Maria Sterkl, she/her

Viennese in Jerusalem. Israel/Palestine correspondent for DER STANDARD + others. Find me on Bluesky. Also, abortion is a human right

[Maria Sterkl, she/her @MariaSterkl]

@NadavElimelech ראשונה או טרומית?

[Elizabeth Tsurkov @LizHurra]

It takes immense courage to protest against Hamas inside Gaza, especially since the militia consolidated its control over the Strip since the start of the formal ceasefire. During the war, multiple protests erupted against Hamas' authoritarian and predatory rule over Gaza.
More on Gazans' anger toward Hamas for bringing ruin upon the Strip by launching the Oct 7 attack: https://t.co/D6WlKJ5f1L
Long but interesting interview with a former adviser to Ismail Haniyyeh lambasting the militia https://t.co/BdCyJtIlAt
On the religious rulings of the Mufti of Gaza, Sheikh a-Dayah criticizing Hamas
https://t.co/QtUrmyCdPD

[Maria Sterkl, she/her @MariaSterkl]

@NikolausWildner @FunkhausZorra Biddesehr :)

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

NYT offers a detailed account of how the U.S. decision to go to war with Iran was taken. A key role was played by Israel, in a meeting on February 11 in which Netanyahu and Mossad chief David Barnea persuaded Trump of the regime change scenario. While the Israeli PM’s role in convincing Trump is incontrovertible, especially after Netanyahu’s visit to Mar a Lago in late December to begin the process of softening Trump up, what comes out of the account is a distinct sense that there was much skepticism among U.S. officials after Netanyahu’s presentation, but that the ultimate decision was Trump’s, despite strong pushback.

The CIA’s John Radcliffe called the Israeli regime change scenarios “farcical,” leading Marco Rubio to add, “In other words, it’s bullshit.” JD Vance also expressed grave doubts, and CJC Dan Caine added: “Sir, this is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed. They know they need us, and that’s why they’re hard-selling.” Only Hegseth was a major supporter of the war.

But a distinct impression from the piece is that almost no one was willing to take a strong position against the war. Everyone seemed to be covering his or her ass. While subtly signaling to Trump it was a bad idea, they failed to understand that Trump was not the ideal person to catch subtle signals. We know that Caine likely leaked to major newspapers and outlets the risks of running out of ordnance, but when offered a chance to give a strong yes or no opinion, failed to do so. https://t.co/4zv9CcB5iM

[Maria Sterkl, she/her @MariaSterkl]

@KarimAkramovic Bitte auch den Text lesen. Da steht es ziemlich klar

[Maria Sterkl, she/her @MariaSterkl]

@LizHurra Working, thanks!

[Maria Sterkl, she/her @MariaSterkl]

"Paradoxically, years from now this war could end up contributing to Iran’s future power if it fails to bring about regime change."

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Israel and the United States appear to be in an all-or-nothing gamble vis-à-vis Iran.

The likelihood of another campaign of the scale we are currently seeing in the coming months or years is very low, given the heavy political and logistical constraints — not to mention the possibility of other conflicts that could draw in the core attention of the United States, first and foremost China–Taiwan as we approach 2027.

Given that this may be a near one-time opportunity, it is clear that Israel and the United States are doing everything they can to maximize the achievements of the campaign — including attempts to work with various actors to destabilize the Iranian regime from within.

But what happens if the Iranian regime survives? And if, after this campaign, it moves to rebuild its strategic capabilities — including the nuclear program? It is doubtful that the United States and Israel would again be able to mobilize such a concentration of military power for another round.

This creates a Catch-22. Despite the significant operational achievements, ending this campaign without the fall of the regime — or at least without a surrender-type agreement in which Iran abandons its nuclear and missile capabilities — could lead to a situation in which the regime eventually rebuilds and grows stronger without an effective way to stop it.

Paradoxically, years from now this war could end up contributing to Iran’s future power if it fails to bring about regime change.

The regime clearly faces enormous internal and external challenges and will not recover easily. But ending the campaign in a way similar to previous rounds — if that is even possible — could produce the opposite of the intended outcome.

The key question, therefore, is whether the administration will intensify its activities to pursue the far more ambitious goal of regime change, or instead move quickly toward some form of agreement that could constrain Iran’s future military buildup — if such an agreement is even achievable.

Like poker players pushing all their chips into the pot, Israel and the United States seem to be “all in.” The strategic upside of regime change would be enormous for the region — but failing to achieve it could lead to a particularly painful strategic loss.

#iranisrae

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

First, to claim only he can solve the crisis (that he is creating), a typical formula. Chaos & violence push people toward a "law and order" strongman. Also, as the midterms approach, the grounds must be prepared for interfering with the democratic process for "security" reasons.

[Adrienne LaFrance @AdrienneLaF]

“Recent events have brought Trump’s governing style into sharper focus. Fascist best describes it, and reluctance to use the term has now become perverse.”

https://t.co/C84Vof84SX

[Alireza Talakoubnejad @websterkaroon]

As others have pointed out, now that the protests have been suppressed down to a more controllable level, the big question is whether the funeral cycle will renew them.

A huge number of people died on Thursday across many different cities.

Important dates for them would be the 7th day & particularly the 40th day after their deaths.

In 1978/79 the occasion of the 40th day after deaths was very important in keeping their momentum going.

In 2022, Mahsa Amini's 40th had an enormous turnout and galvanized further protests.

Of course there may be precautions taken by security services to prevent any politicization of funerals. But given the numbers involved that will be challenging.

[Maria Sterkl, she/her @MariaSterkl]

@nurityohanan same here ♡

[Foreign Press Assoc. @FPAIsPal]

FPA statement on the fatal killing of journalists in Gaza

[Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي @NTarnopolsky]

💥#Breaking: Israeli human tights organizations @Btselem and @PHRIsrael declare that Israel is committing a genocide in the Gaza Strip. https://t.co/vhQgMTlViS

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

I spoke with @biannagolodryga on @cnni about the humanitarian disaster in Gaza and the efforts to reach a ceasefire deal. Watch here:

[ℝ𝕠𝕤𝕚𝕖 𝕊𝕔𝕒𝕞𝕞𝕖𝕝𝕝 @rosiescammell]

#Gaza

"What I suffer from is mainly related to the difficulty of accessing food.

"I used to weigh around 110kg.

"Today I weigh between 65 and 70 kg."

https://t.co/OSEys8qLBk

[Jonathan Whittall @_jwhittall]

[8/8] Those with influence can’t say they didn’t know, only that they chose not to act. Israel wasn’t given a suggestion by the ICJ. It was given a legal order. A ceasefire is overdue, but that alone won’t end this atrocity. All orders of the court must be implemented.

[Maria Sterkl, she/her @MariaSterkl]

Wenn Ron Prosor lieber Zensurbehörde wäre, sollte er den Job wechseln 😇
cc @sophie_tann

[Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي @NTarnopolsky]

💥Endless horror in Gaza: 19 people, mostly teens, were crushed to death by mobs this morning in the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation compound, and one more was stabbed to death. First GHF acknowledgement of deaths in its space.

[Maria Sterkl, she/her @MariaSterkl]

@IBahazit @ezdubs_bot https://t.co/Gq9WIdcdOn English

[אימהות בחזית @IBahazit]

"המשך המלחמה בעזה הוא איוולת מדינית, צבאית וגם ערלות לב. הסיבה? אדישות וחוסר אכפתיות" - האלוף במיל' גיורא איילנד.
המלחמה הזו פוגעת בכולנו.
צריך לסיים אותה – ולהחזיר את כל החטופים. עכשיו.