Mohammad M Mojahedi

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

After the Iran webinar I participated in today with @LaraFriedmanDC and @barbaraslavin1 (see link below), the legendary John Limbert emailed me to correct my reference about Shapur II defeating the Roman emperor Valerian. (It was Shapur I). And then, he added this golden nugget that everyone should read:

"Glad to help with the history lesson!!  Actually, it's a fascinating story with lessons for our own day.  Julian (unwisely) led a Roman army against Shapur II to support the claims of the exiled prince Homisdas (Hormozd), who had resided for years in the Roman Empire and spoke Greek (and/or Latin) fluently.  He made many friends among the Romans and persuaded the emperor that, in response to a Roman invasion, the Persians would overthrow Shapour and make him (Hormisdas) emperor.  When Julian's army reached Persian territory, however, they found that Hormisdas had no support, and the campaign ended in disaster with the death of Julian from battle wounds and a humiliating peace treaty between his successor (Jovian) and the Persians. Sounds familiar."

https://t.co/j4iXZ0jTPV

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

LOGICAL COURSE OF EVENTS
Gulf states, including the UAE, are finding that Iranian protection is more effective & less #fragile than one by remote Western powers or, of course, by the state currently known as Israel.

[Anahita shokrollahi @Anahitashokrol4]

#اسرائیل در سال ۱۹۸۲ #بیروت را با خاک یکسان کرد.

آن زمان نه #حماسی وجود داشت، نه #حزب‌اللهی، و نه هفتم اکتبری که بتوانند به آن استناد کنند.

فقط ۱۷ هزار غیرنظامی #لبنانی و #فلسطینی کشته شدند.

حتی رونالد #ریگان، رئیس‌جمهور وقت #آمریکا که خودش #اسرائیل را مسلح می‌کرد، بعد از دیدن عکس نوزادی ۷ ماهه که دست‌هایش قطع شده بود، با خشم به بگین زنگ زد و گفت: «این یک هولوکاست است.»

آن‌ها آن‌قدر انسان بی‌گناه کشتند که بازماندگان چاره‌ای جز برداشتن سلاح نداشتند.

بعد هم اسرائیل جسارت داشت که هر دهه، بهانه‌ی «دفاع از خود» را تکرار کند.

اسرائیل تصادفی وارد جنگی بی‌پایان نشد؛ اسرائیل آن را ساخت. آجر به آجر.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

This will ruin your day, perhaps your summer, or even the rest of your life.

But you need to listen to it. You need to know the crimes that are done in your name and with your tax money.

A British surgeon in Gaza testifies that Israeli soldiers used Palestinian children as target practice. One day, they would shoot the children in the testicles, and on other days, in their necks.

They were practicing their shooting on children.

[Joe Kent @joekent16jan19]

The NYT article reveals that our military is telling President Trump what has been obvious from the onset of this war: there is no quick military solution in Iran and our early actions set the conditions for the stalemate we are in now.

Trump’s best option is to declare victory and walk away now. Limit our exposure in the region, reduce the risk of Iran restarting the war on their terms, and reset negotiations with sanctions relief as both carrot and stick.

The Iranians have adapted to our attacks. They can “win” simply by not losing. Future strikes will be less effective, cost us more in casualties, and further harden Iranian resolve.

Killing the Supreme Leader rallied the Iranian people around the regime. By also eliminating many moderate leaders, we’ve left ourselves with mostly hardliners to negotiate with, who are unlikely to give Trump the concessions he’s demanding.

Two lessons we should have learned in the GWOT:

1. If you stay within reach of the enemy, they will adapt and ultimately win the long war by grinding us down. Iran is doing this on a massive scale with ballistic missiles, air defenses, and drones—the same concept as IEDs, just more advanced.

2. Attacking a nation will rally the people around the regime we’re trying to overthrow, or around forces far worse.

Regime change is a fool’s errand.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

Iran must, Iran must, Iran must...

Germany is in no position to issue any "musts" against Iran. After all, Merz himself famously said just a few weeks ago that international law does not apply to Iran...

[Panah Farhadbahman 🎒 @PanahFB]

دیروز که نوشتم رضا پهلوی شهروند آمریکاست و سندش را منتشر کردم، توقع چنین موجی از واکنش را نداشتم. ظاهرا کسی توقعش را نداشته.
به قول دوستی که واتساپ من را به جای توییتر خودش استفاده می‌کند:
«آقا تصور کن رهبر گروهی که خودش را ملی‌گرا می‌نامد، شهروند کشوری است که همین چند وقت پیش کشورش را بمباران کرده. من از تناقض جر خوردم.»
در ایالت مریلند فقط اتباع آمریکا حق رای دارند. شهروندی آمریکایی رضا پهلوی جای هیچ سوالی نمی‌گذارد. سند روی میز است.
از دیروز که گشتم، به نکته‌ای رسیدم که ماجرا را از یک تناقض سیاسی، به یک پرونده‌ی سوگندشکنی تمام‌عیار تبدیل می‌کند.

