Mahmoud | مَحْمُودْ

Facts everyone knows… but no one faces

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Competition between US and Chinese AI models is heating up:

The proportion of tokens used by US firms that run through Chinese AI models on OpenRouter is up to a record ~58%.

OpenRouter is a platform that allows developers and companies to access and compare AI models from multiple providers, making it a useful gauge of real-world AI model adoption.

This percentage has TRIPLED since mid-January, overtaking American peers on the platform for the first time in March.

The token share of Chinese models briefly rose as high as 63% in the first week of July.

By comparison, Chinese models accounted for less than 10% of usage at the start of 2025, while US models accounted for ~80%.

DeepSeek has emerged as the most popular choice among American firms in recent months.

Chinese AI models are rapidly gaining market share.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices surge above $90/barrel as the Iran War escalates.

[Mahmoud | مَحْمُودْ @Mahmoudali683]

@egypt1standlast سيبك من البلوزة البنطلون ده مسروق من عم مجدي بتا�� العرقسوس الي عندنا 😆😆

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Anthropic's valuation takes a hit following the release of China's Kimi K3 AI model.

Now a 67% chance it hits $1,500,000,000,000.00 by the end of the year.

[Megatron @Megatron_ron]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 China is now leading the AI ​​race after spending ten times less of what the US did

Kimi-K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is now number 1 in the Frontend Code Arena with 1679 pts, surpassing Claude Fable 5.

[Mahmoud | مَحْمُودْ @Mahmoudali683]

@egypt1standlast @WbMarketo ده انت جامد 😂😂

[Mahmoud | مَحْمُودْ @Mahmoudali683]

شكلنا مش هانخلص🙃

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

America is waking up to some major news.

Peace talks between the US and Iran have failed and both sides have returned home.

As a result, Iran is refusing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without a permanent peace agreement and the US has called it "bad news" for Iran.

Now, we await President Trump's response.

If the path forward is continued war, escalation, and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then the Iran War has just entered a new era.

US CPI inflation just jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% and further escalation of the Iran War would lead to 4.0%+ inflation, according to our models.

Meanwhile, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament just announced that the US "failed to gain Iran's trust" during negotiations. There are currently no plans for additional talks, according to Iranian media.

So, will Trump choose to push harder for diplomacy or double down on military action?

Today, we find out.

[Bloomberg @business]

Egypt agreed to buy all the gas that will be produced from the Aphrodite deposit in Cyprus, as the North African country looks to ensure long-term supply and reduce reliance on Israel https://t.co/btSenbZnmX

[Mahmoud | مَحْمُودْ @Mahmoudali683]

Everyone is fighting a battle you know nothing about
Some hold on too tight because of trauma, fear, or lack of self-worth
So don’t judge them by what you see
Strong people often carry stories you’d never want to live

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

The $3 trillion repo warning everyone's missing

Bitcoin just crashed. Repo rates are screaming. And the Fed's talking QE again.

But here's what nobody's connecting:

We have TWICE the bank reserves we had in 2019's repo crisis.

Yet SOFR rates just broke above the Fed's ceiling on $3 trillion in daily transactions.

That's not a reserves problem. That's a "nobody trusts anybody" problem.

Consider this:

Subprime delinquencies already match 2010 crisis levels

We haven't even seen the real layoffs yet

WTI oil just flashed contango (textbook deflation signal)
Bitcoin's liquidity exodus is telling us where stocks go next

The Fed's solution? "Maybe we'll do QE."

Here's the thing - QE doesn't fix liquidity.

It fixes sentiment.

It's financial theater designed to make you feel safe while smart money exits.

Want proof?

Look at who's NOT lending in overnight markets right now.

Banks with cash would rather sit on it than lend at ANY rate.

When overnight lenders - the most conservative players in finance

- won't lend for 24 hours even at premium rates...

What does that tell you about what's coming?

Free breakdown of what's really happening →https://t.co/cgvV4x2Rrp

[Xander Chin @XanderChin]

hand-controlled boids

[Mahmoud | مَحْمُودْ @Mahmoudali683]

@alcoachxyz Gm coach ☕

[bro.fun @bro_dot_fun]

brother...lock in.

you're gonna wanna be early for this one, my guy.

first movers eat.

hop on the waitlist and start racking up points before the rest of the @monad squad shows up.

👉 https://t.co/jvU6ckWDfN

[Mahmoud | مَحْمُودْ @Mahmoudali683]

@Ambitiousman0 ما شاء الله اللهم بارك
الف مبروك ابو العز ربنا يخليهالك تتربي في عزك ان شاء الله ❤

[Virtuals Protocol @virtuals_io]

Introducing Virtuals Robotics.
1/ Since inception, Virtuals’ north star has always been to build a society of AI agents. A network where agents can coordinate, transact, and create value.

