Mattias Lagerspetz

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle...

$AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028.

400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line.

On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2).

TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online...

For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line.

Rather than one-and-done off of one year.

This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.

[Mattias Lagerspetz @MLagerspetz]

@VilleEcon Maybe it could be used to study the formation of financial bubbles? So modelling Bitcoin returns? 😉 (In reality, I think Bitcoin behaves very much like a "traditional momentum model" would expect it to)

[Mattias Lagerspetz @MLagerspetz]

@VilleEcon The Polya model would predict a stock with previously high returns to have even higher returns in the future in a time-series sense. This kind of a process would lead to an ever-accelerating momentum. Empirically mean-reversion/value effect tends to take over at some point.

[Mattias Lagerspetz @MLagerspetz]

@VilleEcon Jegadeesh and Titman formulate the statistical implications of momentum to be that stocks that have had higher than average (cross-sectional) returns in the past, are likely to have higher than average (cross-sectional) returns also in the future.