Mikeeeyore

[Wilfred Frost @WilfredFrost]

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨

60 minutes with JAMIE DIMON

- wouldn't buy long bonds or SP500 here
- "risks are bigger than people think"
- "I want @AndyBurnham to succeed", but Banks Levy is "wrong"
- Leadership masterclass - breaking bureaucracy; overcoming insecurity; loneliness at top

STOCK MARKET: "In general would I be a buyer at this price? No."

BUYER OF LONG DATED BONDS? “Personally, no. I would not be a buyer and part of it is interest rates. I mean even if inflation was 2%, the 10-year bond should probably be at 4-4.5%. And the short rate should be at 3.25-3.5%. And they're almost there today. So I don't understand what the upside is, even if you think inflation going to go to 2%. But being an economic historian, I can't take out of my mind what happened after the great recession of 74. Deficits were less…And it climbed from 3.5% to 5% to 7% to 9% to 11%.”

ECONOMY/MARKET RISKS: “Make a list of all those really complex long-term geopolitical tectonic plates things that affect the market or may not… I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think.”

MARCH 2020 NEAR DEATH EXPERIENCE: “So I knew at that point in time that there might be goodbye. Yeah.” And what stood out for you in the life that you'd led in that moment? “I remember I spoke to my wife and I told her to call their company and tell them exactly what's happening so they can do what they got to do. But the good news is I didn't have any great regrets. I would be leaving behind great children, great wife, great company. I did the best I can. Of course I made mistakes. But fortunately I recovered from all that.”

ON ANDY BURNHAM: “I want him to succeed. I want to see the UK thrive. I want London to succeed. But the UK, like everybody else and like my own country…you need a strong economy to do that. So the new Chancellor going to need good policies that actually cause growth. So I'm praying that they get policy right and government after government get it wrong.”

ON BANKS LEVY: “I have always thought it was wrong. JP Morgan did not damage the UK and I called the Chancellor at the time. We're a great citizen there. We hire people there. We want to be bigger there. We train people there. We hire veterans there. All of our people get medical and all that stuff like that. And I just thought it was a lack of principle to punish a company that had nothing to do with the crisis. And it's still there seventeen years later. Is that fair to a shareholder? I mean, it may sound great, 'tax the banks', but it's $5 billion that my shareholder's paid on that extra tax. And I just think things like that have adverse consequences.”

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:14 As good as it gets environment
3:08 Risks bigger than people expect
4:28 Resilience despite Iran
9:21 Would not buy bonds here
12:50 AI risk & opportunity
15:16 Not buyer of SP500 here
16:02 SpaceX valuation
17:45 Lessons from Financial Crisis
19:09 Don’t expect success
21:00 Loneliness of leadership
23:25 Commitment to NYC @NYCMayor
25:03 I want @AndyBurnham to succeed
26:40 UK Banks Levy is wrong
29:14 Fighting bureaucracy
33:20 Character most important trait
35:26 Insecurity ruins leaders
39:46 Success is not just your own
43:15 Politics is a very tough game
47:55 Dimon’s founder-like impact & succession
51:30 Near death experience
53:05 Family
56:34 Learn, learn, learn – from history & people

@jpmorgan @Chase @chase_uk @JPMorganAM

[Overton @overton_news]

This is one of the most important moments ever aired on CNBC.

Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya says the media lied to millions of Americans about President Trump, and that after going back to the original source material, he realized he had been completely misled about Trump’s character.

PALIHAPITIYA: “The reality is that most of us were lied to by the media about President Trump.”

“And if you just go back to the source material, you should take away two things.”

“One, he didn’t say half the things he said, and two, why did these other people just fabricate what they wanted to say so that they could essentially assassinate his character?”

“I think that that second thing is completely unacceptable in America, and there’s still been no repercussions, really.”

“I took the time to learn about it. I admitted where…you know, the way that I met him was, I admitted on the pod, which, you know, has millions of viewers.”

