Merle Schrock

[Options King Of The Sea @SeaKingOptions]

Everyone posting incessantly about the $SPX 7350p move at EOD is going to find out sunday night that $SPX options close at 4:01 and their position expired worthless, because $SPX closed at 7353 lol

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

EDUCATIONAL POST:

🚨MARKET MECHANICS | THE GAMMA PIN BREAK

SPY traded an $16.82 range in a single minute at the close today. $733.40 to $716.58 and back to $729.09. In 60 seconds. 4.7 million shares. Here's exactly what happened and why.

THE TWO-DAY PATTERN:

Thursday: SPY crossed green-to-red 32 times across the full session. Price oscillated at $734 for 6.5 hours. Net change: $0.02. The gamma pin held. Dealers bought every dip and sold every rip at the pinned strike. The market went nowhere because the mechanics forced it nowhere.

Friday: SPY crossed green-to-red 18 times but all 18 were packed into a 2 hour 43 minute window between 11:29 AM and 2:12 PM. Then it broke. The 9th and final green-to-red flip at 2:12 PM was the last time SPY traded above $734.30. It never came back.

THE DIAGNOSTIC:

Crossings spread evenly across the day = pin holds. Crossings clustered in a tight window = pin is being tested and will break. The break direction matches which side of the pin price spends more time on during the cluster window. Friday, SPY spent more cumulative time below $734 during the cluster. That foreshadowed the breakdown.

THE BREAKDOWN SEQUENCE:

2:12 PM: Final flip. SPY drops below $734.30 permanently.
2:12 to 3:58 PM: Slow drift from $734 to $733. Dealers who had been buying at the pin start selling as delta hedges flip from the positive side to the negative side of the strike.
3:59 PM: The cascade.

THE 3:59 PM FLASH:

One minute. One candle. Everything breaks.

Open: $733.40
Low: $716.58
Close: $729.09
Range: $16.82
Volume: 4.7 million shares (8.1x the prior minute's 577K)

For context, a normal 1-minute SPY range is $0.20 to $0.50. A CPI surprise or Fed announcement produces $3-5. Today's closing minute produced $16.82. Three to four times what a major economic event generates.

THE MECHANIC:

This is a closing-cross gamma cascade. Here's the sequence:

First: SPY lost the $734 gamma pin at 2:12 PM. Dealers had been net-long at the pin level all day, buying dips and selling rips to stay delta-neutral. Once the pin broke to the downside, their positioning flipped. Long delta became a liability. They started selling.

Second: The MOC (market-on-close) imbalance feed published a SELL imbalance. Quarter-end rebalancing flow from pension funds compounded with the dealer selling. The passive funds needed to sell SPY at the close. The dealers needed to sell SPY to stay hedged. Both sellers arrived in the same 60-second window.

Third: 0DTE put gamma cascaded. As price dropped through $730, $725, $720, each strike's put gamma went deep in-the-money. Dealers short those puts had to sell shares to hedge. Each dollar lower forced more selling. The gamma feedback loop accelerated.

Fourth: At $716.58, institutional bids stepped in. The real buyers were waiting at $716-$720. The snap-back from $716 to $729 happened in seconds. The flash lasted less than 30 seconds before the buy orders absorbed it.

THE CLOSING PRICES:

The official NYSE closing auction printed $731.13. That's the price-matched auction result, not the intraday low. Financial sites will show different numbers depending on which close they use. The flash to $716 was an intra-auction event that resolved before the official match.

WHO MADE MONEY:

Anyone holding 0DTE $720 puts bought for pennies saw them briefly hit $3.42 of intrinsic value ($720 minus $716.58) during the flash. A $0.05 lottery ticket briefly worth $342 per contract. The same mechanic as the MRVL $310 put we documented last week. The pattern repeats: extreme gamma concentration at expiration creates violent closing-minute moves that reward positioning at strikes nobody expects to get hit.

THE FRAMEWORK:

We now have three documented closing-auction patterns:

1. Gamma Pin Hold: 30+ crossings spread across full session. Closes flat. The pin wins. Dealers suppress all movement. (Thursday June 25)

2. Gamma Pin Break: 15-20 crossings clustered in a tight window, then directional move. The pin loses. Dealers switch from suppressing to amplifying. (Friday June 26)

3. Inclusion Arb Flush: Arb inventory exceeds passive demand at the MOC. Forced selling cascades through the closing cross. (MRVL June 18)

All three are driven by the same underlying mechanic: dealer gamma positioning at concentrated strikes creates forced buying or selling at the close. The direction and magnitude depend on the positioning imbalance and the MOC flow.

