Giorgia Maffini

Tax @PwC @PwC_UK | International Research Fellow @OxfordTax | Former @OECDtax | Mum | Views are my own. RT does not mean endorsement.

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

I don't agree with this kind of nihilistic take. Truth is a process. Everything is contested by someone. In the US Vs Europe, some truth has emerged. Everyone agreed the US is growing faster and so is US productivity. Everyone agreed tech prices are dropping and that complicates things. You can see how many large companies Europe has and how many the US, how much we innovate. And yes, there are some crucial disagreements, but we can understand what they hinge on after the conversation.

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

We stopped everything to write an answer (link below) to Paul Krugman's two posts of today (one informal, one with a simple model) arguing that Europe is broadly not falling behind the United States.

The change measured by the Draghi report, he argues, is mostly due to growth in the technology industry, which has distorted GDP numbers without actually leading to higher standards of living. We should believe our eyes when we walk around France and walk around Mississippi.

Krugman is wrong. The measures he uses understate European stagnation. This matters enormously. Divergence with the United States is the strongest evidence for reform in Europe.

1. The growth numbers

Krugman compares the United States, France, and Germany at purchasing power parity in current prices. On that measure, France's and Germany's position relative to America has been roughly constant since 2000.

But current price comparisons miss productivity gains in sectors where prices fall. If America produces twice as much software while the price of each unit halves, the value of American software output looks unchanged even though the volume has doubled.

Most economists therefore use constant prices, which fix the base-year PPP level and apply each country's real output growth on top of it. American output growth has concentrated in tech, where prices have fallen tremendously as productivity rises. In terms of the volume of things produced, America has pulled away from Europe.

2. Is it all the tech industry?

Krugman concedes this tech divergence but says it is not welfare-relevant. The American growth lead is an accounting artefact of measuring more iPhones at base-year prices, not a sign that Americans are actually richer, because Europeans buy the same iPhones at the same world prices.

This is not the right way to think about the world today, as an earlier Paul Krugman would have argued.

His model assumes tradable goods, interchangeable workers, marginal-cost pricing, and no profits. Each assumption fails.

Most of what households buy is non-tradable: housing, healthcare, childcare, education. When American tech firms bid workers from haircutting to coding, American haircut wages rise. Germany has no growing tech sector to do the bidding, so German wages stay flat.

Technology is not priced at marginal cost. Apple's margins are around 40 percent. Anthropic's inference margins are at 70 percent. The major platforms enjoy network effects, switching costs, and lock-in that hold prices well above what a competitive market would deliver. A large share of the productivity gains in technology stays as profit.

A lot of the value of American technology dominance shows up in equity, not in wages. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon together are worth $21 trillion, more than the entire combined stock market value of all European stock markets. Around 60 percent of US equity is held by American households. The median French or Spanish household holds almost no equity.

The median employee at Meta, a company with almost 80,000 employees, earned $388,000 in 2025.

This advantage is not going to go away. Krugman's own 1991 paper, cited in his Nobel prize, showed that comparative advantage in modern industries is produced by increasing returns to scale, specialized labor markets, supplier networks and the agglomeration of suppliers, workers, and ideas in particular places. Once an industry concentrates somewhere, the concentration is self-reinforcing. Europe is being pushed away from the next round of technology industries (AI!).

3. What about inequality?

Another retort is that GDP per capita hides substantial inequality, and so even if America is rich on average, this is mostly due to the super wealthy.

But despite the US's high pre-tax income inequality, it also achieves higher median incomes than Europe, in part because of such a high base, and in part because it actually redistributes more than many European countries.

The cleanest comparison is median equivalised disposable household income: income after cash taxes and transfers, adjusted for household size and purchasing power. According to the OECD's 2021 numbers, the median American earns 30 percent more than the median Dutchman, about 31 percent more than the median German, and about 52 percent more than the median Frenchman.

4. What about hours worked?

Krugman points out that while American GDP per person is higher, most of this is because Americans work more. For this divergence to be an hours worked story, Americans must work more relative to Europeans now than they did in 2000.

The opposite has happened. Birinci, Karabarbounis, and See in a 2026 NBER paper show that about half of the American-European hours gap that existed in the 1990s has reversed by the end of the 2010s. Americans work fewer hours per person than they did in 2000, while most Europeans work more.

