Michael Stroup

Interested in finance and macro economics

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

Walmart still trades at a very expensive multiple of 37x.
Target is 16x.

[ace $ @acemoney21]

NTM eps for some of the leaders of these sectors and we are doing stuff like capitalizing WMT and COST at 37x and 42x NTM EPS, respectively

ALSO shown is WMT NTM multiples vs historically where their ntm multiples have been

Similar to COST, which together make up 20% of XLP,

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@Vmaxpax Dang Furus and their secrets! 😅

The only certainty is that there is enormous market dislocation in tankers. Seems like a crazy game of whack-a-mole where it's hard to know where to allocate ships. If you think a WAF rate will spike 50% in 2 weeks, why steam fast just to wait?

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Me after zero UKMTO reports today:

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@jeremie0117 31 vessels delivered and 29 damaged/destroyed by Iran. Basically zero change.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@HumbleBee555 How do you track the fixtures?

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

How is VLCC Td3C flat today?!?! Wild.

[BreakWave @DryBulkETF]

Freight Futures AM Update

Dry Bulk
Capesize: down ~1%
Panamax: flat

Tankers
VLCC: flat
Suezmax: flat

$BDRY
$BWET

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@GardinerIsland Why is Sinokor sending brand new ships into Hormuz to get hit? Those guys have navigated this cycle beautifully, so I hate to criticize. Just seems like this is a better job for the old clunkers.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

AI is just free IP, good analysis.

[James Rosen-Birch ⚖️🕊️ @provisionalidea]

there is an argument (which I've made privately until now) that one of the principal innovations of the large language model labs is a *legal* innovation, not a technical one

by building a system that hoovers up mind-bogglingly large volumes of human information and feeds it into a recombinatorial association machine, the companies have bulldozed the existing IP regime and made the contents of ~all human IP (including the most mundane) searchable, reconfigurable, and usable while also obscuring any trace of origin and eliminating a need to provide credit or attribution. much of the perceived benefit is therefore access and exposure to IP people would not otherwise have had access to, presented behind a system that abstracts the IP from its context and history and presents it as net-new information.

I imagine we would have seen ~similar productivity outcomes had Google actually been allowed to make productive use of the Google Books database over a decade ago.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@AyusoValue I'm surprised there isn't more clean to dirty switching for LR2s.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@OilCfd Is there actually Canadian oil going all the way to Texas then out via tanker to China? The text says WCS (USGC) but the map shows a pink line from Vancouver.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@tleilax___ So my $MPC and $DINO longs are safe. Excellent. 😅

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

Can't you just change what time school starts? This isn't rocket science.

[Tom Cotton @SenTomCotton]

No one likes changing the clock, me included, but Congress has enacted permanent Daylight Savings Time multiple times before and repealed it each time once Americans experienced absurdly late sunrises in the winter. Arkansans don’t want their kids going to school in the pitch dark, and I’ll always put Arkansas first.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@ttmygh @LukeGromen Super long post for a dude to say "I slightly disagree with your word choice."

Not really worth a retweet, friend.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@PauloMacro 7 tanker strikes and a few deaths over 5 days will do that.

Then slow roll the UKMTO reporting to confuse everyone.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@JamesJstuartb Refineries & chill. +137% YTD.
Tankers & chill. +210 YTD.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

My brother in Christ, datacenters don't use wood, and housing is dead for another 2 years minimum.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

Good god $WY is getting low here. My guess is rates keep going up and assets like this trade down as people pour into yields. But eventually these become a load the boat up buy. Massive inflation hedges and owning large swaths of land creates multigenerational wealth.

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

Images, you say?

[Marhelm @MarhelmData]

Images emerge of Riyadh in flames as Yememi missiles rain down on the Saudi Capital

[Michael Stroup @Michael__Stroup]

@ICBarrett Yes, the Houthis & Iran have the ability to hit a moving ship with anti-ship missiles.
What I am saying is that there might be other reasons Iran isn't hitting STS yet (positive ID, command and control, logistics, force protection of the fast boats that close to UAE, etc).