سوگند اول: ۹ آبان ۱۳۵۹. کاخ قُبه قاهره.
رضا پهلوی در روز تولد بیست‌سالگی، خودش را «رضا شاه دوم» اعلام کرد و سوگند پادشاهی خورد. زیر پرچم سه‌رنگ شیر و خورشید، رسما متعهد شد زندگی‌اش را وقف خدمت به ایران کند، از استقلال و حاکمیت کشور دفاع کند، حقوق ایرانیان را پاس بدارد و برای وحدت ملی بکوشد. تمام میراث سلطنتی‌ای که این آقا چهل و چند سال است سرلوحه‌ی هر بیانیه‌اش می‌کند، روی همین سوگند بنا شده.

سوگند دوم: سال‌ها بعد. خاک آمریکا.
طبق بند ب ماده ۱۴۴۸ عنوان ۸ قوانین ایالات متحده، هر متقاضی تابعیت که عنوان موروثی یا اشرافی خارجی داشته، باید هنگام سوگند تابعیت رسما از آن دست بکشد و این انصراف در پرونده ثبت شود.

متن سوگندی که رضا پهلوی به زبان آورده و زیرش امضا گذاشته، این است:
«بدینوسیله با سوگند اعلام می‌کنم که مطلقا و به طور کامل از هرگونه وفاداری به هر شاهزاده، قدرتمند، ایالت یا حاکمیت خارجی که تاکنون تابع یا شهروند آن بوده‌ام صرف نظر می‌کنم و دست می‌کشم؛ از قانون اساسی و قوانین ایالات متحده آمریکا در برابر همه دشمنان، خارجی و داخلی حمایت و دفاع خواهم کرد؛ به آن‌ها ایمان و وفاداری واقعی خواهم داشت؛ در صورت لزوم قانون، به نمایندگی از ایالات متحده اسلحه حمل خواهم کرد... این تعهد را آزادانه و بدون هیچ ملاحظه ذهنی یا قصد طفره رفتن می‌پذیرم؛ پس خدا به من کمک کند.»

حالا این دو سوگند را کنار هم بگذارید.
در یکی، متعهد شده با تمام وجود از حاکمیت و استقلال ایران دفاع کند. در دیگری، متعهد شده مطلقا و کامل از هرگونه وفاداری به هر حاکمیت خارجی (که برای آمریکا، ایران یکی از آن‌هاست) دست بکشد و در صورت لزوم برای آمریکا اسلحه به دست بگیرد.
این دیگر تناقض سیاسی نیست. دو قسم رسمی است که سر همدیگر را می‌خورد. نمی‌شود همزمان حافظ حاکمیت ایران بود و رسما زیر سوگند گفت دیگر هیچ وفاداری به ایران ندارم.
پس یکی از این دو سوگند، قطعا دروغ بوده. سوال فقط این است: کدام؟
اگر سوگند پادشاهی ۱۳۵۹ راست بوده: پس سوگند تابعیت آمریکا دروغ بوده. یعنی این آقا برای گرفتن تابعیت ایالات متحده، در روز روشن، رو به پرچم آمریکا، با اسم خدا، دروغ گفته. این طبق قانون خود آمریکا می‌تواند مبنای ابطال تابعیت باشد. یعنی شهروندی آمریکایی ایشان، ساختمانی است که روی پنهان‌کاری از یک دولت بیگانه بنا شده.
اگر سوگند تابعیت آمریکا راست بوده: پس سوگند پادشاهی دروغ بوده. آن «وارث به‌حق تخت سلطنت ایران» که چهل و چند سال است سرلوحه‌ی هر بیانیه‌اش می‌نشیند، تاریخ‌مصرف‌گذشته است. خودش در دادگاه فدرال آمریکا، با امضا، از آن دست شسته. تمام آن آیین ولی‌عهدی و مدعی پادشاهی، نمایشی است که خود بازیگر اصلی پشت صحنه برگه‌ی انصرافش را امضا کرده.
راه سومی وجود ندارد.
حالا تسلیت رسمی برای آن سه سرباز آمریکایی، و چاکری پشت چاکری برای ترامپ، معنی واقعی‌اش معلوم می‌شود. این تشریفات نبود. اجرای متن همان سوگند دوم بود.
این تناقض را خود سنت سلطنتی هم تایید می‌کند. در خاندان‌های سلطنتی اروپایی، وفاداری دوگانه با ادعای تاج و تخت ناسازگار است. مدعی جانشینی، تعهد حاکمیتی به قدرت بیگانه نمی‌دهد. این یک اصل پذیرفته‌شده است، نه سلیقه شخصی.
پس بگذارید روشن بپرسیم: این آقا که دنبال تکه استخوانی از ترامپ است و سوگند وفاداری به آمریکا را پای امضایش گذاشته، و از طرف دیگر مدعی رهبری جنبش ملی‌گرای ایرانی است، کدام طرفش راست است؟ ملتی که چهل و چند سال در آرزوی استقلال و عزت ملی سوخته، باید سرنوشتش را به دست کسی بسپارد که خودش، زیر دو سوگند متناقض را امضا کرده؟
#فرقه_پهلوی
#از_دموکراسی_بگو

[The Resonance @Partisan_12]

“We lied about Vietnam. We lied about Iraq. We lied about Afghanistan. We lied about Somalia. We lied about Libya..”