5. Is America not a bad place to live?

Walk around Alabama and France: surely the former cannot be substantially richer than the latter?

American cities often have poorer centres and richer suburbs or exurbs. European cities preserve richer and more attractive historic cores. A visit to a city as a tourist in America compared with a city in France will leave one having seen different spots on the income distribution. Americans in Europe go to the nicest and richest European cities.

Rather than a walking around test, do a driving around test. Go to the periphery of any modern American city and see a level of new-built material wealth that is extremely uncommon in Europe, with thousands of enormous four- or five-bedroom homes. In the South, in places like Nashville and Austin, drive around the downtowns to see hundreds of luxury apartment buildings springing from the ground. This construction boom is replicated virtually nowhere in Europe today.

The other question is generational. Housing often costs more in Europe than in the United States, despite the quality of the housing stock generally being much better. Europe has nice city cores but these are inaccessible to young Europeans.

Consider the salaries available to entry-level workers. The starting pay for a London police officer is $57,000. In Washington, DC, $75,000. The entry-level Deloitte consultant job in Madrid pays around €28,000, roughly $33,000 per year. In Charlotte, the entry-level Deloitte job pays $63,000.

There are many things to dislike about life in America. But relative to 25 years ago, the gap in material wealth has shifted dramatically in America's favor.
https://t.co/VOpQ32R5tg

[Mario Macis @Mario_Macis]

This isn’t right, conceptually and empirically/politically. Economics’ caution is about interpersonal comparisons of utility, but once you state a social objective (even mildly inequality-averse), redistribution is straightforwardly justified. And liberal democracies do redistribute, including toward children; when they don’t do enough, it’s typically a political choice, not “economists preventing it.”

[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@JudithFreedman Great news, Judith. Been waiting for that for a long time!

[Faculty of Law @OxfordLawFac]

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[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@cblatts @oreillycf - FYI

[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@danieldbunn Congratulations, Daniel!

[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@goodtaxtakes @mick_keen Thank you! A) paper stays relevant after pillar 2: competition could continue but with new 15% floor B) paper useful wrt UK patent box revenue estimates (in years well before pillar 2). Need a counterfactual. Paper describes one C) paper’s findings not exactly as in your post.

[Oxford University Tax Law @Oxford_MScTax]

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[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@DanNeidle @delaFeriaR Thank u, Dan. We do not know the extent of the issue yet (just observing behaviour starting to change) and someone is already proposing a solution that, if implemented will cost the economy more than it raises. Let’s focus on fact based tax policy instead.

[Jeff Hoopes @JeffLHoopes]

Michelle Hanlon and I wrote a letter raising concerns about the corporate tax on minimum tax in the #BuildBackBetterAct , and got 264 other accounting academics to sign it. See the coverage of it here: https://t.co/fgeaUwj8VY

[Colin Graham @Colin_F_Graham]

How might the recent developments with the OECD, Inclusive Framework and G20 affect your business?

Sign up now to join @MaffiniG, @WillMorris_DC, @PamelaFOlson & other PwC tax specialists for a 20 Oct. webcast to talk about it:
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[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@SandsStMedia @sblakelock1 @OECDtax @kvandend3

[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@sblakelock1 @HelenMiller_IFS @liceP1

[Sarah Blakelock @sblakelock1]

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[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@JudithFreedman @iaincampbell07 @delaFeriaR Maybe different equilibria for different combinations of firm/employees? In the long run, more mobile employees may join more flexible firms. Also, could technology (VR) help reducing the drawbacks of not being in close proximity, at least for the most innovative players?

[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@alanotte23 @Caro_Malcolm

[Giorgia Maffini @MaffiniG]

@alanotte23 Thank you, Antonio!

[TaxMan @JusticeTwo]

No cliche's, no BS, just insightful commentary & analysis from @MaffiniG and @rescobarstack on the global tax reform plan of @OECDtax and @G20Governments Watch and learn! @IBFD_on_Tax

[Pascal Saint-Amans @PSaintAmans]

139 members of the Inclusive Framework on #BEPS are negotiating a solution on the #tax challenges arising from digitalisation. Statement coming soon. ⤵️