Market Pulse

Daily macro regime intelligence — liquidity, credit, rates, crypto. Crypto & capital markets specialists, building what we couldn’t find elsewhere.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

Our proprietary Regime Indicator combines liquidity, rates, credit & macro data to signal when markets turn Risk-On or Risk-Off — and when it’s time to take risk. Follow us to know when conditions shift. 🙌🏼

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Yes, we are past the point of no return.

When debt service payments squeeze out spending, it is like plaque in the circulatory system squeezing out the flow of blood. It is the same kind of thing, and it can be measured. We are seeing that happen right now.

There is also a supply and demand issue. A budget deficit means that debt has to be sold. We can see this happening in the bond market—bonds have been a bad investment, and there is pressure on interest rates and borrowing.

This dynamic is happening, but people are treating it like it hasn't happened before. They don't understand that, just like plaque in the arteries, the debt builds up and they have that exposure.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

@RayDalio This shows up in our data too — 10Y real yield at 2.41%, historically high. Supply is heavy, and someone has to absorb it at a price that clears the market.

The picture is clear!

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

@Satstacker09 Und wie der noch vorhandene sich nicht nach und nach in Luft auflöst 👀

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

Japan just ran its largest single-day FX intervention ever — $53B to defend the yen. Dollar dropped 3% in hours.

Now the US Treasury has told banks to “stand ready” for its own intervention.

The real problem: a 260bp rate gap between the Fed and BOJ.

Intervention buys time — it doesn’t close that gap.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.4% yesterday — not broad risk-on, one stock did the heavy lifting.

Microsoft beat big: Azure grew 43% (vs. ~40% expected), and CapEx guidance held steady instead of escalating. That combo is exactly what the market needed to believe the AI spending is paying off.

Still, Nasdaq is negative over 30 days despite the pop — one earnings beat doesn’t undo weeks of real-yield pressure.

Cheers!

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

JOLTS Job Openings drop Aug 4.

Below 7.5M would reinforce the concern already raised by last month’s weak 57K NFP print.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

@Satstacker09 In der Regel leidet man 6 Tage. Der Sonntag ist fast schon am stärksten mit Leid behaftet, weil man weiß, dass man am nächsten Tag noch die gesamte Woche vor sich hat.

Besser —> finanzielle Intelligenz nutzen und aus dem Hamsterrad raus. 7 Tage Leben mit MarketPulse 🙌🏼💯

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

Die 10-jährige Treasury-Rendite liegt bei 4,66 %, die 2-jährige bei 4,22 %. Die Federal Funds Rate liegt bei 3,63 %.

Die 2-jährige Treasury-Rendite preist damit bereits heute ein höheres Zinsniveau ein – noch bevor die Fed den Leitzins hebt.

Die 10-jährige Realrendite liegt bei 2,41 % – historisch hoch und aktuell einer der größten Bremsfaktoren für die Risiko Assets.

Der 2s10s-Spread ist wieder auf +45 bps gestiegen. Kein Zeichen für stärkeren Wachstumsoptimismus, sondern vor allem für höhere langfristige Inflationsrisiken.

Macro Regime Score: +0,051 (zuvor +0,154) — Neutral

[Nic @puckrin]

Most investors don't know how much AI they own.

US tech concentration is now beyond dotcom levels & semis are taking a bigger share of the index.

That's a problem because chip stocks are correlated, cyclical & geared to the AI capex cycle.

If AI spending slows, they fall together.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

@puckrin If that AI bubble bursts … nobody is diversified enough to dodge it.

[Nic @puckrin]

Your mortgage rate is being set in the Middle East.

30yr fixed just hit 6.66%, a 12-month high.

The chain: Iran war lifts oil. Oil lifts inflation fears. Fears lift Treasury yields. Yields set your mortgage.

Rates were below 6% in February.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

10Y Treasury at 4.66%. 2Y at 4.22%. Fed funds at 3.63%.

The 2-year is already pricing rates staying higher than they are today — before the Fed has said a word.

10Y real yield at 2.41% — historically high, and the single biggest brake on risk appetite right now.

2s10s spread just re-steepened to +45bps. Not growth optimism. Long-term inflation risk.

Macro Regime Score: +0.051 (down sharply from +0.154) — Neutral

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

@puckrin Zoom out: the US is carrying record debt, and every basis point on the long end matters more the bigger that number gets.

At some point rates need to come down because debt load leaves no other option.

That’s when the for crypto has come 🚀

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

HY credit spreads at 284bps. IG at 81bps.

Not distressed levels. But both have widened over the past month — HY +10bps, IG +5bps.

Credit markets usually spot stress before equities do.

Is this the first crack, or just noise?

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

Liquidity is improving.

So why isn’t crypto breaking out?

Because liquidity isn’t the only macro force that matters.

With 10-year real yields still at 2.41%, financial conditions remain restrictive despite improving liquidity.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

A 30-year mortgage now costs you more than 7% — the highest in over a decade.

Blame the 10Y Treasury at 4.62% (+21bps this month). Every basis point there flows straight into what you pay to buy a house.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

Nasdaq 100 down 6.5% over the past month vs. Dow +1.42% — a rotation out of long-duration growth into value.

The driver: 10Y real yields up 22bps to 2.41%. High real rates compress the present value of future earnings, and nothing punishes that more than high-valuation tech.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

@RobynHD Die Anleiherenditen gehen aber scheinbar ihren eigenen Weg 👀 .. die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Zinserhöhung dürfte mit Hinblick auf die September Sitzung noch weiter steigen.

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

Liquidity is doing the heavy lifting right now: M2 growing 5.53% YoY, RRP draining $55B in 4 weeks. But 2.41% real yields keep a lid on things, and consumer sentiment just fell to 44.8.

Macro Regime Score: +0.154 (down from +0.165) — Neutral
2 bullish · 3 neutral · 1 bearish

[Market Pulse @MarketPulseHQR]

Consumer discretionary vs. consumer staples: down 6.65% relative to its 90-day average.

Investors are quietly rotating out of growth-sensitive stocks and into defensive names.