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Alyssa Thomas over 15.5 points
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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis ‡οΈ
Alyssa Thomas is in a great spot tonight given the situation and matchup vs the Lynx.
The Mercury return home after losing all 3 games on their road trip and are on a 5 game losing streak. Getting back home in need for a win, I expect their best overall player to be aggressive and put the team on her back so to speak.
Thomas is averaging 16.7 pts to start the year for PHX on 51% FG and 72% on FT's. She is coming off a few down games facing the Liberty twice, scoring just 9 and 15 pts on a combined 39% FG's. That's well below her average, but it also made some sense with NYL being a difficult matchup as they allow the 3rd fewest FG's per game in restricted area.
Alyssa Thomas relies on scoring near the rim, she gets 54% of her total FG's in the restricted area. The key here is this matchup vs MIN is favorable for interior scoring, the Lynx are allowing the 4th most made FG's and 2nd most attempts in the restricted area.
If we take out the 2 tough matchups vs NYL, we see Thomas is now averaging 17.8 ppg on solid volume of 18.83 FG+FT attempts going over this line in 5/6 games. The one miss did come vs the Lynx, however Alyssa had elite usage in that game with 23 combined FG+FTA. She just shot well below he avg both on FG & FT's (2/10 and 6/13).
The Lynx notably have turned Thomas into a scorer rather than playmaker, this was the same as last year too under same coaching. In 6 games vs Lynx in 2025, Alyssa avg 20.3 ppg on 21.5 FG+FT attempts (15+ FGA in all 6). She went over in 5/6 and had an avg of 28.5 USG in those games.
Since 2024 with a 24.5+% Usage and 32+ mins, she averages 20.1 ppg going over this in 12/16 games. A great spot all around, Thomas is over in 3/4 home games this year, avg 18.6 ppg with 20+% USG at home last year with PHX.
Widely available across DFS sites and sportsbooks, we got this line at -114 at time of post in discord.
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Alperen Sengun 4.5 Asts βOβ
(-115)MGM
NBA Propπ#4
@DoctorProfit and I cooked this on a call!
Weβve played this the L2 years against the Kings 5 total times, heβs cashed all of them. Sengun has hit this line against the Kings in 6 straight games with his lowest total being 6 assists. I have to lock this in, especially with his potentials as of recent averaging 9.8 per game in the L12.
Sacramento in the L30 days are allowing the 3rd MOST assists per game. Sengun is over this line in 18/30 (60%) road games. Furthermore, the Kings are bottom 5 in defending the handoff so we should see another excellent assist night from Alpe if his teammates are hitting shots.
This line for me Iβm not overthinking, the potentials are great, & the HR vs SAC is elite.
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