Matthias Ross Buzas

Interested in the issues that shape our 🌎 Current: Country Risk @Scotiabank Former: GoC 🇨🇦 @RBC @OurCommons Alum: @uOttawa, @AlgonquinColleg

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

👀
Global shipping industry group makes its first public intervention since it was founded 60 years ago, to warn that the rules governing global shipping are breaking down.
"Without maritime trade... the global economy as we know it would come to a sudden halt".

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.

"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left."

"Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination."

"Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets."

"If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit."

https://t.co/Xe8Vi38WiI

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

What a joke.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

My latest contribution to @TheDispatch is a primer on why the Iran War and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the potential to spiral further into by far the biggest energy shock in history.

And markets are sleepwalking into it.
https://t.co/PkD4v6pgC8

[UEFA Champions League @ChampionsLeague]

If football is art, this is a masterpiece 🖼️

#UCL

[Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 @MikePMoffatt]

I honestly thought I was hallucinating when I heard the Housing Minister say in QP "Well, it's no surprise Canadians are challenged with buying homes right now when there is a war in the Middle East."

I was not. This was a thing that was said.

[Responsible Statecraft @RStatecraft]

The launch of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could lead to economic and financial disruptions that ripple across the countries of the Global South with devastating effects, writes @RajaKorman
https://t.co/KaUSgiuCau

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

*KUWAIT CUTS OIL PRODUCTION AT SOME OIL FIELDS: WSJ
*KUWAIT CUTS OIL AFTER RUNNING OUT OF ROOM TO STORE CRUDE: WSJ

Every day this goes on it becomes durably trickier to restart the system when it does eventually end.

[Bruno Maçães @MacaesBruno]

Humble pie has been ordered

[Matthias Ross Buzas @MatthiasBuzas]

@MrNibbyDibs @johnarnold @jwill31317 Premiums have already risen as reported yesterday.

[Matthias Ross Buzas @MatthiasBuzas]

@kofinas My view is that risk very much exists and is elevated, but a better parallel is the inter war period when there was a struggle between internationalism/balance of power, weaker institutions, & rapid change in finance, culture & tech. Underpinned by inequality & growing populism.

[Matthias Ross Buzas @MatthiasBuzas]

@kofinas Demetri, with respect, my reply was just a counter to comparing today’s conditions with the lead up to 1914. I didn’t suggest that substantial risk doesn’t exist today just because I see differences in the parallel. Saying I am wedded to this or too certain in my views is unfair.

[Matthias Ross Buzas @MatthiasBuzas]

@kofinas People argue there is a new "Axis of Evil”but they are opportunistically aligned and largely absent mutual defence treaties. World war suggests involvement of multiple parties on each side. Its unclear which parties would certainly join a conflict against a western coalition.

[Matthias Ross Buzas @MatthiasBuzas]

@kofinas 3. On alliances, perhaps misunderstood. Obv. NATO is more defined, my point is that there is no defined opposition coalition today, bound by real or implied mutual defence treaties. The Dual Alliance was counterbalanced by the Franco-Russo alliance and later the Triple Entente.

[Matthias Ross Buzas @MatthiasBuzas]

@policytensor Nothing Ever Happens™️. Also, maximum pressure doesn’t mean full scale conflict is certain. Recent reporting suggested the admin is seeking a resolution in 🇺🇦 by April to focus on mid-terms(Goodluck). If that’s the priority, hard to imagine risking $100 oil despite the buildup.

[Heather Exner-Pirot @ExnerPirot]

Export diversification so far has been largely accounted by more Newfoundland crude oil shipments to Europe, Alberta crude oil shipments to China, and Ontario gold shipments to UK.
About 2/3 of NFLD oil now goes to Europe.