MDP

🎙️Money Markets Mayhem

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

Institutional Money is Praying AI is a Bubble. They're Wrong.

Full video: https://t.co/hU51D7PhWf

Thanks to @jvisserlabs the 🪓 on the Nexus or AI & Macro Investing

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

@crushthemarket As soon as July 1st 27 passes watch the gov pump their fav. asset class again.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

@AvidCommentator No no. This is exactly what's wrong

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

@VinnyLingham Morally corrupt and hypocritical more bitcoiners should have called this out.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

@RayDalio @SamRo Ibiza till I die

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

@fejau_inc The Tres Sec we don't deserve! Haha

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

We don't deserve Sir @SecScottBessent

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

One of the highlights of the Warsh Fed has been watching stenographers posing as journalists, like the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos, reduced to reporting Fed backroom gossip because they’re incapable of performing real economic or monetary policy analysis without being spoon-fed.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

X is full of old men talking while a 24-year-old actually went to war on the new frontier.
@leopoldasch has already done more than most of his critics will achieve in their entire careers. That gap is the real source of a lot of the noise.
Doesn’t make the leverage and risk management issues disappear. But pretending this is just another reckless kid story is cope.
P.S. Congrats on the wedding. Not sure why who someone is marrying is such a big talking point… as if the fund industry isn’t already completely incestuous.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

I see a lot of people dunking on @leopoldasch, which feels like a classic internet mob looking for attention.

Leo’s story is unreal. He went from relatively unknown technologist to one of the top hedge fund managers in the world in less than 5 years.

His original Situational Awareness paper has been quite accurate, not to mention Leo’s ability to drive ridiculous investment returns for his investors through June.

Losing 60%+ of your investors assets in a single month is obviously bad. Leverage is one of the most destructive forces in the world when things go against you.

But let’s not forget that Leo still has a few billion dollars and a strong opinion of the future. If he is right, and he continues to play the risk-taking game, there is a high probability he will still create tens of billions of dollars in returns for his LPs.

The internet mob can do all the dunking they want, but I wouldn’t bet against a smart, young guy who now has something to prove.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

X is full of old men talking while a 24-year-old actually went to war on the new frontier.
Leo has already done more than most of his critics will achieve in their entire careers. That gap is the real source of a lot of the noise.
Doesn’t make the leverage and risk management issues disappear. But pretending this is just another reckless kid story is cope.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

The structural reality is that the majority of PMs operate under incentive regimes (AUM growth > risk-adjusted returns, soft dollars, side-by-side management, career risk that rewards herding/levered convexity, fee structures that are options on other people’s money) that make permanent capital impairment or quiet closure the modal long-run outcome. The ones who treat capital preservation as the only non-negotiable task are the genuine minority. Most of the rest just haven’t had their public moment yet.

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

My two cents on "Situational Awareness"-

I'm sure Leopold was a smart fellow. I'm optimistic he will find something worthwhile to do to contribute towards society. And while I see a lot of grave dancing, he is yet a young man who deserves second chances. However, there is one thing I will stand by with stubborn conviction and you can hold me to: and that is my belief that he should never manage institutional client capital ever again.

Listen to the below exchange, and watch his demeanor as Dwarkesh asks about how to avoid blowing up as so many hedge funds get either the the timing wrong, or approach with too much theory mindset. After a series of hurried affirmations, he starts by responding:

"Yeah, I mean look obviously, you can't ... you know, not blowing up is sort of like task number one and two, or whatever"

For any trained stewards of client capital, this is the ONLY phrase you need to have heard to realize everything you need to know from this two hour interview. You don't need to know his IQ, his pedigree, his experience. You know the only thing that matters. He doesn't care about the golden rule of money management.

He is going to blow up.

As an RIA with fiduciary duty and standard of care, not blowing is, in fact, task number one. It is the only task. There is no other task, and it is definitely not a "whatever." There simply remains no ambiguity in the human mind as to what the job is.

Now, listen to his answer one more time. There is something else here you probably missed the first time. He starts by saying "Yeah I mean look obviously you cant..." and then stops and pivots. Take a moment to think about what you think he was going to finish this sentence with if he didn't just realize that he probably should not finish that thought? Finish his sentence, I dare you. And now you know why it was obvious that he was going to blow up.

One more thing- I debated whether I wanted to post this or not. It's always really painful for me as a PM to watch others blow up in the industry, because I know how much client capital has been damaged (and other collateral damages in the service providers). However, recently there has been a trend of internet personalities who celebrate these kinds of misadventures by justifying risk taking.

We must stop celebrating this culture of charlatans. There are so many public figures that I see online, who simply have no business of managing client capital, vying for attention where they play the very same game. In fact, the people who often come out defending Leopold are more likely that charlatan than not. Because anyone who understands the solemn gravity and incredible privilege of managing client capital knows that what Leopold just said in this video is so horrific to the professional investment management industry. Allocators must be more mindful of who they choose to build trust with. The best allocators know that belief and trust are not the same asset.

So good luck Leopold! I genuinely believe you are a smart, capable, and well-intentioned person-and excited to see what you will do next. We've never lived in a more exciting period in society to affect incredible change and contribution. Refocusing your energy towards what you are actually really good at and deeply care about, is the highest form of effective altruism you can do for others. In fact, it's probably the highest form of situational awareness there is.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

The structural reality is that the majority of PMs operate under incentive regimes (AUM growth > risk-adjusted returns, soft dollars, side-by-side management, career risk that rewards herding/levered convexity, fee structures that are options on other people’s money) that make permanent capital impairment or quiet closure the modal long-run outcome. The ones who treat capital preservation as the only non-negotiable task are the genuine minority. Most of the rest just haven’t had their public moment yet.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

Vhhhgvvhbfgfff

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

Treasury companies that resort to debasing their own stock (via dilution or endless issuance) at any point in the cycle are morally corrupt. They’re adopting the exact same inflationary tactics they claim to be fighting.
More Bitcoin OGs need to call this out and stop the hypocrisy.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

Treasury companies that resort to debasing their own stock (via dilution or endless issuance) at any point in the cycle are morally corrupt. They’re adopting the exact same inflationary tactics they claim to be fighting.
More Bitcoin OGs need to call this out and stop the hypocrisy.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

Treasury companies that resort to debasing their own stock (via dilution or endless issuance) at any point in the cycle are morally corrupt. They’re adopting the exact same inflationary tactics they claim to be fighting.
More Bitcoin OGs need to call this out and stop the hypocrisy.

[Jack Mallers @jackmallers]

I've decided to step down as CEO of Twenty One.

This wasn't an easy decision, but it was the right one. This experience brought tremendous clarity about who I am and what I want to build.

My life's work remains Bitcoin. My Bitcoin company is @Strike.

The work continues.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

Treasury companies that resort to debasing their own stock (via dilution or endless issuance) at any point in the cycle are morally corrupt. They’re adopting the exact same inflationary tactics they claim to be fighting.
More Bitcoin OGs need to call this out and stop the hypocrisy.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

Love this.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of The Odyssey that is historically accurate and true to the art of Homer

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

@jukan05 If AI designs chips faster, trust becomes the bottleneck. Verification and sign-off become more valuable, not less.

[MDP @MMMdailyletter]

If AI designs chips faster, trust becomes the bottleneck. Verification and sign-off become more valuable, not less.

[Jukan @jukan05]

EDA is cooked.

[S.L. Kanthan @Kanthan2030]

Karl Marx never talked about skills. For him, all labor is worth the same.

But you see, of the 11 players in a football team, there’s only one Messi. His productivity and value are way higher than others.

Socialism is for dummies.