Pingu_Quant

are you stochastic? cause you’re volatile and within the spectrum

[Leandro @Invesquotes]

Tomorrow I will publish an in-depth report on the robotics industry

I'll explain...

1. My framework to understand the industry
2. The size of the opportunity
2. What players participate in each industry sub-segment
3. What sub-segments I like the most and why

See you then!

[Yiannis Zourmpanos @yianisz]

Companies don’t make those investments unless demand visibility is extraordinary.

this is bullish not just for $COHR, but for the entire photonics ecosystem: $LITE, $TSEM, $ALMU, $AAOI and $AEHR

The market spent the last two years chasing compute.

The next phase may be chasing the technologies that allow compute to communicate.

[high cagr @HiCagr]

$AAOI x $AMD?

[Michael Sikand 🦑 @michaelsikand]

Guys we need to talk about $AAOI...

$AAOI is one of the most controversial stocks in the world and I enjoy the disagreement.

Pretty cool that's it up 3x since I went long with many thousands of investors riding it with me up some portion of that gain on @joinautopilot.

But what's cooler is that I think it's still asymmetrical here.

So let's break it down and figure out where we're at $170/share today.

Management argues they can get to $471M in monthly transceiver revenue by Q2 2027.

If you're new to photonics, this is because transceivers are one of the hottest commodities in data centers right now (they translate electricity to light) and 3 hyperscalers are working with $AAOI on this.

At management's 40% gross margin target, that's ~$5.6B in annualized revenue. Run past opex, interest, tax, dilution, we might land around $14-15 in EPS on that run rate.

That's a 2028 number though because 2027 is the ramp mid year, so let's call it bull case $9 of EPS in 2027.

So at $170/share right now, on these calcs, you're paying 19x 2027 earnings, falling dramatically to 12x for 2028.

Don't trust management? Fair. Haircut both the revenue and the margin target by 30%, let's say we get to $4B at a 28% gross margin instead of $5.6B at 40%.

You still land near ~$6 in EPS, just over the analyst mean estimate for 2027E. That's 28x at $170, still WAY cheaper than $LITE and $COHR trade right now.

$LITE is at a 50x NTM forward PE per Fiscal AI.
$COHR is at 47x NTM forward PE per Fiscal AI.

You're paying a fraction of the multiples of its peer group for a faster growing business because execution is still a huge question mark.

If you are an asymmetric trader like me, you might have a large concentrated position in $AAOI for these reasons.

I do believe the stock at $170 is still a solid entry point and I began loading again heavily in the 160's.

[Pingu_Quant @Manenist]

@GrindeOptions Iran war peace deal with Mega IPOs makes retails wanna nut their savings in it

[AI Evolution @AiEvolutio58513]

The most dangerous man in tech and AI isn't Elon Musk or Sam Altman.

It's this guy... the ex-CEO of Twitter

Musk refused to pay his $40M severance.

As revenge, he built an AI empire that crushes Grok, OpenAI, and Claude...🧵

[Milk Road AI @MilkRoadAI]

This is WILD!

Goldman Sachs says Wall Street consensus 2027 hyperscaler Capex estimates are too conservative (Save this).

The consensus lands at $920 billion but Goldman thinks it could reach $1.4 trillion.

Here is how they get there.

Hyperscaler capex, the combined AI infrastructure spending of Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle went from $261 billion in 2024 to an estimated $805 billion in 2026, a 3x increase in two years.

The consensus for 2027 assumes growth decelerates sharply to just 22%, which is where Goldman pushes back.

Goldman economists compared that assumption against every major infrastructure buildout in history, railroads, highways, electrification, the internet and found they consistently consumed 2 to 3% of GDP at their peak.

At 2% of US GDP, hyperscaler capex reaches $950 billion in 2027 and at 3%, it reaches $1.25 trillion.

In the most aggressive scenario where hyperscalers deploy every dollar of operating cash flow plus the full capacity of the investment grade credit market, the number reaches $1.43 trillion.

The fourth chart is what makes the Goldman case feel earned rather than aggressive.

Hyperscalers are expected to reinvest 98% of operating cash flows directly back into capex in 2026, a ratio only ever matched during the telecom bubble of 2001.

The critical difference is that these companies are actually generating the cash flows that are being reinvested, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft combined are printing hundreds of billions in operating cash every year and putting nearly all of it back into infrastructure.

A buildout this large creates supply chain pressure and earnings volatility in the names most exposed, and Goldman is not dismissing that risk but the direction of spending is not in question, the only debate is whether 2027 comes in at $920 billion or $1.4 trillion.

The companies sitting directly in the path of that spending are the ones worth owning.

Nvidia captures the largest share of every hyperscaler capex dollar, owning 80%+ of AI training compute, and Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 capex estimate specifically because of continued Nvidia demand.

Oracle is the fastest growing capex spender among the five hyperscalers on a percentage basis up 116% from 2024 to 2027 with the smallest absolute base, giving it the most runway remaining.

CoreWeave and Nebius sit between the hyperscalers and frontier AI companies, renting GPU capacity to anyone who cannot get on the hyperscaler queue fast enough and as that capex number grows, so does their total addressable market.

Milk Road subscribers already up massively on these names, come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown and what other names we are watching for just a dollar.

Link below!

[Pingu_Quant @Manenist]

@FirstSquawk Net and yahoo, what do you gotta say about this?

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN CONFIRMS US IRAN DEAL

#BREAKING

[Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow]

Here is how big IPO's typically trade

Will SpaceX be any different?

[Pingu_Quant @Manenist]

@VJNCapital You would have to log it to see a proper visualisation of it

[amit @amitisinvesting]

NEW COMPANIES JUST ANNOUNCED TO JOIN THE NASDAQ 100 $QQQ:

$NBIS $RKLB $CRWV $TER $ALAB

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$NOW and $IBM are expanding their partnership to help enterprises unlock AI across legacy apps, messy data and IT operations.

The collaboration combines ServiceNow AI Platform with IBM watsonx and automation tools with new solutions expected in 2H26.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

ServiceNow $NOW and $IBM just announced a new partnership

"to address two of the biggest barriers blocking enterprise AI at scale: the AI-ready data problem and the legacy application layer."

[Pingu_Quant @Manenist]

@Smart_Money @0xbeehive Theres like a trillion stock patterns, theres even one that shows exploding growth too 🤭

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back.

Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex.

Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen.

Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4

[Investing visuals @InvestingVisual]

$MU net income growth is insane:

• Q1 2025: $1.5B
• Q2 2025: $1.8B
• Q3 2025: $3.2B
• Q4 2025: $5.2B
• Q1 2026: $13.7B

From $1.5B → $13.7B in just 5 quarters.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$NVDA Networking Senior Vice President refuting recent analyst reports on delays:

- “ the most exciting stuff is co-packaged optics.”
- There is no delay in H2 CPO product delivery schedule.
- CPO switch will enter mass production and begin ramping up customer deliveries as planned in the second half of 2026

This was a media article, original interview source credit should have been credited to Tae Kim / Computex.

Something fun to note too was this quote “Gilad was VERY enthusiastic about the CPO ramp from Nvidia.”

Both near term and long term.

Yeah… I’m extremely bullish on CPO alongside Nvidia.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should.

The initial selloff was just stupid.

[Pingu_Quant @Manenist]

@qualtrim The free cash flow is up cause thats the only thing they can do before no one uses it