing in great founders.

More than ever, we will back brave outliers who are pushing this industry forward.