Tech

I got a rep that makes books jet

So ahead of my time my parents havent met yet

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@EPBResearch Are we in a bubble? If so, should it affect MP?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@DannyDayan5 @EPBResearch https://t.co/TSZJxvVs55

In other words would be nice to hear an honest reflection from Eric on this thread

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

Misinterpreting this extra lag for policy not being tight enough is a mistake.

"Fool In The Shower"

Ht/ @sidprabhu @hump_bear

18/

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@EPBResearch @ericwallerstein What insights do LEIs have for monetary policy? Over a year ago EPB said the insight was that they should cut rates. Where would we be today if we followed that advice?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@EPBResearch Last year you were very confident the fed should have been cutting rates. How has ur view changed over time? Right then, right now? Wrong then, right now?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@ah_shapiro @sffed Yea. My impression is that this analysis doesnt have much implication for cons going forward once it hits zero. However, that hasnt stopped the IMF WEO from implying that the depletion of excess savings was going to moderate future cons.

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@robin_j_brooks What about ez inflation was unanchored going into covid making the output inflation tradeoff larger

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@EPBResearch What's the insight of this analysis for the Fed?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@EPBResearch What should the fed do with this insight?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@MMTmacrotrader Can you show the primary deficit vs interest payments over this time?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@tyillc @D_Blanchflower Well that wouldn't be very wise if they did say financial crisis but plenty of people in other institutions like the IMFs Rajan

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@MBjegovic @KennyPolcari Reaction to this?

https://t.co/ywSZp52ukT

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@MBjegovic when would you have put the FFR at neutral?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@MBjegovic Yes you think the ffr should have been a lot lower for a pretty long time now so far. What does that counterfactual scenario look like for the ffr, cpi, gdp?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@rev_cap AIT was created to support post gfc economic weakness not just for the price level to catch up as an attempt to reduce the real interest rate further when at the zero lower bound and improve the recovery that way. Had they done it in 2008 not 2012, qe may have been unnecessary

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@briangobosox How do you define soon?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@EPBResearch Did the labor market crack?

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@ForwardGuidance @JackFarley96 @crudegusher "Voluntary" is a big assumption. Aramco has told everyone how fast their oilfields are depleting

[Tech @MMA_Techie]

@JeffSnider_EDU https://t.co/ixbb1Vv23v

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

🚨 It's Official: The Recession Just Started 🚨

🧵THREAD🧵👇

1/ 📉 Start Point: The data is in, and the verdict's clear: the recession has begun. While the timing debate may linger, the markets are signaling 'go time'. Here's the breakdown.

2/ 📊 Jobs Report: October's jobs data tipped the scales - under 100,000 private payrolls and a creeping unemployment rate. The labor market's stumble may well mark the recession's official start.

3/ 🌐 Global Sync: It's not isolated. From Europe's rising unemployment to global bond yield reactions, it's a worldwide economic retreat. Recession isn't knocking; it’s entered.

4/ 📈 Bonds Know: The bond market's steepening curve whispers the truth. Long-term rates are falling, a classic recession tell. Short-term yields will likely follow as the downturn deepens.

5/ 🏢 Corporate Moves: Firms are shifting from cautious optimism to defensive strategies. The disinflation hope has dimmed, and layoffs, unfortunately, are now on the table.

6/ 📑 Stat Signals: Continued claims and payroll revisions are telling a consistent story: the labor market is contracting, not expanding. These are the markers historians will likely cite as the recession's onset.

7/ 💰 Earnings & Hours: Stagnant wages and reduced hours point towards the recession's grip tightening. The labor market's resilience is faltering, foreshadowing tougher times.

8/ 🛑 Deepening Downturn: We're not just sliding into a recession; we're accelerating into it. The indicators are aligning, and past patterns suggest we'll look back at this moment as the turning point.

I did a full video on this here: https://t.co/q4BZN1btcP