Mateesh

Trader

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@DirectorEldris @leevalueroach That would be some $100 trillion of market cap. What stuff are you smoking?

[Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson]

This is biblical.

A woman in her eighties. Ten years into Alzheimer's. Hadn't spoken a full sentence in five years.

Takes one, 5 gram dose of psilocybin.

She slept 19 hours and woke up and spoke for hours about her life, recognized family and held real conversations. She regained bladder control after five years, walked on her own. and dressed herself. Gains held for weeks.

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@CAronitpereira @NeeravMehta3 The remaining 1% crowd means 1.4 crore investors, nothing to sneeze about.

[Josiah Novak @josiahfitness]

I don’t know who needs to hear this today, but if you’re a successful guy with a family…

Get your bloodwork done every 6 months, get a Vo2 max test, make sure you’re getting a Dexa Scan once a year and keep your body fat under 20%

Lift weights 3-4 times per week. Go on a 20-30 minute walk everyday

You worked hard to reach a level most never do, don’t throw it away because you ignored your health

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@WalterMenezes @saketh1998 Please share specific mistakes in the tweet rather than making blanket statements

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@VivekKu1604 @plot_twistttt Actually you're ignoring the truth. Most of the country is wrecked and thus people have built pockets for themselves to escape from the truth.

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

Documenting the headwinds I now see for AI.

It won't seem like it, but I love AI and am long-term positive. But when "math doesn't math" I take note.

1. The core thesis for foundation model lab investment has been high upfront investment made worthwhile by significant long-term profits.

2. These are capital intensive businesses and the compute commitments are very high relative to revenue and require strong growth over long time periods. The "leverage" (commitments versus revenue) is extremely high.

3. The fundamentals are not as positive as they previously were:
• Input costs are higher (commodities, chips, power)
• Interest rates are higher
• Competition is more intense
• Scaling Laws are now problematic: exponential costs/power cannot continue

4. Forecasting compute spend is challenging and high risk due to (a) revenue uncertainty and (b) algorithm uncertainty

5. Revenue growth appears to be slowing. The technology is valuable, but ROI is proving to be more expensive and take longer than anticipated.

6. The future is likely "different models for different use cases" with the lower end of the market being highly competitive.

7. Core use cases such as agentic software engineering are likely to need approaches beyond next-token prediction. They are Σ₂ᴾ complexity problems requiring multi-objective optimization and likely a combination of Transformers and other methods.

8. Current forecasts in memory makers are built largely on quadratic attention. That will not persist: we are already seeing work from DeepSeek, Minimax and Nvidia that can cut RAM needs by 80% or more.

9. This means semiconductor valuations are substantially overinflated and will go through the traditional glut versus shortage cycle.

10. For foundation model providers: lower costs with competitive differentiation is good. However, lower costs with a lack of differentiation would mean lower revenues. This makes it harder to (a) service commitments and (b) pay back investors.

11. Leverage is substantially higher than in previous cycles, evidenced by leveraged ETFs, call option activity and margin loans. Korea is particularly susceptible.

12. 0DTE options create a profile that has stronger parallels to portfolio insurance and 1987 than any other point I can remember.

13. The combination of exponential increases in call activity coupled with the ties of semiconductors to structured products means there is a non-trivial systemic risk to the financial system.

14. Implied earnings growth rates are inconsistent with other periods in history.

15. Macroeconomically we cannot and should not fund exponential cost increases. History has shown us repeatedly that there are better ways (see Quick Sort and Simplex).

16. Significant supply is hitting the market via IPOs.

––

Taken together: costs and competition are increasing while revenue growth is likely slowing. Valuations are fragile and prone to technology disruptions that are already here. Systemic financial market risk is extremely high.

[Alexander @alexanderrX_]

my biggest regret in life is deadlifting.

i herniated a disc pulling 200kg. i had done it before, but that day felt off and i still went for it like an idiot. by 21, i was basically crippled. 8 years of rehab later and i’m maybe back to 40% of the back strength i had before.

if you deadlift, leave your ego at the door. low weight, more volume, clean reps. once you mess your back up, there is no glory. just regret.

