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TNF DISH OF THE DAY ๐งโ๐ณ
๐ NFL Prop #1 (11/12)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ค ๐๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ ๐.๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ
Cooked w/ @hotshotfantasy ๐ค
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- Nabers continues to be the focal point of the Giants passing offense, averaging 6.7 receptions on 9.9 targets per game this season. Heโs cleared this line in 5/8 games (62.5%) while commanding an impressive 30% target share, leading all Giants WRs by a wide margin. Over his last 3 games, that target share has increased to 33.3%, with Nabers drawing 33 targets. The volume is exactly what we want when backing a receptions prop.
- The matchup against Washington is one of the best spots for a high-volume WR. The Commanders rank 31st in receptions allowed to opposing WRs, surrendering 13.3 catches per game compared to the league average of 11.4. They also allow approximately 20 WR targets per game and rank 23rd defending man coverage. Nabers has cleared this line in 9/10 games against bottom-half defenses against man coverage.
High-target-share WRs against Washington this season ๐
โ
Puka Nacua: 14 Receptions
โ
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 10 Receptions
โ
CeeDee Lamb: 8 Receptions
- Nabers himself recorded 11 receptions on 20 targets against Washington on October 11 earlier this season. Heโs now cleared this line in 3/4 career meetings with the Commanders, averaging 8.8 receptions and 15.3 targets per game. Washington has consistently struggled to contain him, and his role in this offense gives us another reason to like his opportunities tonight.
- Another encouraging factor is his chemistry with J.J. McCarthy, catching 15/20 targets (75%) from him this season. With McCarthy under center, Nabers has cleared this line in 3/4 games, averaging 8.8 receptions.
- The target share and matchup are both ideal for Nabers, who has recorded 6+ catches in 10 of his last 11 games against bottom-16 defenses in receptions allowed when receiving at least 6 targets, averaging 7.9 receptions in that span.
- There is some weather risk here, with rain and wind gusts approaching 20 MPH forecasted around game time. These conditions could encourage more high-percentage, short-yardage throws rather than pushing the ball downfield, creating additional opportunities for Nabers to make catches and generate YAC. While the weather could also reduce overall passing volume, we prefer targeting his receptions rather than relying on explosive downfield plays.
- Overall, weโre getting a favorable matchup for a WR who consistently commands a massive share of his teamโs passing opportunities. With the way Washington has defended high-volume receivers and Nabersโ history against this defense, we like him to get involved early and often. Give us 6 catches for Nabers on TNF!
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NFL Collab w/ @PropKitchen ๐
Malik Nabers o5.5 receptions (-115 NoVig)
๐: @PropKitchen
Nabers continues to be the focal point of the Giants passing offense, averaging 6.7 receptions on 9.9 targets per game this season. Heโs cleared this line in 5/8 games (62.5%) and is commanding an impressive 30% target share, leading all Giants WRs by a wide margin. Over his L3 games, that target share has increased to 33.3%, with Nabers drawing 33 targets. The volume is exactly what we want when backing a receptions prop.
The matchup against Washington is one of the best spots for a high-volume WR. The Commanders rank 31st in receptions allowed to opposing WRs, surrendering 13.3 catches per game compared to the league average of 11.4. They also allow approximately 20 WR targets per game and rank 23rd defending man coverage. Nabers is over this line in 9/10 games against bottom half of the league defenses against Man coverage.
High Target Share WRs vs Commanders ๐
โ
Puka Nacua: 14 Receptions
โ
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 10 Receptions
โ
CeeDee Lamb: 8 Receptions
Nabers himself recorded 11 receptions on 20 targets against Washington on October 11 earlier this season. Heโs now cleared this line in 3/4 career meetings with the Commanders, averaging 8.8 receptions and 15.3 targets per game. Washington has consistently struggled to contain him, and his role in this offense gives us another reason to like his opportunities tonight.
Another encouraging factor is his chemistry with J.J. McCarthy, catching 15/20 targets (75%) from him this season. With McCarthy under center, Nabers has cleared this line in 3/4 games, averaging 8.8 receptions.
The target share & matchup are both very ideal for Nabers who has 6+ catches in 10 of his last 11 games against bottom 16 defenses in receptions allowed when receiving at least 6 targets, averaging 7.9 receptions in that span.
