NBA & NFL Recap
3 STRAIGHT SWEEPS💵💵
54-19 NBA RUN(74%)📈📈
-Andrew Nembhard under 18.5 Points(-115 Bet 365)✅
-Kenneth Gainwell under 28.5 Rush Yards(-114 FD)✅
-Kawhi Leonard under 6.5 Rebounds(-110 DK)✅(VIP)
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NBA Finals Best Bet
Josh Hart o18.5 PR(-120 Fanatics)
Collab with @PropKitchen & @MikeL0cks
We like this spot for Hart, who is coming off his best performance of the series with 25 PR in 35 minutes. San Antonio spent the first two games comfortable helping off him and clogging the paint while Hart scored just 3 combined points. In Game 3, he made them pay with 16 points on 6-of-10 shooting and 4-of-7 from three.
That creates a real dilemma for the Spurs in Game 4. If they keep leaving him open, Hart can continue getting clean rhythm looks from three. If they close out harder, that opens up what he does best: pump-fake, attack a recovering defender, get downhill, crash the glass, and turn broken possessions into extra points.
Hart has also been much better playing at MSG this season👇
📈 Home: 12.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 43.8 3P%, 82.4 FT% & 62.9 TS%
📉 Road: 11.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 40.5 3P%, 59.6 FT% & 59.4 TS%
With 27+ minutes at home, Hart has gone over this line in 4/4 games against the Spurs while averaging 22.5 PR. He is trusted in these competitive high-stakes games, and when he gets 30+ minutes with at least 7 FGA, he has cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 & in in 87% of home games in that split
averaging 25.5 PR.
Hart’s rebounding role is built for this matchup. Through the first 3 games of this series, he is averaging 10 rebounds on 15 rebound chances. If you remove the 18-minute Game 2, that jumps to 12 RPG. He does not need to win center-on-center battles to clear this number. He rebounds from the wing, chases long misses, crashes from the corners, and immediately turns boards into transition chances.
The Spurs have played at the third-highest pace this postseason, which gives Hart more possessions, more rebound chances, and more transition opportunities. With San Antonio focused on Brunson, Towns, and Anunoby, Hart should keep finding open space as a cutter, shooter, and weak-side rebounder.
Overall, Hart has multiple paths to clear this line. He just showed he can punish the Spurs for leaving him open, his home splits are stronger, his rebounding volume has been elite, and his minutes should be secure in Game 4. With his motor, MSG production, and ability to stack rebounds, we expect him to go over this line!
NBA Best Bet
Donovan Mitchell o26.5 Points(-111 DK)
Loving Spida here for a bounce back game after going under this line in 2 straight road games against the Raptors.
Spida has been a DOG at home this season and has KILLED the Raptors at home this season, including the playoffs. Spida has gone over this line in all 3/3 home games versus the Raptors this season, averaging 31 PPG in that span with him recording 30+ points in ALL 3/3 games.
Spida has seen great volume in those 3 games, averaging 20.3 FGA & 8.3 FTA per game and when seeing just 15+ FGA and 4+ FTA at home this season, Spida is over this line in 23/28 home games and when seeing 19+ FGA and 6+ FTA, he’s over this line in 13/14 home games this season.
Spida scores 27% of his points as the PnR ball handler, where the Raptors rank 6th WORST defensively on the season and the 3rd WORST defensively in the playoffs. Spida scores another combined 38% of his points from free throws, spot up and isolation, where the Raptors rank bottom 10 defensively in all 3 during the regular season.
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NBA Best Bet
Donovan Mitchell o26.5 Points(-111 DK)
Loving Spida here for a bounce back game after going under this line in 2 straight road games against the Raptors.
Spida has been a DOG at home this season and has KILLED the Raptors at home this season, including the playoffs. Spida has gone over this line in all 3/3 home games versus the Raptors this season, averaging 31 PPG in that span with him recording 30+ points in ALL 3/3 games.
Spida has seen great volume in those 3 games, averaging 20.3 FGA & 8.3 FTA per game and when seeing just 15+ FGA and 4+ FTA at home this season, Spida is over this line in 23/28 home games and when seeing 19+ FGA and 6+ FTA, he’s over this line in 13/14 home games this season.
Spida scores 27% of his points as the PnR ball handler, where the Raptors rank 6th WORST defensively on the season and the 3rd WORST defensively in the playoffs. Spida scores another combined 38% of his points from free throws, spot up and isolation, where the Raptors rank bottom 10 defensively in all 3 during the regular season.
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Brandon Miller o19.5 Points✅
❤️ if you tailed
Even with Miller only playing 9 minutes in the first half, he comes through with a huge 18 point second half for us to cash🤌🏻🤌🏻
Cash the 20.5 bump aswell🤝🤝
NBA Play-In Best Bet
Brandon Miller o19.5 Points(-125 B365)
The Heat allow the 8th MOST points to SFs, Miller has gone over this line in 11/14 home games this season against bottom 10 SFs when seeing 20+ minutes & when seeing 30+ minutes, he’s over this line in 11/12 games.
Miller get’s a combined 72% of his shots from C&S and pull up, where the Heat rank 2nd WORST and 4th WORST defensively over the last 15 games.
Miller scores 47% of his points from ATB 3’s and another 19% from the paint(non-RA), where the Heat rank 8th WORST and 4th WORST defensively.