The data tells you the setup. The close resolves it.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

[Norseman Market Timing @Norseman1]

Careful thinking on Hindenburg Omens (or any other fake H.O.'s) firing right now..
These are NOT like the signals from the 1980's when Miekka created the tool..
Today's NYSE is polluted with ADR's, preferred shares, rate-sensitive sub-debt hitting 52-week lows on a Fed repricing — instruments that didn't exist on the NYSE when the signal was designed..
Strip the ADR's alone from today's new-low list.. the HO doesn't qualify..(if the $NYMOT was below 0)
And the A-D Line has been printing NEW HIGHS against them..
Miekka's signal needs OVERWHELMING numbers when the A-D Line is confirming.. these barely trigger on a contaminated list..
That's not the signal.. that's noise.

[Mark Newton CMT @MarkNewtonCMT]

Markets remain in a period of rotation, and despite Equal-weighted SPX set to make new all-time highs on a closing basis, Technology is starting to come under pressure. It started with Software, then Mag-7, and now the first few ripples are being seen within the Semi space. Have the Semiconductors peaked? That's still doubtful and difficult to make a technically bearish case right away based on price. But i assume until/unless $MAGS starts to lift right away (Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF) it's tough to make an imminent case for SPX and QQQ to join RSP back at new highs. For now, the 3 main factors that normally drive market downdrafts are not in place; 1) Bullish sentiment (While this rose a bit post FOMC meeting, it's certainly nowhere near bullish levels 2) Breadth deterioration (In fact the opposite has happened over the last three months) Breadth has expanded, Russell 3k Advance/Decline is at the highest levels in 5 years and the percentage of Russell 3k stocks trading above their 20-day moving average has doubled since late March 3) Defensive trading picking up. This has not yet underway to the extent one can say Defensives are being favored simply based on REITS, Healthcare, and Utilities doing a bit better. While Consumer Staples have outperformed this week, we'll need to see far more to argue that markets are getting defensive. Thus, this uncertain choppy time might be with us for awhile and directly ties into the bearish seasonal period that Mid-term q3 periods are famous for. Does this mean a 20% decline is starting? That's doubtful. But yet, it's worth paying attention to this rotation. Healthcare is an OVERWEIGHT tactically and should be favored, along with REITS for those who might be too top-heavy in Technology. Airlines, Banks, Homebuilders are other areas which are working well right now. I do not think Mag-7 has bottomed despite the one-day bounce in MSFT, and so for those who are searching for groups pushing higher, they're certainly there, they're just not in Technology right now. Yes, i HAVE raised my 2026 SPX target from 7300 to 8k which was done to coincide with end of 1H and Tom's call and wasn't specifically tactically driven during a time of technology weakening. For those who ARENT getting daily reports and my 5-10 min video DAILY, you can find here : https://t.co/v0f4RME3on as i rarely if ever post actionable market thoughts and/or thorough market content here !! Happy Friday and Happy Summer

[FoFty @FoFtyTrader]

first clear positive divergence on silver in a couple of years - started a long silver position here

[Hopper @zeroXhope]

🚨 WARNING: S&P 500 MAX DRAWDOWN IN EVERY MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR:

1962: -28.0%
1966: -22.2%
1970: -36.1%
1974: -48.2%
1978: -14.1%
1982: -27.1%
1986: -9.4%
1990: -19.9%
1994: -8.9%
1998: -19.3%
2002: -33.8%
2006: -7.7%
2010: -16.0%
2014: -7.4%
2018: -10.2%
2022: -25.4%

NOT A SINGLE POSITIVE RETURN IN 60 YEARS

2026 WON'T BE DIFFERENT

Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS.

I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again.

That’s literally my job.

If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

[John @market_sleuth]

If I were betting they likely dump this more into Monday’s close then we rip Tues-Thurs. (Just a hopeful guess). MAG7 getting really oversold on the hourly & daily & even the weekly (for a few). Four of the MAG7 are now trading under their 200 DMA with 2 others getting closer.😶‍🌫️

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

LISTEN TO ME CAREFULLY.

Midterm years are designed to DESTROY traders until October.

Let me tell you EXACTLY what to do.

Markets are still incredibly bullish long-term.

I still believe significant upside remains.
I still believe we'll see multiple new all-time highs before this cycle is over.

But before that...

We are entering what I believe is the TOUGHEST stretch of 2026.

For now, everything comes down to the 725 area on $SPY.

Hold it and this likely remains a normal midterm-year shakeout.

Lose it and a move into the Weekly 21 EMA becomes increasingly likely.

Expect:

• Choppy price action
• Failed breakouts
• Large wicks
• Violent sector rotations

What to do?

Historically, defensive sectors tend to outperform during these periods of uncertainty:

Healthcare: $UNH $MRK

Consumer Staples: $KO

Utilities: $NEE

Energy: $XOM $CVX

I would also be cautious assuming the traditional Mag 7 automatically leads the next phase higher:

$AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $META $AMZN $NVDA $TSLA

Every major cycle creates new leaders.

The next phase of the AI trade may look very different than the last.

This is the type of market that punishes emotional decisions and rewards patience.

Most traders will spend the next few months chasing every move.

