MIH

[Magus @TraderMagus]

Perfect example from today

1. Slow controlled selling
2. Selling climax

Learn to only fade inefficient moves

Run up the likes & I'll break this down

[ltrd @ltrd_]

https://t.co/4EbQoUhGIP

[MIH @MIH_Qx]

I'm just retweeting every hopium I see on my tl.

[Evanss6 @Evan_ss6]

As someone who thought the inevitability of this sort of wipe had been building for months, it was still shocking to see the severity and speed of it.

I had figured it would be an easy buy for “high quality” bags, and technically it was if you caught the severe dislocations at the bottom of alts. Talking ENA at $0.12, ATOM at $0.001, many other big alts up 2-4x quickly from bottom wicks.

But what really happened was, a lot of “stink bidders” filled and then got liquidated at the bottom. People with shorts got ADL’d all over the place, often times way before the bottom. All sorts of things stopped working (data feeds, some exchanges, market makers).

Once the bottom happened, the books were empty. I saw ENA at $0.14 on one venue and $0.35 on another. I started to bid with a combo of limits and semi-passive algos. The former got 0 fills and the latter filled around $0.33. average over 5 minutes despite price starting at $0.14. This happened on pretty much all alts, this is just one example. Truth is it was very hard to get fills near lows for size unless 1) you already had bids there + didn’t get liquidated from filling too much too early or 2) you got ADL’d on shorts

Fortunately, I wasn’t in a position to be liquidated anywhere, so avoided the worst. I was able to cover all of my short legs for the spreads I was running (some got ADL’d, rest just closed).

From here, could see all 3 outcomes playing out, in large part depending on Trump, macro, and exchange (in)solvency.
1. So many people got 0’d and run it back up turbo, max pain
2. We have to chop for a while to digest this— return to BTC.D
3. This is the start of the turn (stocks only down 3-4%), and enter a bear market. Also good for BTC.D

As a trader, I can’t not buy a crash like that. Those are the highest EV spots. Undecided on hold time. Often times we will bleed down and retest the wicks and set higher lows after the initial mechanical bounce is over. But that was far from a “normal crash”, that was the prototypical sh*t hitting the fan.

In any case, it’s a good time to clean up positions and return to things you genuinely want to own and hold, without leverage. I continue to hold mostly BTC with some smaller positions in a small number of alts I think can do well in the quarter(s) ahead.

I hope everyone is okay. If you lost, it’s only money that you can make again, and a valuable lesson on leverage/risk management that you will never forget. There is always another trade.

Dont Know.

[Delta @deltaxbt]

back in may 2021 i had my biggest loss % wise to this day, it was fast, brutal and left me in a physical state of shock, just broken, i remember not being able to sleep eat or function really for a while
i assume many in the last 24 hours are experiencing the same feeling

[冨樫義博 @Un4v5s8bgsVk9Xp]

35年くらい昔の　原稿用紙の余りを
使っております。

[Solid Intel 📡 @solidintel_x]

INTEL: Oct 10 crash is the biggest liquidation event in the history of crypto reaching $19.3B

Followed by:
COVID crash: $1.2B liquidated
FTX crash: $1.6B liquidated

[MIH @MIH_Qx]

Good morning

[Cobie @cobie]

Probably one of the most severe flushes I’ve ever seen on alts, I didn’t even imagine alts had this much leverage in them. It feels like someone got hit very hard and will see a large body float to the surface soon, reminds me a little of summer 2021.

Good reminder to myself to own things that I am actually bullish on, and not things I am trying to shift on momentum. Some charts look like they’ll never recover, whereas some things look buyable for the first time in a while.

When everyone is making hilarious amounts of money I am always tempted to start using leverage again. It is almost impossible to fight the feeling that you’re not making enough, or everyone else is outpacing you. Good reminder that fighting that feeling and avoid the wipeouts is worth it in the end.

Check on your friends, likely a bad day for many.

Personally, am concentrating my bags into the things I am happy to own for the next few years, and shedding the fat. Realised I own some assets based on not wanting to miss out, rather than on some actual thesis. Days like today are much easier for me if I think my bags will bounce back, and much worse if I’m losing money owning things I don’t even believe in.

Don’t let a leverage blowup dictate your long-term views. The future is bright, good things to come, patience is rewarded.

嵐の後

[MIH @MIH_Qx]

Good night

[MIH @MIH_Qx]

So what now?

[MIH @MIH_Qx]

OK, I'm going to start tweeting because I don't know what else to do right now.

[MLM @mlmabc]

In case you didn’t know - the BTC whale closed 90% of his BTC short and fully closed his ETH short, making around $190–$200M profit in just one day on Hyperliquid.

The crazy part is that he shorted another 9 figs worth of BTC and ETH minutes before the cascade happened. And this was just publicly on Hyperliquid imagine what he did on CEXs or elsewhere. I’m pretty sure this guy played a huge role in what happened today.

https://t.co/KPzg4u1tN8

https://t.co/K9MFyjcAL4

[MIH @MIH_Qx]

Hmmmmm

[MIH @MIH_Qx]

@nik_algo Happy birthday

[Doc @docXBT]

Breakeven trader?
Stuck in elo hell?

You don’t need new indicators.
You don't need a new system.

You need to make fewer unforced errors.

Error reduction is the fastest route to profitability.

--

Let's begin with a little honest self reflection.

Write down everything that you're bad at as a trader.
Every error. All of them.

Because that’s the only way you can figure out what you’re not completely shit at.

And I promise you, even if you're on full tilt, you still have a thing or two that you can do well.

I use a lot of tennis metaphors when I teach on stream, so here's another one:

Amateurs play a Loser’s Game → most matches are won simply by missing less than your opponent. Legit nothing fancy. You win by simply screwing up less.

Just put the damn ball in the court.

Pros play a Winner’s Game → most matches are won by out playing your opponent. You have to out think them, problem solve on the fly and aggressively close points.

Markets are the same.

Once you're a proven winner -> press size, use LTF or flow to snipe entries, execute when someone makes a mistake, apply game theory and out think your competition.

But if you're struggling, just put the ball in the damn court.

Chances are if you're still reading, you're not consistently profitable.

You may run up briefly, but you can't keep it.

You're not a pro.
You're an amateur.

So play like an amateur.

Have one setup that intuitively comes to mind as your favorite? It's probably your favorite bc it makes you more money than the rest of the shit you take.

Gather some stats.
I bet you that you're over 50% win rate with it.

If so...

Take that one stupid setup again and again... and again.

Display the discipline to avoid the rest.
You shouldn't care about getting better at them yet; they're -EV for you.

By adding more setups all you're doing is lowering your win expectancy once you understand what your strength is.

Think of it like a video game: You don’t split points equally across every skill tree. You focus on one and build around it.

Is there one coin you trade better?

> Stick to it. Remove the rest from the watchlist.

Better at trading ranges?

> Stop trading trends.

Trade better on H1?

> Stop yourself from trading other timeframes.

The more variance your remove from the equation, the better.

TL;DR;

Your desire to learn it all and participate in everything has prevented you from consistently doing the one thing you can probably already do well.

If you're an amateur.

Leave the ego at the door and play like an amateur.

Put the ball in the damn court.

[MIH @MIH_Qx]

@TraderMagus Gm magus

[Cobie @cobie]

@AzFlin "To lose patience is to lose the battle."