Montauk Reef Partners

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

good analysts like you are trying to find DD FCF yields

great analysts like me are trying on women's lingerie at DD's Discounts

how do you think I know my sector better than anyone else?

I'll bet you'd never think to go to autozone and drink a gallon of windshield wiper fluid, like I did this morning

here's my math on $AZO, and fwiw and DD's is $ROST.

1/5

for a category expansion thesis using conservative market penetration ests, I'm at $5B in 2035 AZO Beverage revs (AZOB), discounted back, apply an SBUX multiple, and I'm at 130% upside to street.

Do you know what street numbers are embedding for AZO's Beverage segment?

Zero.

My variant views shift entire industries. They transform businesses and they open the Consumer sector's eyes as to what they've been missing.

What's my downside on the trade, by the way?

Similarly, zero.

Is 130% up and 0% down good?

For other people, yes, for me, about average.

2.

Now, we need a catalyst to capture that 130% upside.

When there is no catalyst, I create my own.

With one quick email I communicated my view to not just every single Consumer pod, but to Japanese industrials, Russian war material, French bakeries, as well as to every dicator, oligarch, shah, and financial news outlet on the planet.

Why? Because I do this every time.

The first 50 emails nothing happened.

On the 51st email, one person traded off the email I sent.

And because everyone else saw the stock go up after the email hit, they decided that I move markets.

The stock rallied 5%. Everyone saw it rally 5%, which means an email from me is good for a quick 5% trade. Of course, now that 5% has become 20%, and AZO is ripping higher by the second, as all my ideas do.

This is why I command the entire flow of the sector.

They assume I move markets, because I do, and my existence itself is a daily masterclass in reflexivity.

3.

Here's what my email said: **CHATTER AZO +130%**

That's all I ever send.

They look, the stock moved up, and they follow a great investor's footsteps.

Within 10 minutes I will email AZO IR and CEO my updated segment ests to capture beverage upside

They don't know that any of this has even took place, nor do they know I spent the night inside their store because of how well-connected I am with corporate access (the building super).

They also don't know that I'm long into the print and alt data is 30 bps short.

So I spent the night creating 30 bps of comp, just knowing in advance what I could set on fire that's eligible for insurance.

I also ate 35 Goodyear tires. Those, I was just hungry, I don't think they'll be in comps.

Finally, my backup plan is that if comps come in light for the quarter, I burn the store down.

This removes it from the comp base. Removing a negative SSS% means SSS% goes higher and should get us over the street bogey.

4.

Once AZO management gets my math, they will disseminate this to the street, everyone will use the $5B revenue math I sent them, and discount back.

Why? Because the stock is already bid up 7% pre-market. So now it's 123% up, 7% down, and they will all say "worth a punt."

By the end of the week every pod model will have $5B in 2035 windshield wiper fluid revenue

Right now someone is emailing Advanced Auto Parts management to ask:

"Can you do this too?"

Because every AAP bull has a mental "If AZO goes up 50%, AAP has 300% upside."

This is because every AAP bull is both completely delusional and severely affected by PTSD.

I have thought about opening a rehab clinic solely for AAP bulls in the past except all they do is lose money.

But they're missing something here.

AAP cannot do what AZO is doing.

Why?

Because I'm short the stock.

5.

Also, because Advanced Auto's wiper fluid is poisonous to human beings.

Not many people know that...

Except me, of course.

I know my sector better than anyone else on earth, and I created the AZO position as a L/S pair with AAP.

How did I know that AZO's was drinkable and AAP's wasn't?

Well, I know my sector. You can keep asking if you want, even though I've told you 5,000 times that it's the only thing that matters.

Now, here are my event path, trading, and sizing considerations.

I am short AAP but sized for a 15% rally higher on blind spec/read-thru off AZO. I have ORLY as a flier long which should offset 5% of the loss.

With AAP up 10% against me, I will size fully.

The next leg of the event path is that over 3 weeks, the equity will lose 95% of its value.

Because 3 is how long it will take for every Consumer analyst in America to go drink AAP's wiper fluid.

