Maximus

[Phil McAlister @phil_mcalister]

A few very obvious points on Mamdani's grocery stores:

1. The supply of the discounted groceries will run out on day 1, and every day there is a new shipment. This is basic econ 101.

2. This means only the people who are lucky enough or fast enough will get these discounted groceries. Expect to see the city ration these groceries in some other way. By income, or neighborhood or some lottery system.

3. Grocery margins are notoriously low as it is (like 2-3%). These stores will lose a bunch of money selling 30% below market, or they'll sell so little it will be insignificant.

4. There is absolutely zero chance that government bureaucrats can source these products from global supply chains as efficiently as Walmart, or Meier, or Whole Foods, whose survival depends on it. Their costs will be far higher (unless they use government bludgeon to force distributors to sell to them at lower prices).

5. It's actually an incredible triumph of capitalism that you can get a pound of bananas that were shipped to your neighborhood from Equador for like 60 cents, or fresh grapes from Chile in the dead of Midwestern winter for 2 bucks a pound, and Norwegian salmon to cook in Italian olive oil for $15 -20 bucks or so. Truly stop and think about that for a minute. It's a miracle.

The median full time hourly wage is around $31 dollars. For ONE HOUR of work, the median working American can get all of the groceries listed below, which is about 22,000 calories. They can feed themselves for 10 days (or a family of 4 for around 2 and a half days), with an hour of labor.

This is the stupidest industry for socialists to go after.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Investors have made so much money funding American startups that there's essentially an unlimited supply of capital for the next good idea. It's one of America's greatest competitive advantages.

[Maximus @MaxOsbon]

"the tail is not wagging the dog. The tail has hoisted the dog off the ground and is swinging it in a circle to see what happens"
@PatrickEBoyle Unbelievable line re: leverred Kospi stocks. 😂

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

The Valley was flat on its back then. Totally devastated. This was ballsy for all three parties. Don’s inspirational message was a little excessive though.

[Lloyd Blankfein @lloydblankfein]

Coming to July 4th—contrast the idealism, courage and sacrifices of the founding generation with the willful blindness of current pols who won’t risk anything to call out corruption and extremism in plain sight in their own party. Where is the revulsion?? Are we inured to it?

[Maximus @MaxOsbon]

@NYCMayor You can’t fool all the people all the time

[Maximus @MaxOsbon]

@SteveSchmidtSES Right, because nothing screams 'American exceptionalism' quite like brutalist concrete.

[JM Rothberg @JMRothberg]

That’s 40 x 8950 sensors.

40 $BFLY Ultrasound-on-a-Semiconductor chips + Midjourney AI Genius + $NVDA GPUs.

Each @ButterflyNetInc chip has 8950 transducers.

This is what we mean by our powered by @ButterflyNetInc program.

[Caitlin Long 🔑⚡️🟠 @CaitlinLong_]

THIS HEADLINE IS MISLEADING: Sam funded these bets with stolen customer money and he was validly convicted of his crimes. That his bets paid off does not excuse the underlying crime. His PR campaign is nauseating. 🤢🤮

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

China is Mogging Western Auto, and that’s Bad for Semis, National Security & War

If you live anywhere outside the US, you've noticed it: the streets are filling up with cars you've never seen before. Chery? Jaecoo? Zeekr? Leapmotor? BYD? No, you didn't miss a decade of car launches. They're Chinese. And they're everywhere. (1/10)🧵

[Maximus @MaxOsbon]

The "best money can buy" category got dramatically more expensive: travel, watches, hotels, art, sports tickets, ultra luxury real estate...

But a lot of basic stuff has stayed the same price or is now cheaper.

You might need 10M to not have to say NO to anything financial, but that's also a very weak long term strategy. You should still scoff at high prices when they are a ripoff regardless of NW.

[Maximus @MaxOsbon]

@DeItaone sword huh

[Brad Gerstner @altcap]

🇺🇸💰🚀

[Maximus @MaxOsbon]

It is fundamentally stupid to base taxes on unstable asset prices. META fell 70% in 2022. So $1B in META assets became $300m in assets.

And using notional $ figures to set taxes ignores the evolving dynamics of prices over time.

Fishing rules in MA require you to be a resident or have $5,000 of real estate in MA. The rule was set in 1940 and never updated. I’m sure $5k of real estate was a lot back then.

I’m not saying $1B won’t be a lot in 100 yrs. But the approach of taxing unstable asset prices using fixed notional amounts is too basic of an approach to what is fundamentally a dynamic math problem.

[Maximus @MaxOsbon]

Called this shot and nailed it.

On Decemeber 4, 2024 I spoke with @leadlagreport about my busted SPAC thesis. $PL $HYLN $BFLY $AUR

The thesis was: these companies went public at the wrong time, crashed with the overall market, and were largely ignored because of the low share price. Narrative follows price and the price was too low for people to care, regardless of the team or tech. Also, private markets are sexy and low price SPACs are lame, that's just how it is.

Since then, PL is up more the 10x, HYLN is up 2x and starting to catch fire on AI energy narratives, BFLY ended up in ARKK and is doing fine, and AUR is roughly flat to slightly positive.

I like to try to mimic private markets in public markets. I was looking for VC like returns with this thesis, with one company more than making up for the others and PL ended up being the winner from a $3.85 basis to $50 today.

https://t.co/rSEsmYIq6e