My focus is simple:

Protect capital.
Stay with the leaders.
Remain balanced until October.

You must FOLLOW and I will help save your account.

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

Uncle @Qullamaggie agrees.

"Focus on tight ranges. Doesn't matter what time frame. Tight ranges is all you should focus on. Wide and loose is for losers and tight is for winners."

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

One lesson the market has taught me over and over again:

Tops are a process.
Bottoms are an event.

Tops don't happen because of one piece of bad news.
They happen after weeks or months of people convincing themselves every dip is another buying opportunity.

Bottoms don't happen because the news suddenly gets better.
They happen when fear reaches a point where nobody wants to buy anymore.

That's why bottoms feel so uncomfortable.

We were together riding this through COVID, the 2021 top, the 2022 bear market, the 2025 top and April bottom, the January 2026 top, and now again in 2026.

The charts change. The headlines change.
Human psychology doesn't.

It comes from living through enough market cycles to recognize what they look and feel like.

Everything I share is based on that experience.

And I treat every person who wants to learn the same way I'd want someone to teach my own family.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops.

Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung)
Nikkei is down -4.8%
TWSE Index is down -3.82%

As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%.

From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but usually frontrun index drops.

And they typically recover earlier?

Aside from Korea which is typically volatile, when major indexes start correcting 3-4% a day, usually not a fun time.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

NAZ: potential for trend day down out of 3 bar triangle with SS on 2-per ROC.

[Master WU @MasterPandaWu]

Third Blood < 7250.
The Second Blood dropped to 7323, lower than my 7330 target--that series deemed complete.
Now, it is the brutal sequel--THE THIRD.
It takes much longer for the rebalance under DMA-50; Once it is complete, the next move would be fast, with a large gap-down.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Interesting, @FoFtyTrader is seeing a collapse in AI GPU rental prices.

What does this mean?
Data center profitability margins are collapsing too.

Lower margins = less cash + no reason to continue ordering Nvidia hardware

While he didn't suggest AI demand is falling, I'm willing to bet most companies have figured out by now its usefulness in their business is extremely limited.

Also, LLM commodity providers have suddenly realized their customers aren't willing to pay the 10x to 20x reall cost of their service.

Until now, they've been absorbing the costs by basically throwing cash into a furnace. That all stops once the private credit stops, hence the rush to IPO before the collapse.

Elon Musk's timing to IPO SpaceX $SPCX was perfect.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

My dear followers. This is my WARNING again.

Markets are still incredibly bullish long-term.
I still think we have 2+ years worth of uptrend to go.
I still think we can continue to make multiple all-time highs throughout the next few years.

However, I want to warn you that short-term, I expect greater buying opportunities lower for amazing names.

Right now, my portfolio consists of:
1. AI winners - like $GOOGL, $MU, $BB, $GLW, etc.
2. Healthcare - like $ABBV
3. Utilities - like $NEE
4. Biotechnology - like $ABBV
5. Defensives - like $KO
6. Moonshots - like $HOOD and $PL

I am staying balanced until October 2026.

For software, the only names I like right now are $DDOG, $TWLO, and cybersecurity like $CRWD and $NET.

This is the TOUGHEST stretch over the next 3 months.
A lot of chop, low volume, large wicks.
If you buy, it’ll go down.
If you sell, it’ll go up.
Lots of fake outs both sides.

Stay in your AI winners, but I caution you to stay balanced so you can sleep well at night until October 2026.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

South Korea panicking. -5.5%

Important to note memory stocks were the strongest members of $SOXL today…

Half of $KOSPI is just two mega-cap memory companies, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

If neither can hold up, especially post $MU earnings not sure what can hold it up in the short term.

Actually -8.8% now.. was drafting it earlier

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Some cracks perhaps.

Strong sell this morning across the AI stocks, despite the strong bounce.

Most strength coming from the memory stocks rather than the AI chips which led the initial waves higher.

-Token prices trending lower
-New models being blocked by Admin
-Recent Kospi fears around DRAM
-Record momentum vs min vol (5 st. dev)

Despite the beat on $MU today the sell off of the open showed a massive 30min twap order filling into the prior close.

I still believe we are likely to see a larger pullback, similar to the 97 and 99 pullbacks that took us down -15 to -30% along the way.

This doesn't necessarily mean the Qs or SPY but moreso the $SOXX $SOXL.

Feelers are out.

[Joey @TheStaad]

Charlie Kirk’s lapel mic exploded and killed him

The first time I saw the video, before we knew anything, I knew it was a close-range impact

This is not difficult to see or to understand. Nor is it controversial

It is the truth

But keep trusting the same people who tell you that the Muslims did 9/11

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Behind the smoke screen of a strong $DJIA, an historic top might be forming in $MSFT

[Merle Schrock @MerleSchrock]

RT @DollarCostAvg: $MU on pace to generate much faster and bigger margins on revenue than $NVDA YET it is the lowest P/E ~ 7 Tech Company.…