Macro Shelby

[Macro Shelby @MacroJShelby]

@EtihadHelp flight from AUH to LHR 10:40am 01 March family of 4 with 2 children included. Happy to provide a trip reference through DM. We would like to know if possible when we will be relocated to the earliest available flight.

[Macro Shelby @MacroJShelby]

@MarketInterest Red Notice by Bill Browder

[Macro Shelby @MacroJShelby]

@prometheusmacro @pinebrookcap I don't know if it's a lot or not. There's a lot of things that could go wrong. Sfru3 rallied 120 ticks intraday during the march banking crisis. 4 25s doesn't seem crazy at all with 5.25/5.5 FF rates and such high real rates in fwd space. Anyway, good luck. Appreciate your work.

[Macro Shelby @MacroJShelby]

@BobEUnlimited Bob, let me play devils advocate here. I would argue that maybe 5 cuts is actually a relatively low number if inflation is falling as projected. If anything 5 cuts is TIGHENING conditions, not cutting as much as inflation is falling is passive tighening regardless of earnings.

[Macro Shelby @MacroJShelby]

@BisphamGreen What's even more amazing is how can that happen in EU despite all the data we have had over the last month. As a matter of fact today we are barely any tighter vs US or UK

[Macro Shelby @MacroJShelby]

@parrmenidies Also I would argue that in this environment the market will need to discount 1 to 2bps of accidents as negative term premium for any intermeeting cut so the real probability of hike is even larger than it seems at face value.

[Macro Shelby @MacroJShelby]

@NGurushina I think ex ante real yield is -10.5% and 1y fwd looking real yield is -4%. Although they can use a big portion of the EU funds to defend the FX they don't have anything remotely close to the amount of reserves as the CNB. Both CNB & NBP giving up on their inflation mandates now.

[Macro Shelby @MacroJShelby]

@NickGiva 4.75 FF (if not more) by u3 most probably, with neutral rate at around 2 to 2.5 still and with YoY CPI by that time between 1.5 and 4.5 most probably...so would say u23u24 at around -175