Michael Dibon

[Michael Dibon @MichaelDibon]

https://t.co/dAf5N016Gg

[chatSBC @chat_SBC]

biggest mindset shift I’ve seen last 2 years is stocks are less businesses/cash flows and more as crypto-esq tokens of some KPI or theme

In that framework no price for stocks that don’t hit eps

This will change but def regime in nt

[Michael Dibon @MichaelDibon]

Love to see that the Nomad letters are receiving the care they deserve!

[Tamara Winter @tamarawinter]

Messing around in the archives 😌 so tickled by the evolution of @stripepress galley design

[Kit Winder, CFA @WinderKit]

Nice work from the FT, quantifying the scale of the Leo Aschenwhatever loss in the history of trading losses...

Turns out, pretty big.

[Cluseau Investments @blondesnmoney]

"The market will regulate itself"

[Lawrence Hamtil @lhamtil]

Evergreen from the king
https://t.co/n8tXH2ZJII

[Yellowbrick Investing @joinyellowbrick]

50x sales and closing in on Lockheed’s valuation (who has 35x higher revenue).

At some point, VCs run out of other VCs to sell to

[Unemployed Capital Allocator @atelicinvest]

A lot of investors are basically fans of investing itself. It’s all about the performance of being an investor.

They have mastered the tickers, the comps, the EV/EBITDA ranges, the revenue multiples, the KPIs, the footnotes, the sell-side vocabulary — but the businesses themselves are often just a backdrop for their own fluency. They know every number except the ones that matter.

Anyone can memorize where everything trades. That is not the same as understanding where value will accrue. Extreme familiarity with minutiae can become a security blanket for people who do not want to make a judgment about the future. If you know every relative multiple in a sector, you can avoid asking the harder questions: What is changing? Who is gaining power? What does the market misunderstand? What will matter three years from now?

Their obsession with detail becomes a beard. If you know absolutely everything about your little cubbyhole of financial and qualitative data, it saves you from having to think about anything bigger. That is why it can be so painful to talk to these investors: they are always asking questions whose answers are already in the spreadsheet.

[John Rotonti Jr @JRogrow]

Legend...

[Prompter @PromptLLM]

Crazy take from Claude

[kab60 @kab604]

One $FISV tell was Lyons and the C-suite saying 'constant compounder' again and again as if it would become true. Investor day was insufferable too. I took in so much consultant speak that I'm still not well. Hearing 'financial algorithm' makes eczema flare up.

[Michael Dibon @MichaelDibon]

Nah..

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

GOLDMAN SEES SPACEX AI REVENUE EXPLODING TO $322B BY 2030

Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B.

AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.

[David L. Bahnsen @DavidBahnsen]

Kudos to @andrewrsorkin and @BeckyQuick for not letting this publicity stunt grift go without being called out. The gamification of markets nonsense deserves some serious people who will stand in the way. But at the very least, it deserves some people who can do math.

[Paul Graham @paulg]

There's never been an investment like the investment in railroads. (This graph has a log scale!)

[Michael Dibon @MichaelDibon]

“Efficient market”

[Andrew Walker @AndrewRangeley]

Going to be tough to top $FNMA for "most blatant end of quarter" pump, but I see a few different funds are trying their best. God speed.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Bill Ackman pumped his stock by 50% today 🫡

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

This the 2nd time Ackman has moved FNMA 35% on the last couple days of the quarter lol

[Turner Novak 🍌🧢 @TurnerNovak]

"everyone will vibe code their own DoorDash"

is the 2026 version of

"everything will be an NFT"

[Michael Dibon @MichaelDibon]

Private market access = retail gets overpriced, unsellable assets at the worst time. Robinhood gets its 2% fee. Retail becomes the exit liquidity, as always. Same old story of finance.

[Vlad Tenev @vladtenev]

Introducing Robinhood Ventures: private market access, for everyone.

No accreditation thresholds. No high minimums. A new venture model.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

"We're not halting liquidity, we're accelerating returns."

Beautiful language. Almost poetic. Reminds me of every press release I read from mortgage lenders in early 2007.

Let me translate from corporate PR to English:

You froze redemptions in November. You tried to force a merger that would have cost investors 20% of their money. Investors revolted. You killed the deal.

Now you're permanently replacing the quarterly tender offer with distributions YOU control, on YOUR timeline, and calling it an upgrade.

That's not "accelerating returns." That's telling investors they'll never again choose when to exit - and dressing it up as a favor.

They sold $600 million in assets at "99.7% of fair value."

But fair value according to whom?

The same managers who told investors there was "no meaningful pressure" on redemptions while $150 million was walking out the door?

The same firm now facing a federal class-action lawsuit for allegedly hiding a liquidity crisis?

And I keep hearing the clever argument that private credit is fine because software companies have sticky revenue, big equity cushions, and sponsors will play nice to protect their relationships.

I've been doing this for 45 years.

And every cycle produces a version of this - smart-sounding people explaining why THIS time the risks are contained.

In 2006 it was: "Housing doesn't go down nationally."

In 2000 it was: "Revenue doesn't matter, it's about eyeballs."

Today it's: "Software companies can't blow up."

Maybe. But private credit didn't blow up because of software defaults.

It's blowing up because of what it always was: an illiquid asset class sold with a liquidity promise it could never keep.

The gates aren't going up because borrowers are defaulting. The gates are going up because investors want out and there's no exit.

When Blue Owl shuts off the comments section on their own announcement, that tells you more than the announcement itself.

When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.