MelOps

X Journal | Finance | NFA!

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@MDCTrades305 Thank you bro! Happy to join you

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

Started this small $6k account about 2 weeks ago. So far so good 🚀

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@EchoAnalysis Retest of trendline coming no?

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@colin_gladman +1k% on 0dte. Thank you on sniper entry

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@asklivermore What of software?

[Bassem @Basssem666]

$SPY Support held. Not bearish yet and all time highs shall come. If it holds again on Monday then it’s rocket mode. A close below 739 on Monday will bring 720s again.

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

SPY OPEN | Tuesday June 30 | Quarter-End

$743.43. Up 0.33%. GEX is positive for the first time since the rebalancing began. The structure transformed. 1.47 million puts expire at 4 PM. The chapter closes today.

THE STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION:

Two weeks ago we published: "The selloff is plumbing, not earnings. The plumbing has an expiration date." Here's what the plumbing looks like now vs the worst of the rebalancing:

GEX: +$208.5M. Was -$1,730M. Positive for the first time. The amplification regime that drove every selloff, every afternoon fade, and the $716 flash crash is gone. Replaced by suppression. Dealers buy dips and sell rips again.

Engine: +77.5M. Was -29.0M at the worst. At 46% of cycle peak. The forced-buying loop is running at nearly half its April-May strength and accelerating. Five reversals in four days last week. Zero reversals in the last two sessions. The switch stayed on.

Magnets: 7 of 10 top levels are magnets. Was 0 of 10 for four consecutive sessions. The structural gravity that pulled price upward all spring has returned.

$744: +$142M (at price)
$743: +$132M (at price)
$748: +$73M (0.6% above)
$750: +$170M (0.9% above, LARGEST)
$755: +$93M (1.6% above)
$760: +$85M (2.2% above)
$800: +$79M (7.6% above)

$774M of magnets pulling toward $750-$760. The falling wedge breakout at $753 sits inside the magnet cluster. The structure is pulling price toward the breakout level.

IV: 15.6%. Compressed from 19.0% at the peak. Essentially at realized vol. No residual fear premium. The crisis is completely priced out.

Premium: +$873M at 79% call. The highest call percentage of the entire cycle. For every dollar going to puts, nearly four dollars are going to calls. The institutional conviction is one-directional.

Composite: +24.7 Lean Bullish. Was -52.3 Strong Bearish eight days ago. A 77-point swing. The most dramatic composite reversal in our dataset.

THE FLOW:

+42.8M bullish. Second consecutive session of strong positive flow. Yesterday was +161.9M (second-highest of the cycle). Two sessions of sustained bullish flow after five sessions of afternoon reversals. The pattern broke and stayed broken.

NTM P/C ratio: 1.07. The most balanced near-the-money reading of the cycle. Equal conviction near the money. No fear. No panic. No heavy hedging at current strikes.

GEX flip: $741. 0.3% below price. The floor moved UP from $733 yesterday to $741 today. The floor is rebuilding underneath price as the structure heals. The flip rising while price rises means the cushion is growing from below. The opposite of the topping condition.

THE FINALE:

1.47 million puts expire at 4 PM. The largest single-day put clearing of the cycle. As each put expires, the dealer unwinds the short stock hedge by buying shares. 1.47 million contracts of forced mechanical buying flowing through the close. The MOC bid from today's put expiration is the most powerful single-session buying event since the rebalancing began.

This is the mirror image of the $716 flash crash. Friday's gamma cascade forced dealer SELLING into the close. Today's put expiration forces dealer BUYING into the close. Same mechanic. Opposite direction.

THE CHAPTER:

June 9: Iran shock. SPY $724.83. GEX -$2,021M. Record bearish flow.
June 11: De-escalation. Four stabilization conditions confirmed.
June 15: Recovery. GEX +$1,156M. ATH approach.
June 17: FOMC. Dot plot eliminated. GEX -$969M.
June 18: Quarterly OpEx. Structure stripped.
June 22-26: Quarter-end rebalancing. $165B forced selling. Five engine reversals. Three catalyst failures. $716 flash crash.
June 29: Afternoon reversal pattern broke. +161.9M flow.
June 30: GEX positive. 7 of 10 magnets. 1.47M puts expire. Chapter closes.

Every session documented. Every level published before the move. Every thesis tested against the data. The selloff was plumbing. The plumbing had an expiration date. The expiration date is today.

Tomorrow is July 1. +3.37% seasonal average. 100% hit rate. The falling wedge at $753. The Reverse H&S at $758. Both pulling. The rebalancing headwind expires at 4 PM. The tailwind begins tomorrow.

$750 is the magnet. $743 is at price. $741 is the flip. $730 is max pain. Today is the day.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@TradexWhisperer Moving forward the red candle prior to blue will show blue now correct with the new update?

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@EchoAnalysis Definitely smelling a very lucrative long swing here at this level

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@EchoAnalysis Time to enter or wait for buy zone. I feel it’s a fake pump and there’s more downside to below 100$

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@EchoAnalysis Had this on watch yesterday but missed it. Too focused on PLTR lol which was a great trade

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@EchoAnalysis With you boss

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@Brownmoose Yeah probable

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

I see green Monday Tuesday and red after FOMC $SPY $QQQ

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@leadlagreport @MichaelPBento Trump taco’d hard today during market and he isn’t letting the market crash on the biggest IPO in history and with his ego to take profit. It’s that simple super green tomorrow. Next week… who knows

[Bassem @Basssem666]

$SPY Lots of overnight and pre market volatility. That’ll make the entry a bit tricky but if I nail it right it’ll print two nice trades in both directions.

I think the pre market high and low will be tested. Currently I’m leaning towards the high being tested first since it’s closer. I’ll scalp puts again as soon as we tap it.

Once we test the pre market lows at 721 I’ll start positioning for longs. My ideal spot for calls is still 718-715. Let’s see how the day plays out.

[MelOps @MeloOptions]

@EchoAnalysis $ROOT held really well even with that last week, esp Friday selloff. I think it’s time. Might full port this one lol