Their is weather risk here as there is rain and wind gusts approaching 20 MPH forecasted around game time & conditions could encourage more high-percentage, short-yardage throws rather than pushing the ball downfield, creating additional opportunities for Nabers to make catches and generate YAC. While the weather could also reduce overall passing volume, I prefer targeting his receptions rather than relying on explosive downfield plays.
Overall, weโre getting a favorable matchup for a WR who consistently commands a massive share of his teamโs passing opportunities. With the way Washington has defended high-volume receivers and Nabers history against this defense, we like him to get involved early and often. Give us 6 catches for Nabers on TNF!
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NBA Tuesday Prop Menu ๐
$50 to someone who LIKES if we go 4-0 โฌ๏ธ
๐ฝ๏ธ Jaylen Brown o31.5 PRA
๐ฝ๏ธ Giannis Antetokounmpo o11.5 Rebounds
๐ฝ๏ธ Darius Garland o6.5 Assists
๐ฝ๏ธ Wendell Carter Jr. o8.5 Rebounds
โค๏ธ IF TAILING ANY!
Decided to use @LVLupPropsApp anytime TD Cheatsheet again to craft an Underdog lotto again! Letโs see if Deebo plays this week ๐
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NFL Collab w/@balls_out_bets ๐
Josh Allen o34.5 Longest Pass Completio (-118 DK)
๐: @Balls_out_bets
๐ฅJosh Allen is 7 for 7 going over his longest completion on the season. The graph of recent games looks great but thats not why I like this spot.
๐ฅIt has been clear since the preseason that Joe Brady has taken a somewhat different approach to calling the offense this season. Maybe the change is due to McDermott not running the ship or maybe they realize the potential they're missing out on. Regardless, the Bills have improved their pass game by simply throwing the ball downfield. Since Brady took over calling the plays the Bills became the most run heavy team in football. That still remains but it has opened up the downfield passing and the Bills are capitalizing. The addition of DJ Moore helps from this aspect as well. Allen ranks in the 80th percentile in Average Depth of Target at 9 yards per attempt which increased from his below league average (25th among qualifying QBs) 7.3 yards per attempt. On passes greater than 20 yards he ranks in the 88th percentile. Back to that run game reference, Allen is taking shots down field off play action in the 90th percentile. If they are able to have any success on the ground that will naturally open up the play action game which the Bills run at ones of the highest rates in the league.
๐ฅThe Bad? Minnesota has the best pass defense in the league. They are allowing just 154 yards per game. Brian Flores has this defense cooking often showing 6+ guys at the line of scrimmage leaving opposing QBs scrambling to figure out who is coming and who is dropping into coverage. The Vikings play zone at an extremely high rate of 93% while also blitzing at a league high rate. Well Josh Allen is slightly better against zone coverage although it being a very small edge: Yards per attempt 8.8 vs his avg of 8.7, completion% 67.8 vs 65.9% and a success rate of 46% vs 45.1%. Allen's EPA per attempt vs cover 3 (which MN runs most frequently) ranks in the 77th percentile. MN runs Cover 2, 4 and 6 next most frequently although its only about 25% or less of the time. Allen is league average vs cover 2 and 4 but ranks in the 87th percentile against cover 6. He is going to have to capitalize when he gets the single high safety look in cover 3. I dont anticipate him seeing much man coverage as MN only runs it at a 7% rate and Allen ranks in the 99th percentile vs man coverage from an EPA standpoint.
โOverrated? Yes the Vikings boast the best pass defense in the league. BUT who have they faced?
๐Jordan Love: 21/42 387 yards with a long of 81
๐งCaleb Williams in a monsoon:ย ย 15/26 138 yards with a long of 32
๐ฅBaker Mayfield: 17/34 217 yards long of 40
๐Malik Willis: 9/17 85 yards long of 17
๐Tyler Shough: 16/25 96 yards long of 16
๐Daniel Jones: 13/22 108 yards long of 13
๐Jared Goff: 18/25 176 yards long of 46
๐ฅOf that list, I would only rank 3 who are in the top 3rd of the league. Love, Williams and Goff. And Williams played them in a monsoon. No wonder why they are the top rated pass defense in the league. Now I am not dismissing what the Vikings defense has done because they are legit and you dont get to choose your schedule. But we might get some positive regression here when they have to face the MVP frontrunner.