Former Chief of Staff to Colin Powell exposes the dark reality of US foreign policy and how American weapons ended up in the hands of terrorist groups.

[نسق چی @nasaqchi]

فارغ از هر دیدگاه سیاسی، این خانم با هر طرز فکر و هر مرام و مسلکی که بهش اعتقاد داره، برای من الگوی فداکاری، شجاعت و مسئولیت پذیریه.
خانم پرستار دمتون گرم.

[Daniel Davis Deep Dive @DanielLDavis1]

President Trump today convened a “war cabinet” meeting in the White House to consider what happens next week when the current cease-fire expires next Wednesday morning.

What he should conclude is that this “excursion“ was a dramatic mistake, and recognize that the objective of defeating Iran militarily is not possible with the troops we have allocated and the time we have available, and instead of proving that by trying to restart the war, he should admit the plan didn’t work, and seek to extricate the US as quickly as possible at the lowest possible cost.

It is crucial to understand where we are at this point and how we got here:

Prior to choosing to start this war w Iran, there was no threat to the United States, imminent or otherwise.

They were not two weeks from a nuclear bomb, and they had made no move to build one.

The Strait of Hormuz was open and free and unfettered, and about 19 million barrels of oil and all other commodities were flowing freely and without encumbrance, every day.

All American troops in the region were alive and well.

All of our bases were fully operational and unscathed.

24 MQ9 reaper drones were still in our possession, and 13 combat aircraft were still fully functional, and no planes had been shot out of the sky.

The price of oil was a little over $60 a barrel, and every reason to think that it would remain stable at that price.

Our regional allies we’re still whole and protected.

Now none of those things are true now.

The cost has been profound for a war that should never have been started, and it was clear to anyone willing to see the reality that we would end up in a place like this.

And now, it is equally clear that to restart this war by choice, will only deepen all of the costs that we’ve already had imposed upon us, likely more death and destruction for America and its allies, and an even graver interruption of global oil supplies.

And we still will not have control of the Strait, and will be facing a strategic and then military defeat at the hands of someone smaller and much weaker than us.

The only way we could ever lose a war to Iran is if we started one. And now here we are staring defeating the face bc of that bad choice.

The only question now, how much deeper with the cost be to America and our allies if we refuse to learn the previous lessons, and arrogantly go forth, trying to win again with the military.

How many more Americans will have to die to prove what is already self evident?

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

The bad news

In JD Vance’s own words, he stated that Iran has not accepted the US/Israel terms for establishing peace.

But I’d like to know what kind of negotiation this is, in which terms are simply imposed. Did anyone inform the American delegation that this isn’t a surrender treaty?

They seem to be living in a different reality. This is not how you negotiate peace, and this delegation certainly includes many people who know that very well.

Here are 10 points explaining why Iran is not in a position to give in:

1. It controls the Strait of Hormuz, and any attempt to take it would be extremely bloody and result in heavy casualties;

2. It can close the other strait using the Houthis;

3. It has maintained a stable daily rate of missile and drone launches for several weeks, demonstrating it has a large arsenal;

4. Its ground forces still have intact equipment and high morale, especially after the failure at Isfahan;

5. No one knows where the enriched uranium is, nor is there any effective way to seize it;

6. It is Iran that is effectively sanctioning America, with fuel prices and inflation already knocking at the door;

7. It is Iran generating pressure on Trump from Gulf countries;

8. It is Iran generating pressure on Trump from its Asian and European allies;

9. Iran is well aware of the shortage of interceptors and is actively exploiting it;

10. Its air defense capabilities are gradually improving through the deployment of new equipment, showing that Iran has a long-term strategy.

On the other hand, the daily bombings are steadily eroding Iranian infrastructure. The decisive factor in this war is precisely whether this resilience will prove sustainable in the long run.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

So many of you are shocked by Trump's behavior & methods.
But this is what Israel has been doing almost continuously for 80 years & you fucks kept looking the other way.

[Carl Zha @CarlZha]

In 550 BC, King Croesus of Lydia wants to attack the Persians.

