Maven Analytics 🏈

Data-driven insights and CFB analytics.

-Power Ratings
-Resume Rankings
-Playoff Projections

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[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

Updated Maven Power Ratings through week 10:

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@jostendorp68 @PDawg206 Resume ratings tend to be a terrible gauge of actual team quality. Resume models definitely have their place, but power ratings tend to do a much better job of judging the quality of teams.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@jostendorp68 @PDawg206 I think your conflating FPI with SOR or SP+ with SP+ resume. The point of FPI/SP+/my power ratings are to predict future outcomes. If removing priors makes them worse at that then they are objectively worse. Resume ratings are designed to handle results to date.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@BarGraphCFB Yeah, I totally agree. Just make it public. People would still complain, but at least they would know what they were complaining about and who to point their irritation towards.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

Guys, I know this is confusing to most people because so much misinformation is spread on here and it’s hard to know what is true and what’s not, but SOS metrics (or any metrics for that matter) have nothing to do with human polling. They are not part of the equation.

[Steven Bartunek @LennyIsaacs12]

Its no surprise. SEC teams get way over rated rankings weekly. They say well "they beat so and so who was ranked 20th....". Issue is they should have never been ranked, it then inflates SEC SOS 's. Texas being ranked 6th is a perfect example of this. Everyone knows this is always about the SEC. They will get 6-7 teams in. GA is the only really good SEC team this year.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@jostendorp68 @PDawg206 What if using only that season's results makes the metric objectively worse? Should we still only include that season's data?

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@MACTTF lol. Yeah, shocker. That's one of those things that I'm not sure we need a comprehensive study to know.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@TheCFBAdvocate As far as this goes, you have to look at it a little more nuanced:

The 13th best SEC team beat the 5th best Big 12 team, the 14th best SEC team hammered the 14th best B1G team, the 4th best SEC team beat the best (w/Sayin) B1G team, the 6th best SEC team beat the 3rd best ACC...

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@TheCFBAdvocate I love the concept! It feels about right as to how the committee might rank those teams. I want to do a deeper dive a little later with each teams schedule.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@Blain_Crain Probably Texas and Tennessee...
https://t.co/PlKwGL7QDU

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

Here are the updated playoffs odds. The prediction model is now weighted 38% committee, 38% resume, and 24% projected wins.

All in all, I felt that the committee did a solid job. I would've flipped Utah and UGA and Miami and Texas. Wake Forest also should be around 10th.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@TheCFBAdvocate @Schultzycast And some models already have the Big 12 ahead of the B1G. SportSource’s data isn’t available to the public. There’s a chance that they may have the Big 12 ahead. 🤷‍♂️

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@TheCFBAdvocate @Schultzycast For sure. I know it’s quite a point of contention on here, but the there is a wide margin between the SEC and everyone else this season. The B1G still has a slight edge over Big 12, but it’s not by much.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@PinosDeli @fbintheboot @HOOS13R @EnterFranklin26 @chrisfallica Nope. The committee doesn’t use any media-affiliated metrics. The metrics that the committee uses are from @SportSourceA.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@TheCFBAdvocate @Schultzycast That special metric could backfire on the B1G pretty hard. The Big 12 is quickly catching up to the B1G.

[Andrew Percival @PDawg206]

@Firstand16_Pod No we are not.

It's closer to the Big Ten than at any point since 2022 (when it was better than the Big Ten, by a decent margin).

But it's nowhere close to the SEC.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@Chase_B5 @PEARatings That was a crazy game!

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

Here are the updated playoffs odds. The prediction model is now weighted 38% committee, 38% resume, and 24% projected wins.

All in all, I felt that the committee did a solid job. I would've flipped Utah and UGA and Miami and Texas. Wake Forest also should be around 10th.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

Here are the updated playoffs odds. The prediction model is now weighted 38% committee, 38% resume, and 24% projected wins.

All in all, I felt that the committee did a solid job. I would've flipped Utah and UGA and Miami and Texas. Wake Forest also should be around 10th.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@ShoobUtes Its going to be a battle! My model has you guys favored by 4.

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

I get what Mr. shoob is saying here, but the reality is that Utah has good for way too long to be the next Indiana. Utah has been a strong program since about the mid-1990’s. Indiana was the worst of the worst before the past few years.

[Shoob @ShoobUtes]

@WestCoastCFB Utes could end up being last years Indiana 🥹

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

@Kyhoops1_BBN Appreciate it!

[Maven Analytics 🏈 @MPFB_Prediction]

Will the CFP rankings show be after Duke/Michigan State game?