๐ฅWith the improvement in the Bills downfield passing game and the boom or bust nature of the blitz happy nature of the Vikings defense, I like backing Allen to hit a big pass downfield tonight.
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๐จMonday Night Football Best Bet๐จ
๐คCollab w/ @hotshotfantasy ๐ค
Cashed our best bet yesterday so we have to run it back!
๐1U Josh Allen Longest Completion Over 34.5 Yards (-116 DK)
๐ฅJosh Allen is 7 for 7 going over his longest completion on the season. The graph of recent games looks great but thats not why I like this spot.
๐ฅIt has been clear since the preseason that Joe Brady has taken a somewhat different approach to calling the offense this season. Maybe the change is due to McDermott not running the ship or maybe they realize the potential they're missing out on. Regardless, the Bills have improved their pass game by simply throwing the ball downfield. Since Brady took over calling the plays the Bills became the most run heavy team in football. That still remains but it has opened up the downfield passing and the Bills are capitalizing. The addition of DJ Moore helps from this aspect as well. Allen ranks in the 80th percentile in Average Depth of Target at 9 yards per attempt which increased from his below league average (25th among qualifying QBs) 7.3 yards per attempt. On passes greater than 20 yards he ranks in the 88th percentile. Back to that run game reference, Allen is taking shots down field off play action in the 90th percentile. If they are able to have any success on the ground that will naturally open up the play action game which the Bills run at ones of the highest rates in the league.
๐ฅThe Bad? Minnesota has the best pass defense in the league. They are allowing just 154 yards per game. Brian Flores has this defense cooking often showing 6+ guys at the line of scrimmage leaving opposing QBs scrambling to figure out who is coming and who is dropping into coverage. The Vikings play zone at an extremely high rate of 93% while also blitzing at a league high rate. Well Josh Allen is slightly better against zone coverage although it being a very small edge: Yards per attempt 8.8 vs his avg of 8.7, completion% 67.8 vs 65.9% and a success rate of 46% vs 45.1%. Allen's EPA per attempt vs cover 3 (which MN runs most frequently) ranks in the 77th percentile. MN runs Cover 2, 4 and 6 next most frequently although its only about 25% or less of the time. Allen is league average vs cover 2 and 4 but ranks in the 87th percentile against cover 6. He is going to have to capitalize when he gets the single high safety look in cover 3. I dont anticipate him seeing much man coverage as MN only runs it at a 7% rate and Allen ranks in the 99th percentile vs man coverage from an EPA standpoint.
โOverrated? Yes the Vikings boast the best pass defense in the league. BUT who have they faced?
๐Jordan Love: 21/42 387 yards with a long of 81
๐งCaleb Williams in a monsoon: 15/26 138 yards with a long of 32
๐ฅBaker Mayfield: 17/34 217 yards long of 40
๐Malik Willis: 9/17 85 yards long of 17
๐Tyler Shough: 16/25 96 yards long of 16
๐Daniel Jones: 13/22 108 yards long of 13
๐Jared Goff: 18/25 176 yards long of 46
๐ฅOf that list, I would only rank 3 who are in the top 3rd of the league. Love, Williams and Goff. And Williams played them in a monsoon. No wonder why they are the top rated pass defense in the league. Now I am not dismissing what the Vikings defense has done because they are legit and you dont get to choose your schedule. But we might get some positive regression here when they have to face the MVP frontrunner.
๐ฅWith the improvement in the Bills downfield passing game and the boom or bust nature of the blitz happy nature of the Vikings defense, I like backing Allen to hit a big pass downfield tonight.
Investigate PJ Washington @FBI
TAKE THE UNDER ๐
๐ NFL Sunday Prop #3 (11/8)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ค ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ฌ
Cooked w/ @FrannysPlays ๐ค
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- Purdy has stayed under this line in 5/7 games this season, averaging 30.1 pass attempts per game. Excluding the double-digit loss to the Falcons, heโs stayed under in 5 straight games, including several competitive matchups. That shows he doesnโt necessarily need a blowout to finish below this number.