He consulted the Oracle of Delphi who told him that he "would destroy a great empire"

Croesus launched the war and his Lydian Empire was crushed by Cyrus the Great

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

On @Bannons_WarRoom, I explain why the Iranians believe they have escalation dominance. If Trump attacks their energy infrastructure, Iran can take out the same infrastructure in the GCC. That will create a production problem that can take years to fix, and as a result, oil prices will shoot up and remain high for months, perhaps years. This will lead to a global recession, which will be devastating for Trump.

As a result, Trump can blow up a lot of things in Iran, but Iran's countermeasures can blow up Trump's presidency.

[خبرفوری @Akhbare_Fori]

رجزهای یکی از کارکنان تاسیسات پتروشیمی بندر ماهشهر در حین حمله متجاوزین آمریکایی-صهیونیستی
‌
قدم می‌زند، وصیت می‌کند، رجز می‌خواند و می‌خندند. آخرش هم می‌گوید: «حمله کنید! ما اگر از شهادت می‌ترسیدیم که نمی‌آمدیم سرکار.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Asymmetric warfare is similar to tail risk. You hit 100 targets; they hit just one and you've lost.

[Art Gallery @X_ArtGallery]

Holding Hands
Persepolis (Iran), c. 500 BC

[Mohammad M Mojahedi @MMMojahedi]

In an unprovoked sneak attack by the U.S., Iran’s top political and military leaders were killed, yet the U.S. political and military establishment is falling apart. Weird, isn’t it?

[Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, MBE now on Blue Sky @sanambna]

The #Pasteur Institute 💔😔
My grandfather donated the land to build the institute as part of the development of Iran’s public health infrastructure.
My uncle led it for many years.
As kids we would visit him & get our various vaccinations.
@Pasteur

This is not about the regime. Israel’s goal is to destroy ori past present and future as a nation.

One day we will try
@PahlaviReza for treason and for aiding & abetting war crimes.

[Reza Nasri @RezaNasri1]

Secretary-General @antonioguterres,

Your Excellency,

On 1 April 2026, during a White House address on “Operation Epic Fury,” President Donald J. Trump publicly declared that the United States had achieved or was “nearing completion” of its core military objectives against Iran, including the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, ballistic missile arsenal and production facilities, navy, and related infrastructure.

Yet in the same statements he explicitly threatened to “hit [Iran] extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” to “bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong,” and to strike “each and every one of their electric generating plants … very hard and probably simultaneously.”

These declarations are not protected political speech. They are direct, public evidence of "mens rea" for the commission of war crimes under customary international humanitarian law and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. They must be condemned immediately and without reservation.

The following substantiates this assertion:

1- The speaker's own admissions that military objectives have already been achieved or are “on track … shortly” negate any claim of continuing military necessity. Further attacks would therefore violate the fundamental principle that force may be used only when required by a definite military advantage at the time of the attack (Additional Protocol I, Art. 52(2); customary IHL).

2- The explicit threat to “bomb Iran back to the Stone Age” and to destroy electric generating plants, objects indispensable to civilian survival, constitutes a prohibited act or threat of violence whose primary purpose is to spread terror among the civilian population (Additional Protocol I, Art. 51(2); Rome Statute Art. 8(2)(b)(i) and (ii)).

3- The statements demonstrate a "priori intent" to launch disproportionate and indiscriminate attacks, knowing that massive civilian harm would be clearly excessive in relation to any residual military advantage (Rome Statute Art. 8(2)(b)(iv)).

4- Under the doctrine of superior command responsibility, president Donald J. Trump and Secretary of War Peter Brian Hegseth would be personally liable for any war crimes that follow. Their own words remove any defense of ignorance or lawful necessity. These declarations will one day be Exhibit A in any future international or national criminal proceeding.

The United Nations was founded precisely to prevent such threats to international peace and security and to uphold the rule of international humanitarian law. Silence or equivocation in the face of these public threats would undermine the credibility of the entire multilateral system.

You are therefore called upon you, Mr. Secretary-General, and upon the authorities copied above, to:

- Immediately and publicly condemn these threats as violations of the Geneva Conventions and the Rome Statute;

- Refer the matter without delay to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for preliminary examination;

- Convene an urgent meeting of the Security Council to address the imminent risk of further war crimes;

- Direct the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights and the ICRC to issue formal legal assessments and monitoring reports; and

- Take all other necessary measures under the UN Charter and international law to prevent the threatened crimes and to protect the civilian population of Iran.

History will record whether the international community acted with the speed and moral clarity that these circumstances demand. The words spoken on 1 April 2026 are now part of the permanent record. They must not be allowed to become the prelude to atrocity.

Cc:
- @antonioguterres – UN Secretary-General
- @UN – United Nations
- @KarimKhanQC – ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan KC
- @UNHumanRights – Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (Volker Türk)
- @ICRC – International Committee of the Red Cross
- @UN_HRC – UN Human Rights Council