I’m expecting a ton of minutes for Miller here, when seeing 30+ minutes at home he is over this line in 18/24 games this season and when seeing 35+ minutes he is over this line in 6/7 home games this season.
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NBA Play-In Best Bet
Brandon Miller o19.5 Points(-125 B365)
The Heat allow the 8th MOST points to SFs, Miller has gone over this line in 11/14 home games this season against bottom 10 SFs when seeing 20+ minutes & when seeing 30+ minutes, he’s over this line in 11/12 games.
Miller get’s a combined 72% of his shots from C&S and pull up, where the Heat rank 2nd WORST and 4th WORST defensively over the last 15 games.
Miller scores 47% of his points from ATB 3’s and another 19% from the paint(non-RA), where the Heat rank 8th WORST and 4th WORST defensively.
I’m expecting a ton of minutes for Miller here, when seeing 30+ minutes at home he is over this line in 18/24 games this season and when seeing 35+ minutes he is over this line in 6/7 home games this season.
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NBA Play-In Best Bet
Brandon Miller o19.5 Points(-125 B365)
The Heat allow the 8th MOST points to SFs, Miller has gone over this line in 11/14 home games this season against bottom 10 SFs when seeing 20+ minutes & when seeing 30+ minutes, he’s over this line in 11/12 games.
Miller get’s a combined 72% of his shots from C&S and pull up, where the Heat rank 2nd WORST and 4th WORST defensively over the last 15 games.
Miller scores 47% of his points from ATB 3’s and another 19% from the paint(non-RA), where the Heat rank 8th WORST and 4th WORST defensively.
I’m expecting a ton of minutes for Miller here, when seeing 30+ minutes at home he is over this line in 18/24 games this season and when seeing 35+ minutes he is over this line in 6/7 home games this season.
📊@propsmadness
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NBA Play-In Best Bet
Mark Williams o11.5 PA(-119 DK)
Williams is over this line in 2/3 games versus the Blazers this season, recording 16,25 and 6 PR with his one under coming in a game where he saw only 15 minutes.
Williams has seen ELITE volume versus the Blazers this season with him seeing 9,14 and 8 FGA this season, when seeing 7+ FGA he is over this line in 25/30 games this season, averaging 17 PA in that span. When seeing 7+ FGA, 1+ potential assists and 20+ minutes, Williams is over this line in 19/22 games this season.
We have seen the last 10/14 centers go over their PA lines versus the Blazers with 12/14 of them recording 12+ PA.
The Blazers are allowing the 4th MOST points and 6th MOST assists to opposing centers this season. Williams has gone over this line in 10/12 games this season when facing bottom 10 center PA defenses WITH Brooks and Booker both healthy.
WITH Brooks, Booker and Green all ACTIVE and seeing 20+ minutes, Williams is over this line in 6/7 games this season.
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NBA Play-In Best Bet
Mark Williams o11.5 PA(-119 DK)
Williams is over this line in 2/3 games versus the Blazers this season, recording 16,25 and 6 PR with his one under coming in a game where he saw only 15 minutes.
Williams has seen ELITE volume versus the Blazers this season with him seeing 9,14 and 8 FGA this season, when seeing 7+ FGA he is over this line in 25/30 games this season, averaging 17 PA in that span. When seeing 7+ FGA, 1+ potential assists and 20+ minutes, Williams is over this line in 19/22 games this season.
We have seen the last 10/14 centers go over their PA lines versus the Blazers with 12/14 of them recording 12+ PA.
The Blazers are allowing the 4th MOST points and 6th MOST assists to opposing centers this season. Williams has gone over this line in 10/12 games this season when facing bottom 10 center PA defenses WITH Brooks and Booker both healthy.
WITH Brooks, Booker and Green all ACTIVE and seeing 20+ minutes, Williams is over this line in 6/7 games this season.
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NBA Best Bet
Scottie Barnes o16.5 Points(-112 B365)
Scottie has been a DOG against fast paced matchups this season and now he get’s a matchup against the Heat that play at the FASTEST pace in the entire league.
Scottie has gone over this line in 10/12 home games this season against top 10 teams in pace, including going over in 8/9 WITH Ingram, RJ and Quickley.
The Heat are allowing the 8th MOST points to PFs this season and Scottie is over this line in 15/19 home games this season when facing bottom 15 PF defenses.
Scottie scores 68% of his points in the paint and the Heat are allowing the 10th MOST paint points this season and the 9th MOST paint points over the last 15 games. Scottie has gone over this line in 17/22 home games this season against bottom 17 paint defenses and in 9/10 games against bottom 12 paint defenses WITH RJ and Ingram.
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NBA Best Bet
Scottie Barnes o16.5 Points(-112 B365)
Scottie has been a DOG against fast paced matchups this season and now he get’s a matchup against the Heat that play at the FASTEST pace in the entire league.
Scottie has gone over this line in 10/12 home games this season against top 10 teams in pace, including going over in 8/9 WITH Ingram, RJ and Quickley.
The Heat are allowing the 8th MOST points to PFs this season and Scottie is over this line in 15/19 home games this season when facing bottom 15 PF defenses.
Scottie scores 68% of his points in the paint and the Heat are allowing the 10th MOST paint points this season and the 9th MOST paint points over the last 15 games. Scottie has gone over this line in 17/22 home games this season against bottom 17 paint defenses and in 9/10 games against bottom 12 paint defenses WITH RJ and Ingram.
📊@propsmadness
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