- San Francisco enters as a 9.5-point favorite, giving us a favorable projected game script for this under. The 49ers already average 127.4 rushing yards per game, and if San Francisco establishes an early lead, we could see Christian McCaffrey and Kaelon Black getting plenty of second-half carries to control the clock.
- The Raiders are allowing the 6th-fewest pass attempts to opposing QBs this season. Against teams ranking in the bottom 10 in pass attempts allowed, Purdy has gone under in 2/12 games, averaging just 27.8 pass attempts.
- The Raiders have one of the NFLโs weakest run defenses, ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed (146.4 YPG) while surrendering 5.1 YPC. This sets up well for Shanahan to establish the ground game with Christian McCaffrey rather than relying heavily on Purdyโs arm.
- The 49ers are also dealing with several injuries at WR, with Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk all ruled OUT. While Demarcus Robinson has been activated, the depleted receiving corps gives Shanahan another reason to lean on the rushing attack.
- With the Raiders struggling to stop the run and San Francisco expected to control this game with a depleted receiving corps, we like Purdy to finish with fewer than 31 passing attempts here!
Best Odds: -106 DraftKings
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TRUST THE VOLUME โผ๏ธ
๐ NFL Sunday Prop #4 (11/8)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐ก๐๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ก ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ
Cooked w/ @hotshotfantasy ๐ค
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
- We like Stevenson in this spot with TreVeyon Henderson officially ruled OUT, leaving him as the clear RB1 in New Englandโs backfield. Last week, under similar circumstances, Stevenson played 76.3% of the offensive snaps and handled 22 total touches. Heโs cleared this line in 7/11 games when playing 70%+ of the offensive snaps, and weโre expecting another heavy workload here.
- The Patriots average 30 rushing attempts per game, ranking 4th-most in the NFL. Stevensonโs rushing attempts line is set at 14.5, meaning if he reaches 15 carries, heโd only need 3.67 YPC to clear this line. Heโs received 13+ carries in three games this season, recording 51, 64 and 82 rushing yards. With Henderson unavailable, Stevenson should have every opportunity to handle the majority of New Englandโs backfield carries.
- The matchup against Green Bay is another reason we like this play. The Packers allow 110.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 15th against the run while facing 28.5 rushing attempts per game. Green Bay has also allowed 10 rushing TDs this season, the 3rd-most in the NFL. Their run defense has been inconsistent, with several opposing RBs putting together productive performances.
Looking at opposing RBsโ rushing yard performances against Green Bay this season ๐
โ
Bijan Robinson: 194 Rush Yds
โ
Jahmyr Gibbs: 116 Rush Yds
โ
Chuba Hubbard: 81 Rush Yds
โ
Bucky Irving: 61 Rush Yds
โ
Aaron Jones: 40 Rush Yds
- The Patriots enter as 3-point home favorites, giving us a favorable potential game script for Stevenson. If New England can establish a lead, we expect Mike Vrabel to lean on the ground game to control possession and keep Green Bayโs offense off the field. With A.J. Brown also ruled OUT and Hunter Henry questionable, thereโs even more reason for New England to rely on its rushing attack.
- Overall, weโre backing Stevensonโs expected workload more than anything here. With the backfield largely to himself and New England in a position to play from ahead, we like his chances of getting the carries needed to clear this line!
Best Odds: -113 FanDuel
๐ Data via @PropsMadness
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NFL Collab w/ @PropKitchen ๐
Rhomondre Stevenson o54.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)
๐: @PropKitchen
We like Stevenson in this spot with TreVeyon Henderson officially ruled OUT, leaving him as the clear RB1 in New Englandโs backfield. Last week under similar circumstances, Stevenson played 76.3% of the offensive snaps and handled 22 total touches. Heโs cleared this line in 7/11 games when playing 70%+ of the offensive snaps, and weโre expecting another heavy workload here.
The Patriots average 30 rushing attempts per game, ranking 4th most in the NFL. Stevensonโs rushing attempts line is set at 14.5, meaning if he reaches 15 carries, heโd only need 3.67 YPC to get over this line. Heโs received 13+ carries in three games this season, recording 51, 64 and 82 rushing yards. With Henderson unavailable, Stevenson should have every opportunity to handle the majority of New Englandโs backfield carries.
