Michael Lippe

Dabbles in finance, sports gambling and health optimization.

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

Might be my favorite ud team of all-time

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@ScottBarrettDFB @RyanJ_Heath @DevyEusuf Can someone explain why the entire industry is down on Cole Payton?

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@Tyler__Duke Love the Adam Scott call. My stats based Masters model likes him in the top 15 and he’s 6th in the Augusta trend counts as well. Too cheap

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@MichaelPBento All noise. VX futures hit weekly pivot and ES has a date with 4 hour 200 ema just like last April before the eventual volatility release

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@Daniel_Rapaport No concern about his near 0.08 strokes gained on approach this season?

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@MicCrewDaGoose @UnderdogDrafts @BestballNoah Agreed

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@NicholasMMiller Seth Mcgowen the next Alvin Kamara

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@ScottBarrettDFB It’s much more complicated than it needs to be. Cole Payton QB1

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@siimland When you factor in 3 mins of steady state recovering from each sprint, the net time difference is pretty marginal at 15 minutes

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@endless_frank The war ending doesn’t necessarily mean the marker has bottomed

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@TyBealPhD Yes just expected it to be highly ranked or this graphic subset excluded a number of highly ranked goods? Cheers

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@sporer @RobSilver For sure. Beauty of baseball is how everyone ger’s to choose navigate and to interact with the huge trove of data we are given

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@sporer @RobSilver Stuff+ normalizes after 80-100 pitches according to fangraphs, csw% per pitcherlist at 10 starts and pitcher launch angle quite quickly if I’m not mistaken. Why should that dissuade projections from 53 ip which is well within the normalization window of these metrics?

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@RobSilver That’s what makes baseball analysis so fun! But probably haha

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@RobSilver Yeah full walk forward, monte carlo analysis to ensure no OOS degradation problem is stuff+ is a large driver of the model and it’s data is limited. Either way, I think it makes Cavali a uniquely interesting high upside gamble. Him and Jose
Soriano have eerily similar profiles

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@RobSilver I simply ran a multi-AI machine learning model in predicting next season's strikeout rate using model inputs of stuff+, swinging strike % and csw% and it has a decently better r-squared than k% alone. Also this is with a 3.8 degree launch angle, my closest comp is framber valdez

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@RobSilver Sorry, 29.50% expected strikeout rate based on a formula of his swinging strike %, csw% and stuff+

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@RobSilver If you look at his expected strikeout rate vs actual, he is top 5 regression candidate and sits somewhere around 28%

[Michael Lippe @MichaelLippe90]

@PharmD_KS ES1! bounced almost precisely off weekly s1 into the close. Far from capitulatory behavior