“And I said, I got it totally wrong because I went and I watched Charlottesville.”

“And, you know, the first person to call me? President Trump.”

“And I got to know him and I put the phone down, I called my wife, and I said, we got it TOTALLY, totally wrong. We were lied to.”

“And then I got to know him and he is fantastic!”

@chamath

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

Ex-Citadel PM Rich Falk-Wallace (@richfalkwallace) on why 90% of hedge fund blowups are portfolio construction — not bad ideas.

Rich Falk-Wallace (PM @ Citadel | Viking Global | Silver Point | Now founder & CEO of Arcana @ArcanaAnalytics — risk & portfolio software used by ~7 of the 10 largest multi-manager hedge funds)

"When they blow up, the story is never 'Shucks, I actually am not as brilliant as I was before.' What they got wrong was risk, portfolio construction."

We cover:
- Why 90% of PM failures come from sizing & portfolio construction, not thesis quality
- The only two ways to survive long-term: extreme hit rate/slugging, or managing ex-ante correlation
- The math of 10 pods long the same trade: factor bets compound, idio bets diversify
- Why LTCM is the classic backward-looking correlation failure — and why ex-ante is the whole job
- The paradox: "pure fundamental" concentrated funds take the biggest factor bets (up to 80% R²)
- Why the best PMs treat every factor exposure like a stock position — same limits, same diligence
- Sharpe ratio as a t-statistic against the null hypothesis that you have no skill
- The tiger cub who moved to a pod seat and said it felt like playing a video game
- Are junior analysts screwed? Dispersion, not extinction
- His contrarian take: capital is opening up beyond the Big Four via SMAs

Highlights:
(00:00) Intro
(01:10) The real job of a hedge fund PM: a product sold to allocators
(02:52) The 90% failure vector: risk leakage, not bad theses
(10:25) Two ways out: hit rate/slugging vs. managing correlations
(18:17) Factor bets compound, idio diversifies: why 80% idio becomes 60% at scale
(27:33) Factor models as the "perfect benchmark" for every stock at every moment
(38:57) The old-school PM who calls factors bullshit — Rich's answer
(44:48) Treat factors like stock positions: limits, diligence, sizing
(55:29) Why concentrated "pure fundamental" books take the biggest factor bets
(01:05:34) Are junior analysts screwed? AI, mock books, & dispersion
(01:15:52) Contrarian take: SMA capital opening up beyond the Big Four
(01:19:42) The #1 new-launch killer: trying to do too many things at once

[1776 Live @250YearsAgoLive]

Paine is most famous for “COMMON SENSE,” released in January:

[1776 Live @250YearsAgoLive]

Thomas Paine publishes an open letter in the Pennsylvania Evening Post, under the name “Republicus,” which advocates for the name “United States of America” for the new nation now emerging.

This is the first time such a term has been used.

[bodila @51bodila]

ex-CEO of Goldman Sachs asks Paul Tudor: "you lost everything twice - father said quit - turned down Harvard - how did you make $100M in one day?"

he revealed the strategy behind all of it - that still work today

- ex-CEO of Goldman Sachs was the only CEO whose bank survived in 2008

- Paul Tudor Jones was the only trader who made $100M/day during the 1987 crash

now they sit together and discuss life and trading principles

"it's not a career - it's a calling. let life pull you where it wants "

bookmark & watch today ↓

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

One agentic workflow now does 1,000 hours of hedge fund analyst work.

Aakarsh Ramchandi founded the data team @ Third Point, built screening engines @ FactSet, & now builds agentic research tools @ RavenPack.

"There's gonna be a full convergence of quant and qual. Most discretionary analysts I know are somewhere in their Claude journey — and the quants are going the other way around."

