Matteo Gallone

Markets, macro, thoughts & pseudo-concepets | @ANIMA_SGR

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

I know this picture is getting a lot of negative reactions, but scenes like this have always fascinated me. Even back in college when I first experienced one, the trading floor represented energy, competition, and pure market chaos, all the things that drew me into this world.

Someone commented that it looks like sardines packed in a can. Maybe. But to me, it is so much more than that. You are shoulder to shoulder with people moving billions of dollars based on tick by tick information. Side bets are happening, emotions are running high, winners and losers are being made in real time, and headlines are constantly reshaping decisions. It is intense, it is alive, and if you love the game of trading, it is one of the most electrifying environments you can be in.

Over the years, I have known plenty of traders who left the institutional world to trade their own capital. Almost all of them start alone and then seek community in a group of trading buddies. The constant banter, the flow of ideas, the shared adrenaline when things get wild. Trading can be solitary, but on a floor like that, you are part of something larger.

If this were an accounting department, I would understand the criticism. But for trading, this is exactly where you want to be, in the middle of the action, surrounded by information, and part of a community that lives and breathes the markets.

[Guglielmo Gallone @GuGallone]

Le condoglianze del mondo intero per Francesco. I popoli onorano il Papa della misericordia. Oggi su @oss_romano

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

With #CPI + #PPI inputs data we now track core #PCE at 0.1% m/m from 0.4% in February (we expect an upward revision on February numbers due to a very large upward revision to PPI portfolio management). The y-o-y translation would be 2.5% from 2.7% in February.

[Paweł Skrzypczyński @p_skrzypczynski]

@MatteoGallone_ That pop in Feb PPI portfolio management was massive indeed.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

But if trade diversion, especially out of #China into neighbor manufacturing countries, manages to remain an open solution, price pressures should return to moderation from late H2-25.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

With #CPI + #PPI inputs data we now track core #PCE at 0.1% m/m from 0.4% in February (we expect an upward revision on February numbers due to a very large upward revision to PPI portfolio management). The y-o-y translation would be 2.5% from 2.7% in February.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

But we maintain the view that the inflationary boost resulting from tariffs will be 1) temporary and 2) take time. We think inflation in 2025 could prove quite lumpy, with cost of goods soaring over the summer.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

Save the date!

[Tortuga Think-tank @TortugaThink]

Dieci anni di Tortuga! Da un’idea a un think-tank con 50+ soci.
Il 5 aprile celebriamo il nostro decennale a Milano a fianco di chi ha incrociato la nostra rotta!

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

@CrisisStudent The challenge now is on the likely post-Easter related rebound in April... let'see!😃
In any case, services disinflation trend seems to have resumed, and this is a more than welcome sign not only for the doves.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

However, new (economic-policy related) headwinds have emerged that threaten to upend what had been a precarious equilibrium. Now all our eyes will be on #NFP data for March (out this Friday).

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

Job #openings for February decreased modestly by 194k to 7.57 million, slightly below consensus (7.65 million). The January data were revised up by approximately 20k to show 7.76 million openings.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

Recent #JOLTS data consistently indicate a low-churn labor market characterized by low rates of #hiring, #quits, and layoffs. Overall, The #labor market began 2025 in a state that aligns with the #Fed objectives.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

Based on national CPI figures (France, Spain, Italy) + Germany regional details we forecast March HEADLINE #HICP (to be released on Tuesday, April 1) at 2.20% y/y (in line with current BBG consensus) from 2.3% in Feb and CORE HICP at 2.4% (vs 2.5% BBG consensus) from 2.6% in Feb.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

These tickets offered various discounts for journeys until December 13, 2025. Additionally, the company provided up to 50% discounts on the Bahn Card 25 and Bahn Card 50 subscriptions, which give access to train ticket discounts.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

Based on national CPI figures (France, Spain, Italy) + Germany regional details we forecast March HEADLINE #HICP (to be released on Tuesday, April 1) at 2.20% y/y (in line with current BBG consensus) from 2.3% in Feb and CORE HICP at 2.4% (vs 2.5% BBG consensus) from 2.6% in Feb.

[Matteo Gallone @MatteoGallone_]

In addition, transportation services experienced significant deceleration, likely due to the German railway company selling an additional one million saver fare tickets this March.