I'd start taking the trade off down 90%, pending where AZO is trading.

Now if you'll excuse me, I must get back to my primary research...which is the plus-size maternitywear section at DD's Discounts.

Good luck with your yields, by the way.

[Montauk Reef Partners @MTKreefpartners]

@Ben_Yoel Reminds me of the Yankees / Soto saga in 2023. Big need, have the pieces, matter of interest in moving

[Montauk Reef Partners @MTKreefpartners]

I typed up a reply here and the reality is idk what to say. Just not an answer for a team who is trying to make a run. Every game counts. Being at the game, it was the first time I’ve been clueless with the management. Tomorrow is another day, but these games make you either winning the division, or chasing for the WC.

[Montauk Reef Partners @MTKreefpartners]

@SNYtv This is a ridiculous response. We were down 2. The game ended with us scoring 4 runs. Terrible response when you don’t want to keep the players who play day in and day out being down 2. Just a terrible response.

[Montauk Reef Partners @MTKreefpartners]

@JakeBrownLive Show your players you want to win every game. Don’t manage like it’s too far of a reach being down 4-2. If you don’t have the bullpen to do it, then stearns needs to find a way to help. Every game counts.

[Montauk Reef Partners @MTKreefpartners]

@JakeBrownLive Manage like it’s going to get to the 9th. Don’t manage like it’s too late to keep it competitive. That’s not a winning mentality. The score would’ve kept it tied (maybe) if you manage like a playoff chasing team.

[Jake Brown @JakeBrownLive]

Listen I think Mendoza is a good manager.

What he did tonight & what he has done on numerous occasions the last few weeks is just poor managing. No way around it.

He’s had the short end of the stick with some of the arms he has at his disposal. But tonight fresh out of a 4 day break & everyone available to go to a AAAA pitcher in a game you’re winning 2-1 is not defensible.

[Sonali Basak @sonalibasak]

When he turns 80, billionaire Todd Boehly wants Eldridge to be worth $1 trillion. Here’s another person who has closely studied Warren Buffett and is building a company in Berkshire’s likeness.

The secret: Compounding.

[Joe DeMayo @PSLToFlushing]

Drew Gilbert keeps up his hot hitting with Low-A St. Lucie, ripping a RBI double in the top of the 1st in today’s matinee

[Montauk Reef Partners @MTKreefpartners]

@SteadyCompound Munger - thank you sir

[Lloyd Blankfein @lloydblankfein]

In finance, most surprising to me is that despite the trillions the US is adding to our budget deficit and national debt, investors (many foreign) will lend the US a virtually limitless supply of dlrs for .6 pct for 10 years.

[Chris Zeoli @chriszeoli]

Great list of the most important S&M and GTM metrics for b2b SaaS companies for Series A and beyond.

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

"My brain . . . it cannot process failure. It will not process failure. Because if I sit there and have to face myself and tell myself, ‘You’re a failure’ . . . I think that’s almost worse than death." -- Kobe Bryant, basketball legend, RIP

[Daniel Ek @eldsjal]

Wow, Howard Marks, whom I admire greatly on 20 minutes VC. So much general good life advice in this episode. Great interview by @HarryStebbings!

https://t.co/YlubDd26tW

[Montauk Reef Partners @MTKreefpartners]

@JonHeyman not a coincidence that he leaves "New York Mets" on his Twitter profile bio. He wants that to stay.

[TechCrunch @TechCrunch]

Meet Lily, a camera drone that automatically follows you, now has $34 million in pre-orders https://t.co/uBfyzfhy8S https://t.co/YNZovqhXae

[Bruce Kamich, CMT @BruceKamich]

SEC settles with Steven Cohen, barring him from running hedge funds for 2 years https://t.co/vujopRGWYO via @WSJ

[Archive: Governor Andrew Cuomo @NYGovCuomo]

We’re building connectivity into the system. All 278 subway stations will have #wifi and cellphone service.

[Caley Serin @caleyserinn]

In my next life I want to be reincarnated as my brother