Marshall Fraser

One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@vanckzhu I ended up selling it all. If they buy something at 10x EBITDA for $40 million, the multiple is still higher than I’d like. If they find a home run acquisition, I can always revisit

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@tangentstyle I agree that $ERIE doesn’t need to consolidate, but he’s not wrong about the underlying deterioration at Exchange. Do you have a differing view of Exchange?

[Citrini @citrini]

“haha I’m up so much YTD I could just close the book and be done for the year”

you won’t though. we all know you won’t. nobody ever does. stop pretending and get your ass back to the pnl mines.

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@blondesnmoney Why the “No” on $ACIC ? I own both it and $IGIC

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@blondesnmoney Great write up! Curious that Hingham $HIFS owns 7.6% of $CBNA, I don’t remember ever seeing $HIFS having a stake in another bank

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@vanckzhu The call transcript reads like they’re not concerned about the Nasdaq de-listing, not looking at selling properties to reduce debt, but are concerned about increasing interest costs. Reads to me like selling to a bigger company with a lower debt cost solves all problems

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@vanckzhu How do you read the change of control provision for the prefs? They describe it in the prospectus as a “right”, which to me means pref holders could decline the right and either receive par plus accrued or transfer to the new parent?

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@Dutch_Book If she likes doing puzzles or building blocks, my daughter was a huge fan of Lego Friends, it’s Legos but for younger girls. She also liked volume, 20 bath bombs for $20, art sets for kids from hobby lobby/michael’s, etc.

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@orrdavid Sotherly Hotels has 3 classes of prefs. $sohob $sohoo and $sohon all three yield about 10% plus have 10 accrued but unpaid dividends still owed to prefs that have to be paid before divs to common can be restarted

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@vanckzhu Any thoughts here with the prefs around $20? Seems like the outlook for the common might be dimmed a bit, but prefs should still be money good, even if catch-up will take longer?

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@Catahoula_Value @stoked_on_waves @DarkfireCapital @mjohn707 I would add that $SBNC has said even though the entire securities book is available for sale, they have no intention on selling the underwater bonds.

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@orrdavid As of 12-31-22, they only had $1.4 million left on the authorization, but it expired 3-31-23. No update yet on new one

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@DarkfireCapital This one is so illiquid, I don’t think you can assume rational price discovery for it. Just have to wait until someone puts the value up in lights, or the Holding family decides to consolidate to capture part of the glaring discount

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@vanckzhu @sjoerds78 They briefly mentioned it again on the call today that they want to reduce the unpaid preferred dividends, but they didn’t bring up the repayment timing this time. At today’s prices and assuming 2 divs per quarter, pretty easy to underwrite 20% annual returns for next 2 years

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@orrdavid Other than common ownership between $SBNC and $FCNCA from the Holding family. $fcncb is actually 16 votes per share rather than 1 with $fcnca but the B shares are super illiquid

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@orrdavid Agree that $SBNC is cheap here - entire investment book is available for sale, so it’s all marked to market. They stated they have no intention of selling any though, and capital ratios still strong. Have not done the work on $fcnca in a while, no view there 1/2

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@orrdavid @DarkfireCapital Sorry, market cap of $412 million based on 12-31-22 share count and 3-28-23 closing price

[Marshall Fraser @MarshallFraser]

@orrdavid @DarkfireCapital $SBNC annual report dropped today. They own 191,963 shares of $fcnca 22,619 shares of $fcncb and 198,945 shares of First Citizens preferred. Totals up to about $198 million in First Citizens equity vs $sbnc market cap of $473 million as of today’s close