Madeline Dunk

Economist, ANZ. Views are my own.

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads declined 2.2% m/m in June, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. But the level of Job Ads is still 17.8% higher than pre-COVID levels. @MadelineDunk @CallamPickering @cfbirch #ausecon

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts. The series is back at its lowest level for 2024. Household confidence in the 12-month outlook for the economy fell by 5.4pts, to its lowest for the year. #ausecon @madelinedunk @arindam_chky @blairrchapman @RoyMorganAus

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence increased 1.6pts, although confidence remains low, averaging 83pts in 2024. This is 30pts below the series’ pre-COVID (1990-2019) average. #ausecon @madelinedunk @arindam_chky @RoyMorganAus

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose 1.7% m/m in January, largely due to a lift in ads for management and software development roles. @MadelineDunk @CallamPickering @cfbirch @mbansi #ausecon

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Indeed Aus Job Ads has declined 8.4% over the last three months, but remains high compared to historical levels. The biggest declines in job ads has been in the therapy, sales and software development categories. @MadelineDunk @CallamPickering @cfbirch @arindam_chky #ausecon

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Structural changes in Australia's economy have driven a decline in the NAIRU since the 1980s and will continue to do so over the next decade with implications for economic forecasting and monetary policy. #ausecon @blairrchapman

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads was broadly stable in September and has risen 2.2% over the last three months. @MadelineDunk @CallamPickering @MBansi @AdelaideTimbrel #ausecon

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Australia's retail sales continued their soft run, rising 0.2% m/m in Aug. The series has grown less than 3% this year, despite inflation and strong population growth. It's clear the economic environment is sapping households’ appetite to spend. #ausecon @madelinedunk

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.4pts. Each subindex was down. Inflation expectations rose to 5.4%, reversing the falls of the last 2 wks. This is likely to be of interest to the RBA, given petrol prices have averaged over $2/L for 6 wks. #ausecon @madelinedunk

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.2pts to its highest since late Apr. While it remains at very low levels, there are signs of tempered optimism amongst households. Inflation expectations also fell to 4.9% – the lowest since Feb 2022. #ausecon @madelinedunk @RoyMorganAus

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: the recent upswing has hit a roadblock, with the index falling 1.1pts. Confidence has now printed below 80pts for six months – the longest stint on record. #ausecon @madelinedunk @arindam_chky @RoyMorganAus

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads have risen 2.6% over the last two months, driven by new ads in education and healthcare. @MadelineDunk @CallamPickering @MBansi #ausecon

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Australia's dining/takeaway spending continues to outperform other retail categories. It is up 9% y/y vs a 1% rise for total retail sales excluding dining/takeaway. #ausecon @madelinedunk @AdelaideTimbrel

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-observed Australian spending was down 10.4% y/y in the first 20 days of August. The pullback is being felt in the CBDs, with in-store spending down 12% y/y in the nation’s city centres. #ausecon @madelinedunk @AdelaideTimbrel

[Bansi Madhavani @MBansi]

The #Barbenheimmer frenzy lifted entertainment spending in Aus, making it the only segment to see annual growth. However, overall spending is down as consumers appear to hold back on discretionary spending - my colleagues @madelinedunk & @AdelaideTimbrel's @ANZ_Research report.

[Richard Yetsenga 叶森 🇦🇺 🇭🇰 🇹🇭 🇳🇱 @ricyet]

#RBA on an extended pause with rates at 4.1% in our view. @ANZ_Research

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-observed spending continues to soften and was down 11.4% y/y in the first 8 days of July. Services spending momentum is coming off, with dining/takeaway and travel well down compared to 2022. #ausecon @madelinedunk @AdelaideTimbrel

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 2.5% m/m in June, but is 47.5% higher than pre-pandemic levels. It will take time for the tightness in the labour market to ease. @MadelineDunk @CallamPickering @adelaidetimbrel @arindam_chky

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

The latest retail sales and job vacancies data support the case for the #RBA to hike 25bp in July. Retail sales posed its strongest gain since January, and there are still more than 430k job vacancies in Australia. #auseco @AdelaideTimbrel @madelinedunk

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ-observed spending shows shopping, dining and travel momentum are all consistent with a weak result for Q2 consumption. #ausecon @AdelaideTimbrel