We cover:
- Year one at Third Point: onboarding 100 data sets with a team of 4 — & why they kept point-in-time copies of every vendor feed to catch panels that silently changed overnight
- The Dan Loeb pitch story — a 45-page deck, six weeks of work, he stops at page 26, asks one question, & the whole thesis breaks
- "Kind but not nice" — the zero-politics office where everyone gets corrected by elite people daily
- Why analysts don't want your forecast — they want facts in Excel, red-green-blue, formatted their way
- Hedging a concentrated activist book with alt-data short baskets built from a 400-500 factor model
- Why Nvidia broke the Barra model — & building custom semiconductor factors instead
- The agentic earnings preview: 8-9 step workflows, 35M tokens per run, ~1,000 hours of analyst work encoded
- Self-improving loops — agents reviewing their own last 10 traces & patching their mistakes
- The WorldQuant hackathon: 7,000 quants turning unstructured text into 35M unique time series

Highlights:
(00:00) Intro
(01:38) Founding Third Point's data team in 2017
(03:55) Six months building point-in-time data infrastructure
(06:20) How an event-driven fund actually uses alt data
(12:40) Team structure & the original forward deployed engineer
(17:10) Nobody wants your forecast — just give it to them in Excel
(19:35) Measuring signals: direction, point estimates & confidence intervals
(24:05) Working with Dan Loeb — the elite bullshit detector
(26:05) The page-26 "Why?" story
(28:55) 5AM Saturdays & discipline that compounds
(32:05) Kind but not nice: the zero-politics office
(33:55) How an activist creates alpha by re-running the business
(43:10) Hedging the book with alt-data short baskets
(50:40) Why Nvidia broke standard factor models
(56:25) From search to RAG to agents
(1:04:20) Opus 4.5 changes the game: 70% → 90% accuracy
(1:11:00) Anatomy of an agentic earnings preview — 35M tokens per run
(1:17:20) Ambient agents: the always-on Jarvis
(1:19:40) Self-improving loops & encoded judgment
(1:20:20) Finance in 10 years: the full convergence of quant & qual

[Loofy @Loofyb0i]

Howard Marks has been writing investment memos for 30 years that Warren Buffett says he reads first thing every time.

In 36 minutes he explains why every bull market ends the same way - and where he thinks we are right now.

36-min. Oaktree. TBPN.

Bookmark & watch - the clearest market cycle read you'll find in 2026

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

If you're thinking about buying SpaceX at IPO, Brad Gerstner's answer to that exact question: 30%.

@altcap on @theallinpod: not 100%, not 50%. Deploy 30% of fresh capital at these levels. The reasoning: 14 levered ETFs are queued for SpaceX IPO day at a $1.75 trillion implied valuation. That's the kind of product launch that only happens when retail enthusiasm peaks.

Gavin Baker's framing: current conditions are 2021, not 1999. The froth is real but not extreme. A 10-20% correction in public semis would still mean 30-40% drawdowns in high-beta SpaceX-adjacent names. If you're new to the position, that's a real duration test.

The structural bull case - Gavin's mutual fund demand wall - is real. But it materializes at IPO, not in secondaries today. The 6% premium you pay now is not the same as the institutional bid that comes later.

Full position-sizing framework from the panel:
https://t.co/JixFmayoKP
Source: All-In Podcast - https://t.co/okThY983z8

[Сarm1ne @carm1nee]

Dan Loeb tried to raise $10 million to start his hedge fund - nobody on Wall Street would give it to him

his mother gave him $250,000 - he put in every dollar he had, $340,000 - scraped together $3.3 million from four people

first month he was up 8% - that was the last time he ever felt like a fraud

$3.3 million from four people who believed in him - today Dan Loeb manages $30 billion

"when we were small our main tool was shame and humor - I was the original troll - Wall Street Bets before Wall Street Bets existed"

bookmark and watch the full interview ↓

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

SpaceX

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

SpaceX IPO info

[Loofy @Loofyb0i]

Scott Bessent spent 20 years at Soros betting against governments that destroyed their own economies.

Now he IS the US government's economic policy.

56-min and you'll understand every major macro decision coming out of Washington in 2026

bookmark - the most interesting Treasury Secretary interview in a decade

[gemchanger @gemchange_ltd]

Watch this before you risk another dollar. 1h20min. a16z.

