Maple Tree Capital 🍁

Deep Investment Research | Portfolio Manager @HenryInvests | Two Portfolios - Jonagold & Heartwood |

[Henry @HenryInvests]

Had a great time @PlanetMicroCap Las Vegas, 2026! 😎 ⚡️

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$UEC 🫡

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$UEC

Top watch for 2026 - looks explosive. Formed a nice channel with an explosive move higher following the April sell-off.

Now forming a clear bull flag with RSI in an uptrend and sitting at healthy levels after a >250% move from the April lows. Sitting above all MAs.

🔋

[Henry @HenryInvests]

Duolingo $DUOL is very interesting to me.

If you exclude the one-time tax benefit, DUOL is trading at about 55x LTM earnings. This is a business that will post ~40% topline growth this year on ~72% GMs and 16% Net Margin (ex-tax benefit).

Yes, their user growth is slowing. But the key here is that the user growth is slowing - users are still growing in aggregate (although not linear).

I modeled this out and accounted for topline growth grow decelerating to ~24% in 2026, 19% in 2027 and 15% in 2028 all while GMs compress to 71% while R&D and S&M grow in absolute terms. From here, I arrive at ~$5.50 in FY28 EPS. That's about a 30x multiple at a $163 price.

Management has explicitly said that they are choosing to pull back on short-term monetization to focus on "teaching better" which will result in new users, which will eventually result in more bookings. I have experience with the gamified Duolingo app and am a believer in their approach to teaching/learning.

Most of the stock price drawdown has been a re-rating of what were insane multiples as the growth story matures. I believe AI will be an accelerant to Duolingo's business, helping them create a better product across a wide range of categories. They are an application layer play for the intersection of AI and education.

The stock is still a little expensive, but I think the business is fundamentally strong and I have confidence in @LuisvonAhn. I am keeping Duolingo on my watchlist but do not own it as of today (neither does Rebellionaire).

What are your thoughts on the Owl? 🦉

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$LMND

Base breakout, hugging moving averages. Looks phenomenal.

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$UPST

Huge, volatile base. Back tested the earnings gap, nice reversal last week, currently flagging. Catalyst watch with balance sheet & earnings here.

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$RDDT

Definitely looks like it wants higher. Very small bearish divergence but trend is constructive and has broken out of the channel.

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$LYFT

Breaking out of a huge base and now forming a bull flag. Fundamentals are solid - waiting for volume.

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$UEC

Top watch for 2026 - looks explosive. Formed a nice channel with an explosive move higher following the April sell-off.

Now forming a clear bull flag with RSI in an uptrend and sitting at healthy levels after a >250% move from the April lows. Sitting above all MAs.

🔋

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$CRWV

Descending wedge after a >300% move post-IPO. ST looks like a period of consolidation. $64 range was a great LT entry, with overhead resistance ~$91

RSI is making higher lows while CRWV price dips are getting a little shallower.

I think this one could have a good 2026.

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

I'm going to be posting more charts / TA this year.

I am very far from an expert - a lot of these charts will be pretty elementary and my goal is to improve and learn. If you see something that is wrong or have any feedback, I would greatly appreciate hearing from you!

[Henry @HenryInvests]

I underperformed in 2025.

Yearly Performance versus SPY:

@MapleTreeCap Jonagold
2023 100.96% vs 26.29%
2024 103.57% vs 25.02%
2025 10.82% vs 17.88%
Since 1/23 Inception 353.35% vs 86.11%

@MapleTreeCap Heartwood
2023 35.68% vs 26.29%
2024 2.64% vs 25.02%
2025 13.01% vs 17.88%
Since 1/23 Inception 57.36% vs 86.11%

While I fell short this year, I am proud of my relative performance in Jonagold considering my largest holding UPST was down 28% in 2025. LMND was my biggest winner. Heartwood continues to be a challenge. This year I was an early adopter of the neo-clouds (NBIS, CRWV) but that cut both ways as the theme faded into year-end.

I'm most proud of myself for holding through several periods of extreme volatility (up and down). Definitely think my 'stomach' remains really strong - I'm not getting shaken out of my investments. That said, I probably am holding a few too long. I'd like to focus more in 2026 on managing that volatility with options (a little tricky when your top holdings are restricted securities :P) Now that I will have durable capital coming in, I feel like I can finally start to scale my investments and be more opportunistic with cash.

@MapleTreeCap Q425 shareholder letter coming soon. This will be my last quarterly letter, as I will be switching to annual updates from here. 🍁

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

Maple Tree Capital Reports Mixed Q3 2025 Performance

Jonagold (13.12)%
Heartwood +40.20%
https://t.co/oWoHbTXuJM

[Henry @HenryInvests]

Just finished writing the Q3 2025 @MapleTreeCap shareholder letter ⚡️

Will release later tonight, by far the most detailed letter I’ve ever published.

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

Amended date: Maple Tree Capital to report Q3 performance October 8, 2025

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

Maple Tree Capital to report Q3 performance October 6, 2025

[Henry @HenryInvests]

ICYMI: Upstart’s Trustpilot #UTPI Signal Just Flashed Red - But the Real Story’s Under the Hood $UPST via @rebellionaire, authored by @HenryInvests
https://t.co/vXL2G8UWlH

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

$AEHR provided a remarkable entry on this mornings shakeout... new HOD

[Maple Tree Capital 🍁 @MapleTreeCap]

took a flyer on $GPRO

[Henry @HenryInvests]

Excited to share that I’ve accepted a position as an Equity Research Associate with @rebellionaire starting in January!

I’m thrilled to join a team of innovative, forward thinkers who are at the forefront of identifying disruptive market opportunities.

Thank you to @bradsferguson and @nerdalert for their confidence and for making this opportunity possible.

[Henry @HenryInvests]

Henry Invests of @MapleTreeCap Boosts Upstart $UPST Price Target from $150 to $180, Cites Accelerating AI Synergy, Strong Product Momentum, and GAAP Profitability