Maggers

Value Investor

[Maggers @Maggers78]

Closing the loop on a few things.

I won’t be posting ideas here anymore but if I like or repost anything you can be certain I am interested.

I appreciate the value of externalization of ideas here in this forum and am thankful for those whom have engaged with me on some.

A closing update on some of the names I made most noise on the past few years

I have now sold $KGC (is still good but not the free money it was in the $3s) still own $CXBMF and $NGD as still rather cheap. Gold going to $3k pretty soon I suspect. Have a small holding in $PAAS too.

Good luck out there!

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

Reading sell-side notes on $HOG is like watching someone fail a freshman accounting exam in real time.

They are building enterprise value by adding $2.1B of HDFS funding debt to market cap. That debt is matched against $2.4B of finance receivables. It is non-recourse to the parent. It is identical in structure to Ford Motor Credit, which no one includes in Ford's EV.

Half of the models are also still using share counts from 2024, before the company retired 26.8M shares. The current count is 105.3M. It is the second line on the cover page of the 10-Q. You do not need a Bloomberg terminal. You need eyes.

Strip HDFS out properly and HDMC operating EV is ~$1.1B. Management is guiding $350M+ of 2027 EBITDA. That is roughly 3x. Peer normalized multiples are 7-10x.

These are six-figure salaries to mis-add a balance sheet. Their parents deserve better.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Earnings boom really accelerating.

Forward estimates now up >25% YOY.

Passing through the first part of Q1 reporting, forward estimates are leveling up.

Updated chart below...Unprecedented.

[Financial News @FinancialNews]

Equity hedge fund Magarian gains 95% in debut year

https://t.co/UGhMQyATxX

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

$HOG is up over 30% since I published this.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

Harley Davidson $HOG is the cheapest stock I know.

[Wedekind Research @RichardWedekin1]

@leevalueroach is right here!

Harley Davidson has ~$3B in Cash and ~$1.65B in longterm Debt, so we talkt about $1.45B in net cash

They generated $415M in Free Cashflow in 2025 and bought back stock worth $353M

$HOG marketcap is $2.3B

[Maggers @Maggers78]

https://t.co/B0rHRT2VHd
$HOG

[Insider Monkey @insidermonkey]

🚨 $4.7M+ Insider Buy Alert: $NSP

Director SARVADI PAUL J bought 201,987 shares of INSPERITY, INC. on Mar 19, 2026 for $4.7M at $23.21/share.

Current price: $22.72 · YTD: -41.2% · Stake increase: 74.6%

Recent insider buying: 3 other insiders bought in the last 30 days

[Form4Wire @Form4Wire]

🟢 CEO BUY — $NSP

Sarvadi Paul J buys $4.7M
• 201,987 shares @ $23.21
• Position +16%
• Stock −75% from 52W high
• Trade: Mar 17, 2026 | Filed: Mar 19, 2026

💡 Signal: 8/10

#InsiderTrading #NSP

[Will Meade @thechartdr]

Probably dead bottom for $HOG @harleydavidson
CEO made a rare insider buy and its dropped below the $20 psychological round number. Plus its a premier brand with sticky customer loyalty.

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

$JD at $30, is the same price it was at in 2014.

Except Revenue:

2014: $18 Billion per year
2025: $161 Billion per year

Nearly a +900% increase.

We shared the same chart for $BABA when it was at $70....before it ran to $192

Verdict: severely undervalued:

PT $100.

[Fenix Vanlangerode @Fenmagne]

I published a deep-dive on $DOW: a value case hidden inside a supply glut nobody wants to touch.

Trading around tangible book while normalization or delay can both drive upside.

Full thesis here: https://t.co/LfKMCFaRoH

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

$JD

Clear.

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

$JD at $29, is the same price it was at in 2014.

Except

Revenue:
2014: $18 Billion per year
2025: $161 Billion per year

Nearly a +900% increase.

We shared the same chart for $BABA when it was at $70....before it ran to $192

Verdict: severely undervalued

PT $100.

[Maggers @Maggers78]

@Fenmagne Follow me so I can message you

[Maggers @Maggers78]

@Fenmagne Accurate. You still doing your substack? Not much activity lately.

[Fenix Vanlangerode @Fenmagne]

$CE Celanese insiders continue to buy the stock. CEO and CFO bought ~$363k in December at around ~$41/share. In total this year, insiders have bought ~$1.49M at around ~$47/share. Also: I still don’t see any open-market insider sales in 2025.

[Charles Gasparino @CGasparino]

SCOOP: Despite massive losses to his net worth, Larry Ellison will deliver a ‘full backstop’ for mogul son David’s plans to buy Warner Bros. Discovery as bidding war heats up: sources @wbd $WBD @paramountco @Skydance
https://t.co/giv20s57Sf

[Joe Flint @JBFlint]

With a deadline just days away, Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for Warner Bros. Discovery. W/@laurenthomas
https://t.co/qEZ6yFYWHu via @WSJ

[Wall Street Rollup @WallStRollup]

Comcast hires bankers to explore a bid for Warner Bros Discovery's studio and streaming assets

Comcast has hired Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to evaluate a prospective offer
$WBD $CMCSA