@pmje73 Love this. Inevitable = near certainty / undetermined timing. Probable = reasonable chance, say 35-60%. Possible = <5% but don't discount it.
@investingichina Tough biz with $CEC. But if they could get from 2% EBITDA margins back to 4% like JD or $CEC of pre-2016 (mix of groceries) or $BBY of 6-7%.
That's a huge homerun. That's why Convergenta kept 25%, maybe they see upside.
@AbrahamGYSimon Meituan won food delivery wars. But still have PDD, JD, now BABA coming in. Is food delivery a wedge (since you eat everyday, you open the app, get food, and buy other items too)?
Everyone assumes eComm is matured. But +50% of pop still poor, underconsuming.
@dede_eyesan I comp airports globally and AOT came at the most expensive by far (yes, it's a monopoly in TH). It was not like the margins or FCF margins were high.
But I really liked CAAP. Never got cheap enough to buy.
Great tip by Buffett.
Ask a CEO, if you were stuck on an island for a few years, which of YOUR COMPETITORS' stock would you put your family's wealth in and why?
Then flip that question:
"Which of YOUR COMPETITORS stock would you short?"
#WARREN#BUFFETT $BRK.B $BRK.A
Correct. People also fail to realize that we have a trade surplus for services. Why ? Because capital flows to where there are profits. AI, Software, tech in general generates huge profits and equity valuations. Making “stuff” doesn’t
No matter the tariffs , capital isn’t going to start flowing to non-tech manufacturing , simply because it’s not profitable enough.
Particularly when Americans won’t pay a premium for made in the USA and we aren’t as good at Robotics as other countries.
Long only investors have the luxury of -and great ones can even take pride in- ignoring the market completely.
A lot of short selling is not investing. If your counterparty is a speculator on a short, then you become a speculator. That's real dangerous if you don't acknowledge it.
If you're a short seller and you're sick of that, consider focusing on shorts where your counterparty is a real or at least semi-real investor.
With gold kissing $3000/oz, now is a good time to remind ourselves that when we price the S&P500 in gold rather than dollars, the index is flat since 2006.
That 382% return in dollars since 2006 ain’t what you think it is.