The matchup against Green Bay is another reason we like this play. The Packers allow 110.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 15th against the run, while facing 28.5 rushing attempts per game. Green Bay has also allowed 10 rushing TDs this season, the 3rd most in the NFL. Their run defense has been inconsistent, with several opposing RBs putting together productive games.
Looking at opposing RBsโ rushing yard performances against Green Bay this season ๐
โ
Bijan Robinson โ 194 Rush Yds
โ
Jahmyr Gibbs โ 116 Rush Yds
โ
Chuba Hubbard โ 81 Rush Yds
โ
Bucky Irving โ 61 Rush Yds
โ
Aaron Jones โ 40 Rush Yds
The Patriots enter as 3-point home favorites, giving us a favorable potential game script for Stevenson. If New England can establish a lead, we expect Mike Vrabel to lean on the ground game to control possession and keep Green Bayโs offense off the field. With A.J. Brown also ruled out and Hunter Henry questionable, thereโs even more reason for New England to rely on its rushing attack.
Overall, weโre backing Stevensonโs expected workload more than anything here. With the backfield largely to himself and New England in a position to play from ahead, we like his chances of getting the carries needed to go over this line.
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โ
โ
Sacramento Kings +16.5 Spread (-108 Kalshi)
What a game this was and genuinely this came down to the WIRE. I was sweating this out but we cash in the end!
@OnyxOdds parlay for NFL Sunday! Posted these throughout the week and figured why not parlay them?
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NBA/CFB PrizePicks 25x ๐
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NFL Collab w/ @Balls_out_bets ๐
Kenneth Walker o89.5 rushing yards (-123 DK)
๐: @Balls_out_bets
Kansas City is coming off back to back losses and return home to face a bad Jets team as a 10 point favorite. Walker has gone under his rushing total in back to back games. However, those were against the Seahawks and Broncos both on the road against a couple of the best defenses in the league. Denver was torched by Walker in week 1 and made a revenge type effort to shut him down last week. Walker is due to bounce back against a Jets defense that ranks 24th in stuff rate and is allowing a league worst 20.1 carries per game. They rank 21st in yards before contact and they give up 108 yards per game to opposing running backs.
Walker is averaging 20.1 rush attempts per game with a median of 21. His lowest total was against Seattle where he had 14 in a constantly trailing game script. Walker is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt so if he has just an average day, hes surpassing this 90 yard mark. Further, as a 10 point favorite, KC is likely to have a positive rushing game script. Once the Chiefs get a lead, they are known for sitting on the ball and moving the down the field methodically. Expect Walker to be a big part of that.
The Jets defense was just on the field for a billion plays last week against the Raiders in a 38-33 shootout. That takes its toll on a defense even after 6 days of rest. The Raiders second string RB racked up 25 carries for 83 yards. While we're on the topic, here are some of the totals for RBs the Jets have faced:
Mike Washington 83 yards
Ollie Gordon 103 yards
Kyle Monangai 146 yards
Jahmyr Gibbs 99 yards
The RBs that went under are teams that simply cant run the ball:
Patriots RBs: Henderson 31 yards Stevenson 36 yards
Browns: Judkins 44 yards
Packers: Marshawn Lloyd 20 yards
Titans: Tony Pollard 35 yards
I don't take much from the 4 teams that went under their rushing totals as they are teams that are pass heavy and or can't really manufacture a run game.
The teams that can run the ball, all went over their totals.
Walker is due for a big bounce back game at home in a game with a positive game script!
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Iโm bored at work, and I came across @LVLupPropsApp top 4 anytime TD cheat sheet, and what better way than to parlay all 4 today?
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NFL Play ๐
Malik Nabers o69.5 receiving yards (-123 DK)
We all know the Philadelphia Eagles are having a rough season with losing Jalen Hurts for the season, as well as Devonta Smith and Saquon Barkley being banged up for the last month. This also means the Eagles defense is out on the field longer than the offense is, meaning the opposing offense runs the Eagles defense down. The Eagles defense give up the 9th-most receiving yards to opposing WRs, ranking 22nd vs the pass and giving up an average of 244 rec yards per game.
As for Nabers, he has had quite a good season, even losing Jaxon Dart. In 4 straight games, heโs eclipsed over 100 receiving yards and has been getting a high volume of targets, averaging 9.3 so far this season.
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