Lots of discussion out there about our next model(!), so I wanted to give an early look as soon as possible. Introducing Gemini 4 Argon!
It shows frontier performance in complex workflows, cyber defense and software engineering. Teams are using it extensively at Google, from coding to quantum computing, great feedback.
Hereâs a look at the benchmarks:
I led engineering at Google DeepMind.
Today, I'm proud to introduce Fo to give personal AI something no lab ever has... Humans.
Other personal AI's pretend AI can do everything. Fo employs humans to do tasks that AI cannot.
- 2x better at real-world task completion (beats other agents by 69%)
- 94% trust rate (4x less likely to leak private info vs Muse, Instinct)
Sign up for free: https://t.co/9ndFhcN5mO
Feeling the AGI/ASI, few observations
1. Opus 5.5 really gives strong vibes of AGI (maybe not fully there, but we're very close, like 80%-90%).
For example, few breakthoughs in training humanoids are needed. We need to move this intelligence into physical world.
2. I don't think Anthropic has discovered any magical formula.
3. Which means, SpaceXAI, Google, and others will soon follow. This prediction is based on the amount of compute they already have + additional compute being added all the time.
4. Never was more confident that Anthropic, SpaceXAI, Google, OpenAI, likely Meta, basically all big US AGI labs will have proper AGI in 2027.
5. And from there we'll move quickly to ASI territory (likely also in 2027).
It looks like few GW of compute are enough for strong AGI, now imagine what we will able to do with 10-20GW of compute which are rapidly coming online.
And then with 100GW-200GW...
2027 will be an utterly insane year.
Ever wonder what $1874.40 of Opus 5.5 tokens looks like?
Wonder no more.
I highly recommend watching the whole video on 1080p on a large screen with sound on.
Pay attention to all the little details.
- Birds flying and diving into the ocean.
- Cloth, signs and lights swaying in the wind.
- Crabs scuttling along the shore and burrowing when you get close.
- Fish swimming alongside the whale.
- Lights illuminating the dock at night
Then zoom out and see the entire island. Never dipping below 60 FPS at 1440p resolution.
Yes, there's a few bugs and visual artifacts, some textures need improving, the shorelines waves sometimes look funny, but these are so trivial to fix at this point.
FYI I'm on the $200 subscription plan. This used 59% of my weekly usage and took 2h 7h of API time using multiple subagents, about 8h in real-time.
There was extremely little technical direction here. 99% of my prompts were "Add X and Y" or "This looks weird, make it better".
It's a great time for hobbyists, bad time for professionals. This experiment has further cemented my view that technical creatives are about to experience a massive disruption.
for a startup founder right now the paradox is that this may be the best & worst time to start a company.
the opportunity surface is basically infinite cuz ai keeps collapsing the cost of building, experimenting, & entering new markets. but the durability of any individual advantage is collapsing faster than ever too. anything obviously valuable gets copied, bundled, or commoditized incredibly fast. before you can even blink.
& worse now the big guys are shipping fast too so in many ways youâre kind of running downhill while meta, openai, anthropic, etc. are driving behind you even faster in a giant luxury bus with the high beams turned on to the max.
Dario has written that we need to âpace the frontier,â and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric â market share, revenue growth, model capability â the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. Youâve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I donât see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone elseâs permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropicâs investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who arenât even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sandersâ âshut it all down.â China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, youâll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you donât, weâll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture â or an election-season psyop.
Playing at the frontier is a rich manâs game. You burn too much cash to stay competitive, and if open source catches up, your margins get squeezed. The only moat left is regulation.
I hope the proposals by frontier labs to pace AI research stem from a genuine concern for safety and a recognition of the potential risks posed by future models, rather than a strategic effort to consolidate power and permanently solidify the market dominance of a few top players.
If these efforts are genuine, then oversight must take a more democratic and accountable form, with both national and international components, similar to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency internationally.
If there is only one organization responsible for safety monitoring, and it happens to be staffed by the same people as the frontier labs, and it is perfectly aligned with them both by incentives and by ideology, then it would be indistinguishable from letting frontier labs self-regulate and self-certify their own safety standards.
Two potential warning signs of regulatory capture to watch out for:
1. Calls to ban open-source AI. Open-source development currently serves as the only real counterweight to the dominance of frontier labs.
2. Attempts to hinder non-frontier research. Models that are one or two generations behind the frontier -- whose level of capability has already been deployed at scale -- are empirically known not to pose safety risks.
As long as we don't see 1 & 2, and we see real international coordination efforts, then I will optimistically believe that the proposals are benevolent.