(1) Through ACP, we enabled agent-to-agent commerce.
(2) Through Butler, we bridged human-to-agent collaboration.
(3) Through Unicorn, we solved capital formation for agents.

Each layer extended the reach of digital intelligence. Now, that network expands into the physical world through Robotics, where intelligence gains presence and action becomes material.

[Happy @happysubstack]

https://t.co/gMxkBRPKg1

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

Prediction: Bitcoin will flip gold.

I don't know exactly when. Might take some time, but it will happen. Save the tweet.

[Mahmoud | مَحْمُودْ @Mahmoudali683]

@Ambitiousman0 اشتراك في بوت السيوله او دوره اللامركزي 😁

[ASHRAF | CryptoMe @Ashraf_Cryptome]

كنت أظن إن المشاريع القوية تبقى ، لكن اكتشفت
متأخر إن اللي يحدد مصيرها مو الشارت .. بل اقتصاد
العملة نفسه.

من وقتها تعلمت أقرأ وافهم (اقتصاديات العملة)
خل أشاركك الشي اللي تمنيت أعرفه من البداية 👇

بسم الله نبدأ ..

معادلات الـ ( Depth Tokenomics ) حتى تكتشف
إذا المشروع (استثماري) أو مجرد (فخ تفريغ منظم) .

الموضوع ثقيل شو�� بس راح أشرحه بأسهل طريقة
ممكنة , وراح تشكرني لما تنجو من مشروع FDV مليار
وتخصيص الـ VC فوق النصف 🤝

قبل لا نبدأ، الاداة @Tokenomist_ai راح تساعدك
باقوصاديات العملات واطبق عليها الكلام الي اقوله
بهذا المنشور
.
1️⃣ الفكرة الأساسية :

VC Dominance = مؤشر ضغط التفريغ
وهو ما نسميه بالـ (Dump Pressure)

(هيمنة رأس المال الاستثماري) تعني كم نسبة
التوكنات بيد المستثمرين الأوائل (VCs) , وإذا كانوا
يملكون نسبة ضخمة , حرفيا إنك ما تشتري عملة انت
فعلياً تشتري قنبلة مؤقتة ! 💣

2️⃣ اولا لازم تفرق بين CMC و FDV :

👈 CMC = القيمة السوقية الحالية (ماركت كاب)
= السعر × عدد العملات المتاحة حالياً .

👈 FDV = القيمة السوقية الكاملة
= السعر × إجمالي العملات الكاملة ( بعد انتهاء الفتح الكامل ) .

المستثمر الذكي يهتم بـ FDV لأن CMC ممكن تخدعك ! 🧠 .. ( مثال افتراضي ) 👇

عملة سعرها 0.05$ وتقول (رخيصة) ؟
بس يمكن FDV مالها 5 مليار !!!

3️⃣ المعادلات الذهبية ( احفظها عندك )

🧠 احسب متوسط FDV للمستثمرين :
= قيمة التمويل ÷ نسبة التخصيص

مثال :
مشروع جمع 10 مليون دولار ووزع 10% من التوكنات

10M ÷ 0.10 = 100M FDV
وهي قيمة الـ FDV وقت دخول المستثمرين

🧠 احسب الربح غير المحقق للمستثمرين :
= FDV الحالي ÷ FDV وقت الاستثمار

مثال :
إذا FDV الآن 500M والمستثمرين دخلوا على 100M

معناه 500 ÷ 100 = 5x ربح غير محقق

يع��ي كل VC ماسك بيده 5 اضعاف استثمارة ربح
جاهزة وقت الفتح ( استلام الحصص ) 😬

4️⃣ الفك والتوزيع ( Vesting ) :

إذا عرفت :
- كم يمتلكون ؟
- كم ربحهم حاليا ؟
- متى تبدأ التوزيعات ؟

راح تقدر تتنبأ هل رح يسوون Dump بالمرحلة الجاية؟
او لسه منتظرين أرباح أعلى ؟

توزيعات التوكنات مهمة جداً متابعة توقيتها 👌

5️⃣ المعادلة النهائية والأخطر 💣

VC Dominance ( هيمنة المستثمرين ) :
= نسبة التوكنات المخصصة للمستثمرين ÷ إجمالي
المعروض

مثال:
مشروع مجموع التوكنات 1B (مليار)
و المستثمرين يملكون 300M ↓

300M ÷ 1B = 30%

👎 هذا يعني الـ VC عندهم (هيمنة) ضخمة
ومتى ما أرادوا يخرجون … السوق يغرق بعملاتهم

نصيحة اخيرة اصدقائي : 🙏🏻

اقرأ الـ Tokenomics وكأنك مدقق مالي و لا تدخل
مشروع الـ FDV اعلى بكثير من CMC بدون حساب او
دراسة جداول فم الحصص او بدون اشارات مضاربية