The “top” created a ~2.25% pullback and lasted a week- 🤦♂️
Market blasting through 7500 in the illiquid holiday trading session 🫠
Anything can happen in this environment-
I’ll show you guys the most dangerous SPX (upside) positions later today…
US Government is literally telling you what to buy.
"U.S. to Award Quantum-Computing Firms $2 Billion and Take Equity Stakes"
I am usually 2 weeks ahead of others in calling moves.
Was writing about Quantum stocks on May 12th.
People were questioning my Quantum call.
Results are out.
$IONQ +65%
$INFQ +54%
$QBTS +54%
$RGTI +42%
$QUBT +40%
As always, taking the higher road. ✍️
All dips. I mean any 20-25% pullback is an opportunity to scale in.
Everyone should know about this and
Nobody explains hedging with real numbers.
Let me fix that
You have $100k. 90% is in stocks ($90k). The other $10k is where most people get it wrong.
Two ways to hold that $10k:
→ Unhedged: $90k stocks + $10k cash
→ Hedged: $90k stocks + $7k cash + $3k in SPY puts
That $3k? It's insurance on your $90k. That's the whole trade.
Lets get to the numbers:
- Market drops & your portfolio falls by 8%:
Stocks fall to $82,800. → Unhedged: $82,800 + $10k = $92,800 (-7.2%)
→ Hedged: $82,800 + $7k + puts payoff ($7.5k) = $97,300 (-2.7%)
$4,500 difference. Same portfolio. One decision.
- Market rises & few holdings do well but others dont so overall your portfolio is up 5%:
Portfolio climbs to $94,500.
→ Unhedged: 94,500 + 10k ( cash ) = $104,500 (+4.5%)
→ Hedged: $94,500 + $7k ( cash ) + $1500 ( hedges lose 50% = $103,000 (+3.0%)
You gave up 1.5%.
That's the cost of sleeping at night.
Hedging isn't a cheat code.
You won't win in a bull run.
But it's not for bull runs. It's for:
→ When volatility picks up
→ When the market is showing clear weakness
→ When indices are rangebound, use hedges to hold the stocks you like without sweating every dip. The puts offset your losses
You're not trying to predict the crash. You're just making sure one bad month doesn't undo a good year.
For 80% of people- The Best strategy is just raise enough cash.
That's the whole point.
Save this for everyone can revist this at a later date.