Marc

Investor looking for and providing great ideas and information.

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

What a rotten deal we made with Iran. We get nothing (except laughter at our stupidity). They get everything, including delay and big cash!

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@SpecialSitsNews Then why is the president of Iran bringing up terms? He needs to STFU if he has no control over the war.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Last wk, S&P +1.1% powered by Mag7 +2.3% despite multiple possible headwinds: 1) $OWL -12.1% on credit concerns- again, 2) SCOTUS ruling against tariffs, 3) new Claude features impacting security stocks, $HACK -4.8%, & 4) weaker GDP & higher PCE than expected.

Looking ahead into this upcoming week, the marquee event will be $NVDA earnings on 2/25 and the stock & market reaction the following day. While most including myself believe both results & guidance will be strong, the question will be how the stock reacts.

I would note that when results were reported for the prior quarter on 11/19/25, despite beating consensus revs expectations by $2.1B and guiding above consensus by $2.8B for the following quarter, the stock opened 5.1% higher the next day but closed down 3.2%. This also led to a nasty reversal in the S&P from being up 1.4% at the open to down 1.6% by the close. Nvidia’s stock closed this past Friday just 2% above its level on 11/19/25 despite hyperscaler spending estimates for CY26 having moved from 25-30% spending growth to closer to 60% during this time period. The main concern would be higher memory prices potentially impacting forward gross margins which has hit a few stocks during the recent Q4 earnings season.

With the S&P trading at 23x CY26 PE against 9% forecasted revenue growth vs Nvidia trading at 25x versus 59%, I believe the stock represents a good risk versus reward.

One tell ahead of Nvidia results may be how the AI related names, and in particular the OpenAI ecosystem versus the $GOOGL ecosystem, react to OpenAI news over the weekend. @theinformation reported that during the recent fund raising round, OpenAI raised its revenue outlook for the next five years by 27% but also warned it will burn more than twice as much cash as it spends with $665B on running and training its AI. The cash burn from 2026 through 2029 is expected to approach ~$220B cumulatively before turning positive in 2030 at nearly $40B on revenues of $283B. This compares to $13B in revenues in 2025 with a cash burn of $8B.

Will the glass be viewed as half empty (much bigger OpenAI cash burn forecasts) or half full (higher revenue forecasts)? It has been viewed as half empty for the OpenAI cohort since late October of last year (down 28% from 10/29/25 through 2/20/26) including a 4% year-to-date decline. This compares with the performance of the software ETF $IGV which is down 30% (10/29/25-2/20/26) but down 24% YTD.

While I still believe easy money policies should be a tailwind for a diversified group of stocks as seen by the Equal Weighted S&P 6.5% and R2K YTD 7.3% versus the more concentrated S&P +0.9% and Mag7 -5.2% YTD, I think stock picking in all sectors will become even more challenging as the impact of AI spreads beyond just tech as I discussed over the past few weeks.

Congratulations to our men’s hockey team for their first gold medal in 46 years and may we as investors be as fortunate this year.

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@agentic_orange @itsjeaniebeanie @TimInBostonMass @IAmPoliticsGirl You’re treating human life like a political scoreboard. 'You didn't mourn my guy, so I get to mock your guy.' That isn't justice; it's just vengeance masked as debate. I don't need to pass your purity test to know that what happened in this video is wrong.

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@TimInBostonMass @DowdEdward They’ll keep “paper” alive by printing a lot of money and yield curve control.

[Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972]

https://t.co/5HzGW6OTjO

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@CollinRugg If this is public information, its political maneuvering. Actual invasion won’t happen.

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@DowdEdward Hi Ed
Saw this pst in one of my telegram groups. Any thoughts?

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@inthecity_77 @SquawkCNBC @StocktonKatie Who do u like?

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@InternetH0F Were you blocking his pedestrian pavement access?

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@Mower20101 @LeylaKuni Why is it a false equivalency? US dollar is not what it used to be.

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@Oxbow_Advisors @Mike_Taylor1972 Great Interview. Thank you!

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@Tim58580200 @josephwang @AitkenAdvisors @JackFarley96 Guys, do you it’s plausible that the 10-year Treasury yield could spike upward to the 4.5 to 5% region before eventually dropping to a 3-handle? …depending on how the interplay of reciprocal tariffs, economic growth, and Federal Reserve actions unfolds?

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@WOLF_Financial You can’t go by average net worth because the ultra rich skew
it up a LOT. The median net worth for that age group is only $247,200

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@flieldy @churchofpayton That’s how it works in the longer run -lower handling/shipping costs overall should translate to lower goods prices IF there is enough competition.

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@churchofpayton How about 25% then? 77% more seems ridiculous . And automation should at least be phased in or prices go up for everyone.

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@SpecialSitsNews It’s $75K for longshoremen in NJ. Where did you get this chart? https://t.co/r2eZCL3ovz.

[Marc @Marc39364037]

@YossiGestetner @Markzandi Politically motivated economist.

[Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) @SpecialSitsNews]

Where is this administration on ISSUES THAT ACTUALLY MATTER? This man could reignite inflation for thousands of poor families...but who cares in our government?

The head of the East Coast Longshoreman union threatening to cripple his own people (Americans)...by paralyzing half of U.S. trade, while wearing a long gold chain

Free speech is fine, but I think this man will find himself in jail one day. Listen to the video.
https://t.co/JUiYDiE9DR