Matthew Hedgeman

Technology investor who found freedom in 10–30x equity compounding. Funding my lifestyle and next bets trading index futures.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@Jubal_Hardin @grok Translate this to layman’s terms and give actionable recommendations to immediately benefit from these findings.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@realroseceline This breakdown is outstanding and strengthens my willingness to increase the position of my largest convictions.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@joecarlsonshow Truly happy for you, and appreciate the research you share. Onto the next M!

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

I’ve been convinced about that since childhood.

[Alex Veremeyenko @alex_verem]

The biggest scam humanity has collectively accepted as normal, according to Claude

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

This is exactly why I moved out of Singapore.

Value for money is non-existent especially considering the grumpiness of people you encounter outdoors and its suffocating humidity. It’s just such an unpleasant place to live in, both physically and psychologically.

[Arthur @arthur0x]

This is a ranking that Singapore should not aim to be No.1.

Even on HNW/UNHW level you need to spend 50% to 100% more comparatively to achieve similar quality of life and at one point people will move and spend their time elsewhere.
https://t.co/dJlBRO1DGF

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@rektfencer You’re comparing months with days. It’s misleading.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@KobeissiLetter The odds are simply inversely correlated and speak nothing of actual probability. Price is the ultimate truth.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@SimonHoiberg I thought the very same until I actually lived in Singapore. The people there are unbearable, likely due to the daily stress they encounter. It’s as if they lost all humanity during their pursuit for wealth. But don’t let that deter you from gathering your own impressions.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@3KComeback @dsabs11 Yes, but as others have noted, you may be bagholding a stock that won’t recover for long. Until then, no income from premiums. Unless you become really good at hedging such situations.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

$PGR has taken quite a beating, sliding over 30% from its all-time highs of $292. For an operational powerhouse like Progressive, a drop like this signals structural and macroeconomic anxiety.

Let’s unpack why investors panicked.

▶️ The Tapering Rate Hike Cycle: Following the post-pandemic inflation, insurers hiked premiums to cover the exploding costs of car parts and labor. Progressive was faster than everyone else at raising rates, leading to record profits in 2024. By mid-2025, those rate increases began to taper off.

▶️ Slowing Premium Growth: Investors panicked that as premium hikes normalized, Progressive’s top-line growth would stall while seasonal trends would bite into earnings.

▶️ Executive Transition Uncertainty: Long-time CFO John P. Sauerland is retiring in July 2026, handing the reins to Andrew J. Quigg. Wall Street hates uncertainty, especially regarding the capital management of a 120B giant.

Are the concerns resolved?

Mostly, yes. The fundamentals are actually screaming that the sell-off is overdone. In their recent May 2026 earnings release, Progressive crushed estimates. Net income jumped 36% year-over-year (monthly snapshot). Their combined ratio improved to a stellar 82.1, meaning they only spent $82.10 on claims and expenses for every $100 earned. The broad industry average typically hovers around 95%.

The stock is currently trading at a highly compressed P/E ratio under 10x relative to its near-term earnings growth, making it look heavily oversold.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@Nutri_Science_ Bottom line: No, you didn’t eat healthy.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@iamdisplacement I place all trades on my phone. No problem at all, if based off of informed decisions.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@internpierre Great insight. I had been looking at them and found their messaging both aspirational and woke. This adds a quantitative dimension to my impression.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@bullrungenius @cryptorover So 20% of the world’s foreign exchange reserves are sitting on museum tickets? Believe it or not, it remains the 2nd strongest.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@GrindeOptions https://t.co/Os4fJanXiA

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Mind blowing to many: investing at all time highs has yielded better long term returns than investing on any given day.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@oguzerkan Finally someone talking sense amid all the uncorroborated bro pumps.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@grok @burningw0rds @great_martis Enough said.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@KobeissiLetter Casually swings $500 billion? That’s 10% up and down every day. Let’s not exaggerate.

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@StockSavvyShay At 100 P/S ?

[Matthew Hedgeman @MatthewHedgeman]

@HolySmokas Rarely anyone ever mentions $MRNA but this a platform in the making with multiple hubs able to ramp up vaccines supply on-demand.