Lloyd Blankfein explains that AI is creating systems even the pros can't fully understand anymore.

The man who ran Goldman through the crisis that killed Lehman, Bear and everyone else who got reckless.

Bookmark it. Give it the full watch this week, no excuses.
Then read the article below.

[Сarm1ne @carm1nee]

Bill Ackman bought a third of a $20 billion company after it crashed to $100 million - the stock went from 34 cents to $34

it's the most contrarian bet in modern Wall Street history

"I called the CEO, he didn't return my call - I called again, he didn't return my call - six weeks later they spun off the company, the CEO got fired, then he called to thank me for his exit package"

"there are analogies to 2000 - people got excited about internet stocks and Berkshire traded at the lowest valuation in its history because people said that's all old stuff

a similar thing is happening today to Amazon, Meta, Microsoft - they're undervalued"

bookmark and watch it today - 29 minutes that will change how you think about AI, markets, and what makes a great investment ↓

[bodila @51bodila]

Paul Tudor and Ray Dalio both hit bottom - Tudor lost 60% of client money, Dalio borrowed $4K from his father - now they run two of the greatest funds

- on one couch, together they held a workshop on how to trade right now

they said "the system is broken"

37-min masterclass between two legends who built the best funds in the world

bookmark & watch - one video will teach you more than any course from fake traders

[bodila @51bodila]

Paul Tudor made $100M in one day, Stan Druckenmiller made 1 trade that broke the Bank of England

on one RobinHood stage two $10B+ hedge fund CEOs gave a 30-minute trading masterclass

completely free - two of the greatest traders in history will show you the most important rules of trading

bookmark & watch - this is better than any paid course from fake traders

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

We found the clip of @andrewrsorkin breaking the Dan Loeb Sony story live on CNBC in 2013, 15 minutes after it happened.

It was one of my favorite stories from the conversation with Dan.

"The first time we invested in it, it was basically a conglomerate.

It had obviously the main Sony studios. It had a semiconductor business, a life insurance business, the consumer electronics. So we advised them to separate these businesses.

We met with the management team. We had a big deck that we went through.

At the end of the meeting, we told them, "Well, in the interest of transparency, we shared our investment thesis with The New York Times."

They went into a panic when we told them about that.

Andrew Ross Sorkin wrote the story and agreed to embargo it until the Japanese market closed.

The story came out, and they had prearranged us to go on a tour of their innovation center.

But before we went on the innovation center, Kaz Hirai (CEO of Sony) looked at me, he says, "You told The New York Times?"

I said, "Yeah, but just The New York Times, nobody else."

He says, "Okay, just The New York Times."

It was wild. We were walking around the innovation center looking at our BlackBerrys when the story went everywhere.

They really pushed back on everything that we recommended. It took them about five years, and I think one by one, they've done many of the things."

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My conversation with @DanielSLoeb1, his first ever podcast and one I've been wanting to do for years.

Dan started Third Point in 1995 with $3 million. Today the firm manages over $24 billion across equities, credit, venture, and insurance.

Along the way he wrote some of the most iconic activist letters.

We discuss:
- Why deep value stopped working
- The power of writing
- The Twitter and XAI credit trades
- Lessons from FTX and Danaher
- The Sony and Sotheby's stories
- What makes a great analyst today
- The importance of kindness

I feel lucky we all get to learn from one of the greats.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:48 Macro Views and Tech Trends
5:13 The Roots of Third Point
10:30 Evolving to Quality and Thematic Investing
19:07 Market Psychology and Inefficiencies
24:10 Good and Bad Corporate Governance
29:19 Activism
31:23 Sotheby's
41:37 AI
44:28 Sony
52:50 Danaher's Operating System
56:31 Building an Insurance Business
59:25 FTX
1:05:17 What Makes a Great Analyst Today
1:07:24 The Next Decade
1:10:00 Kindest Thing