MW Phoenix

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

People love slurping Toby’s nonsense #natgas

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

The agentic trading stupidity didn’t last long. Or were they all long ercot too? #power #natgas

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

@natty_ary07 @WMitchell618 @Holy_Helicity Wes is the king of nonsense and can’t string together a coherent sentence. Remember last year when we were going to run out of coal and he forgot more about this market than everyone else combined knew?

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

Did anyone ever get the story or understand what the vol buyer was thinking? #natgas @otcengine

[Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93]

Interesting... JPM from their industrials conference: "Bottlenecks in the last 12 months have shifted from broad power/cooling/labor constraints to episodic components (e.g., HV breakers), manageable but rotating. Rapid hardware turnover, which saw four generations in quick succession, has limited standardization and slowed commoditization, pushing a 'put fewer things in the building' approach to compress schedules and cut costs... Supply chain pinch points are rotating even as broader power availability improves, and capacity roadmaps point to a sustained ramp"

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

#natgas

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

@otcengine The buyer was prob on a coke fuelled bender all week and back in rehab by Friday. #natgas

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

@BabyGotGas @otcengine @NGdaily1 Broker saying broker things.

[mmm, btus @mmm_btus]

Can we just stop and ponder at what fv is for TTF if the straights are effectively closed thru Independence Day?

And what is then fv for F27?

#natgas

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

@otcengine The buyer was prob on a coke fuelled bender all week and back in rehab by Friday. #natgas

[Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93]

BNP (Moses. S) feedback re: ERCOT Market Summit Feedback - "The tonal shift was sharp vs. the Feb. 2025 conference. A year ago, it was 'well, of course the CDR report expecting +50 GW load growth by 2030 is wrong, but how wrong?' – and now, as we discuss later on, most sit between 50 and 100+ GW as a baseline load growth interconnected-by-2030 view"

[Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93]

My takeaways from the Eaton call:

-Data center demand hitting escape velocity: Q4 orders up ~200% YoY with sales up ~40%; order mix shifted to 50/50 cloud/AI in 2025 versus mostly cloud previously, with AI loads increasing dollar-per-megawatt content; hyperscalers reconfirmed 2026 CapEx plans; multi-tenant and new cloud players "never seen so active"

-Mega project pipeline provides multi-year visibility: $3 trillion mega project backlog up 30% YoY across 866 tracked projects; data centers represent 54% of YTD announcements; U.S. Dodge data center construction backlog now equals 11 years at 2025 build rates (206 GW); negotiations pipeline hit ~$10B in 2025, up 4x since 2019 at 26% CAGR; these projects convert to revenue over 3-5 years

-Portfolio reshaping toward AI/power infrastructure: Mobility spin-off removes ~$3B lower-growth business; acquired Fibrebond, Resilient Power (800V DC technology), Ultra PCS, pending Boyd Thermal for liquid cooling ($1.7B 2026 revenue expected); dollar-per-megawatt content rising from $2.9M to $3.4M post-Boyd

-Liquid cooling strategy focused on "inner loop" near the chip: Boyd acquisition brings 500 engineers and positions Eaton in cold plates, CDUs, and manifolds protecting revenue-generating assets; NVIDIA's hotter-running chips don't negatively impact inner loop = actually require more sophisticated components; early technical engagement across all chip platforms and hyperscaler roadmaps; partnering with chiller specialists on "outer loop" rather than competing directly

[Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93]

Bulls: AI acceleration/takeoff is here, arms race and Google is full systems go to win this market taking others head on

Bears: unsustainable rate of capex, fcf to zero, awful returns on all of this as capital floods the space

Which camp will be louder in the coming weeks? Market will decide

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

@USAEnergyNatGas Good point. There certainly was a monetizable pattern leading up to last summer. Seems more tame now tbh

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

Tell me you’re biased by ignoring the opening green candles without telling me your biased. #power

[NATGAS @USAEnergyNatGas]

Once I plug in my ICE data going to have the AI analyze power settlement patterns in #ERCOT. Seems to be a pattern when I eyeball the data #Power

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

@BaldayBrutus @TermPowerTrader Prob pretty well, no?

[Knox Harrington, PhD, MBA, ERP, CFA @amn3siak]

Seeing AIRCOT fizzle today

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

@PaulSaladino7 @pcriley Was it a credit issue?

[abluecrab @abluecrab1]

@pcriley it wasn't risk management, they just didn't have the cash to post to ERCOT when collateral requirements spiked overnight

[MW Phoenix @MWPhoenix40]

Ercot power bulls. #power

[abluecrab @abluecrab1]

this will be the sixth time we have crushed ercot rt prices and we have become exceedingly efficient at it