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@randall_danger @DiggingInTheDi1 @johnkonrad Imagine thinking an entire race is inferior because of a few bad apples.

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@DiggingInTheDi1 @johnkonrad Imagine how incompetent you have to be to lose jobs to the laziest race in the world.

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@RajeshTNadu @su_raag @Navayan House? Books? Years of education expenses and fees? Food and nutrition? Safe and hygienic environment?

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

Every day, try to develop greater clarity about setups. process, entries, exits, stops, sizing, timeframes, and catalysts.

The more you reorganize the knowledge and spend time understanding the setup, the easier it will be to implement.

This requires real dedication to repeatedly revisit a setup, reclarify, and reset your mind.

When you immerse yourself in this, one day it clicks, and then suddenly everything starts working.

Through more reflection and revisiting the same idea, the idea becomes part of you.

And whenever we engage in such purposeful mind-clarity efforts in any field, it always results in significant money.

Depth creates wealth.

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@sahilbhadviya And you conveniently picked near the Covid low. Hypocrisy!

[David Hines @hradzka]

Best tip I’ve found for getting back to sleep when you wake up in the middle of the night is something I saw on Japanese twitter: close your eyes and look left and right repeatedly, faking REM; your brain will go “oh yeah right we’re supposed to be asleep when we’re doing that”

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@DealsDhamaka @Teluguabbayi_29 Bad advice. Trading should be learned on small accounts. Learning trading costs real money. The size of your losses will be much bigger if you start with larger capital. Ideally you should learn the skill on smaller size and then scale up gradually only after you know your game.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Growing into the winning relationship

Holding period and pyramiding/doubling down into a winner or loser have the biggest impact for the aspired master trader.

These are not small variables. For the trader who aspires to the top, they are the only true variables.

People like to begin with entries. Fine. Entries matter. But the first real work is finding the pockets of edge: small caps, mid caps, large caps, each one becoming over time a liquidity-driven sliding scale forcing the growing trader to shift into a new version of himself. What worked at one size stops working at another. What looked like skill at one level becomes noise at the next.

Then comes compounding. Usually through an R system, whether you fully systematize it or compound naturally. Directly or indirectly, you are always measuring risk. You are always deciding how much of yourself to put behind the idea.

Then comes noise reduction.

Seeing less. Focusing more. Finding structure inside chaos. Learning what not to look at. Learning what not to care about. Putting structural elements (like scanners, prep, automated systems) in place. This is harder than people think, because most traders are not defeated by what they miss. They are defeated by what they cannot stop seeing.

Only after that do you earn the right to size exponentially.

Adding to winners. Averaging in. Pressing when the trade improves. Holding when the easy exit appears. Accepting that win rate and risk/reward live on a sliding scale, and that every serious trader must eventually decide where he belongs on it.

At the end, the game becomes judgment.

Can you grade the setup as it moves from bucket to bucket? Can you recognize when a B has become an A, when an A has become an A++, or when the thing you thought was elite was only dressed that way for a few candles?

This is most true in deep value. It is also true in parabolic shorts. The opportunity does not arrive fully formed. It reveals itself. Then your sizing and your holding period must adjust to the reality in front of you.

So here is the question.

Should you wait for the A++ entry when the A is already available?

Or would you rather miss the first entry so you can pyramid with greater certainty once the trade begins to prove itself?

There is no free answer. There is only the trade-off you can actually live with.

Win rates are easy to manipulate. You can raise them by taking profits too early, sizing too small, avoiding discomfort, and calling cowardice discipline.

But risk/reward and dynamic sizing are where the real alpha hides.

That is where the market wizardry is.

Not in being right often. In being enormous when it matters and pushing beyond, by appreciating the power of the true outliers and the range they offer as they reverse (or continue for some breakout strategies).

And that privilege is not given cheaply. The ability to push, to pyramid, to become your biggest in the best opportunities, comes only after mastering every earlier step.

