Manbearpig Capital

Ancient Astronaut Theorist

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@investingluc https://t.co/zLHCM5dTZo

Coming along..

[DonaldPumpernickle @DonPumpernickel]

IONEER secures strategic letter of intent with KIND and Hyundai Engineering to advance Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron project.

Are you listening yet? - Don’t say I didn’t warn you. $IONR

[DonaldPumpernickle @DonPumpernickel]

While the USA $KEEL crew is sidelined for Juneteenth, the Canadians up north are absolutely sending $KEEL.TO to new highs. Love to see it.

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

A company I have been looking into recently: Ioneer $IONR. Lithium miner I followed closely in 2021 and it may be coming back to life. @johnarnold (perhaps the biggest Chad in energy/commodity history) is the largest holder via Centaurus Capital at 14%. Company is Australia HQ but dual listed on Nasdaq a couple years back, $350mm USD market cap.

They own Rhyolite Ridge in Nevada. It’s the world’s largest lithium-boron reserve and only of its kind in the US. The project was held hostage in 2021 because environmentalists wanted to save a plant. Ioneer eventually got the permits, but lost their 50% $500mm JV partner, Sibanye-Stillwater, at the trough in lithium prices in early 2025. IONR was left without a JV partner and the market forgot about it.
Meanwhile, they updated their feasibility study which showed total reserves 4x from prior. Upped NPV to $2.2B from $1.3B, and Boron got added to federal critical minerals list in November of 2025.

The DOE closed a $1B loan to the company in Jan 2025, but the conditions precedent to draw require closing an equity partner for the build.

GS is shopping the deal right now. And in April, Ioneer said they expected to close in the June quarter. Since GS started shopping it, lithium prices have doubled off the bottom and we’re in the early innings of a datacenter-driven battery buildout.

Once a partner is signed (maybe in next 1-2 mo), IONR can draw on the Gov’t loan. It’s pretty similar to the LAC deal, so it’s entirely possible that the US government takes an equity stake in exchange for interest deferral / some sort of PIK deal. 

NFA DYOR

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

Cape station phase 1 should be at a 70-80mm run rate by early next year. Napkin math phase 2 in 2028 adds another ~$300mm top line. Capex / equity commitment likely fully covered for years with this big a raise, so won’t be a dilution story either. It’s a more real energy story than any of the SMR / energy hype stocks at the moment. Real MW on the grid, and soon.

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@UncleAlpha007 $FRVO will be another. Totally under the radar & probably public in a couple months. Hoping to get a nice allo thru broker.

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@zephyr_z9 The $100mm figure everyone’s latching onto seems a little bombastic. Extrapolating the pnl of the ramp period where utilization is near zero

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@BichonRedux https://t.co/alE97teR2B

Getting picked up on wsb

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@planert41 Seeing a lot more stuck over the last couple days. Thoughts?

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@pennycheck It might as well say “we are accelerating neutron permitting”

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@bankless

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@BichonRedux

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@blknoiz06 @Credib1eGuy You should join as an advisor to $DFDV or $UPXI. @CryptoHayes just joined $UPXI

[Lazarus @Lazarus_Capital]

Pipeline for $WYFI
$73M ARR end of June 30th
$15M ARR coming online end of Aug.
Q3 will be >$88M (cloud)
Q4 eh
Q1 will have MTL2 and MTL3 online.
MTL3: $11.2M ARR colocation deal
MTL2: depends on customer signings but $8M ARR potential.

clear visibility to $100M ARR by end of Q1

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

@Lazarus_Capital Right there with you

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

Golden age of private credit + AI infrastructure boom. This deal + Apollo’s recent SDC transaction paint a very positive outlook for future Helios funding availability. Bullish $glxy

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

Showing $25.5 now

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

$WYFI IPO INDICATED TO OPEN AT $34

[Manbearpig Capital @ManbearpigCap]

Source: BBG
$wyfi $btbt