Matthew Withy

Carbon, Energy, Urbanism, Bicycles - the rest is noise to me

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@Ember421 @TomMoyerUT @estee_nj Sure, but you could squint a little and decide that batteries are going to be cheap enough to handle daily to weekly variation though.

That will leave a large seasonal balancing challenge.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@Ember421 @mtaylor_nz This report doesn’t attempt to quantify any costs on any real projects. Doesn’t estimate what % of projects get stop/started. No bottom up analysis at all.

It claims a sector wide 25 year drag on productivity that exceeds 1% annually (high side).

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

Should I bother reading this report?

Or from the NZ Herald summary do I already know it’s bullshit?

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@mtaylor_nz Here is the lit review if it deserves the name.

I’m OK with the claim that ‘stop start’ costs extra. But the 8.4B is just a made up number.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@mtaylor_nz 8.6B of the 11ish B is just the mid point between those two numbers.

We are meant to swallow that ‘stop start’ explains that magnitude of change, with basically no evidence offered (aside from a cursory lit review - none of which comes close to carrying the claim)

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

In manufacturing there are shibboleths that are ‘beyond question’ to the point that very few can even explain their purpose.

When you disregard them you sometimes look very smart. More often you discover for yourself why they exist.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

"they cost more than national income has not increased"

Report is riddled with errors like this FWIW.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

Hey Mr Customer. We are complete failures that don’t control our costs.

You should buy our stuff sooner than later. Because think about it, we get worse every year!

Oh and it’s your fault we get worse BTW.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

Today’s advertising message (sorry report) bought to you by our partners.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

Please someone turn up and tell me I’m wrong.

The lions share of the supposed 11.8billion is found by *claiming* (with flimsy or no evidence) that without stop/start the industry would have flatlined productivity.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@SlBrandin Shintechs planned PVC upstream investments at plaquemine probably good for 150MW or so. Between chlor-alkali process and ancillary loads for steam cracker and vinyl chloride monomer plants.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@TomMoyerUT @estee_nj Yeah fair. It’s not 30%. I’ll have to find a higher res data source to look at summer/winter ratio trends.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@TomMoyerUT But without the red tape, subsidies might flow primarily to stimulating new supply rather than enriching incumbents through elevated margins. Can’t have that.

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@Ember421 @NiyerEnergy @AukeHoekstra @mzjacobson It would be fun to negotiate a supply agreement with those guys.

Them: deliver me the product 11 of 12 months per year.

Me: OK but I choose which 11 at my absolute discretion, no notice period or justification.

Them: OK

Me: 💰💰💰💰

[Matthew Withy @MatthewWithy]

@Ember421 @NiyerEnergy @AukeHoekstra @mzjacobson To our left observe the 100%WWS heretics. To our right observe the ‘duplicate system’ heretics.

Could it be they are both 90% right* by their own metrics.

*aka wrong