You do not get to size like a monster because you are excited.

You get to size because you have earned precision. You have earned conviction. You have lived through dozens of account pullbacks, recoveries, new highs, false dawns, and near-breaks in belief.

Only then can you tolerate a smaller win rate in exchange for a huge winning tail.

Only then can you hold the trade long enough for the rare thing to pay you.

That part is not technique.

That part is earned, respect, held on to like a religion.

At the end all that remains is the tail, the tail of the alpha that blows off into account growth.

Are you truly able to get to that last stage only depends on building the strong foundation needed to support the monument that might live on in history.

[Millie Marconi @MillieMarconnni]

Every Olympic endurance coach in the world now tapes their athletes' mouths shut at night because a Swedish lab proved in 1995 that the nose produces a gas the mouth cannot, and that single gas determines whether your blood absorbs 100% of the oxygen you inhale or only 82%.

The gas is nitric oxide.

The lab was the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm. The discovery was published in Nature Medicine that same year, and it quietly rewrote everything respiratory physiology thought it knew about why humans have a nose in the first place.

Here is what they actually found.

The empty air-filled cavities inside your skull, the ones anatomy textbooks called evolutionary leftovers for a hundred years, are not empty and not useless.

The lining of those sinuses contains an enzyme called inducible nitric oxide synthase. It runs continuously. It produces large amounts of nitric oxide gas. That gas sits in your nasal cavity at concentrations hundreds of times higher than anywhere else in your body.

The Karolinska team measured it. Air leaving the nose contains roughly 56 parts per billion of nitric oxide. Air leaving the mouth contains 14. Air leaving the trachea, below both, contains 6. The nose is the only factory.

Then they ran the experiment that changed sports medicine.

When you inhale through your nose, that nitric oxide rides the airstream down into your lungs. It hits the small blood vessels surrounding your alveoli and forces them to dilate.

More blood flows past more oxygen, and more oxygen crosses into your bloodstream. The exact figure they measured was an 18% increase in arterial oxygen uptake compared to mouth breathing the same air.

Same lungs. Same oxygen in the room. Same heart rate. One nostril of difference and your blood is carrying nearly a fifth more fuel.

The reverse is what should haunt anyone who mouth breathes at night.

Mouth breathing bypasses the sinuses entirely. The nitric oxide never enters the lungs. Pulmonary blood vessels stay constricted. Less oxygen crosses into the blood.

The heart has to pump harder to deliver the same oxygen to the same tissues. A 2008 review in the Anatomical Record showed mouth breathers develop measurably higher pulmonary artery pressure over time, simply because the gas designed to lower it never arrives.

There is a second finding most people miss.

Nitric oxide is antimicrobial. It directly inhibits the replication of viruses and bacteria in the upper airway. During the COVID pandemic, researchers in the European Journal of Pharmacology proposed that habitual mouth breathers were getting hit harder partly because they had bypassed the body's first chemical line of defense. The nose was not just a filter.

It was a chemical weapons factory aimed at every pathogen trying to reach the lungs.

The implication is the part that should change how you sleep tonight.

Your body built a free 18% oxygen upgrade and a free antiviral system into the same organ. Both only activate when air passes through your nose. Both shut off the moment your mouth opens.

Half the adult population sleeps with their mouth open and has no idea they are running their lungs at 82% capacity for a third of their life.

The fix costs nothing. A strip of tape across the lips at night. That is the entire intervention.

The most expensive thing in human performance is the oxygen you already paid for and never absorbed.

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

And then there are people on this app who think that travelling is better than this.

[Eulalia @guang52606]

91岁太奶展示哄睡大法。
太奶：从你爷到你爹，我还治不了你了

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@CFlanders7 This is not trading. This is trading as defined by you. If you trade on such large time frames, of course you have to wait. But that's not true for trading in general, isn't it? Because there are people making money off of all sorts of lower timeframes as well.

[Mateesh @MateeshB]

@kmeanskaran Lutyens -> Prabhat road